The NIT.
Say it aloud.
Isn’t it beautiful?
Note for the Syracuse, VCU, and St. Bonaventure fans we know read this: You’re the first three out. Also, thank you for reading. Appreciate you all.
Our NIT Bracketology is freshly updated for the weekend ahead. Some highlights:
- Joe upped the model from “light” to “medium,” which should theoretically make it more accurate on the NCA* Tournament/NIT bubble. As a result, we lost Villanova, Butler, and our good friends in Reno. We got Colorado and Xavier back, though, as well as the NIT GOAT—St. John’s. We’re excited to have those three aimed our way, but we do really want Butler. *sigh.* It’s hard cheering for the more selective NCAA-sanctioned postseason tournament.
- The Big Ten is up to six bids, which is quite literally 60% of the Big Ten. The ACC climbed back to five. The Pac-12 is up to four. The AAC has three despite not having automatic bid access. How’s that for American ingenuity?
- We have something weird going on with the MVC where all three of its good teams are popping up in our field. Consider Indiana State a placeholder for the trio of Indiana State/Samford/UC Irvine. We don’t know who it’ll be, but we should get one of those beautiful groups of young men.
- The A-10 is down to a zero-bid league, which is always funny, but VCU’s the first team out, so there’s some risk they’ll ruin the joke. We don’t think we’re going to get Dayton, for the same reason we won’t get Purdue or UConn. (Market inefficiencies.)
- In-state first round matchups: Virginia vs. JMU, Drake vs. Iowa, St. John’s vs. Princeton (basically). Old Big East matchup: Providence vs. Rutgers. The Kevin Willard Bowl: Maryland vs. Seton Hall.
- Climbing in: North Texas, NC State, Rutgers, LSU.
- Falling out: Louisiana Tech, St. Bonaventure, Richmond, Georgia.
- Rising out (sad balloons, floating away): Villanova, Butler, Nevada, Boise State, Samford (kind of).
- Falling in: Xavier, Indiana State, Colorado, St. John’s, Utah.
- LSU would not be in the field without automatic bids. Kansas State and UCF wouldn’t have home games. James Madison, Washington, and Oregon would have home games.
Last Four In, First Four Out (on the high side):
- In, from least safe to safest: Virginia, Utah, Providence, Nebraska
- Out, from closest to furthest: Nevada, Boise State, Utah State, Cincinnati
Last Four In, First Four Out (on the low side):
- In, from least safe to safest: Rutgers, Memphis, NC State, Miami.
- Out, from closest to furthest: VCU, Syracuse, St. Bonaventure, Florida State.
In the mix:
- Conference tournament favorites aimed at NIT at-large territory but not in our bracket: Grand Canyon, McNeese, UC Irvine, Samford.
- Conference tournament favorites who are close, but too low: Louisiana Tech
- Fifth through twelfth at-large teams out: Richmond, Georgia, Yale, Appalachian State, UCLA, UNLV, Boston College, UMass.
