Cole Custer is a rookie. He’s one of six on the circuit this year. He hasn’t been the best of those six. Until yesterday. Yesterday, Cole Custer was the best of all the drivers, and became the first rookie to win a Cup Series race since 2016.
Following a Matt Kenseth spin, the race restarted from caution with three laps remaining. Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. were out front. Custer was in fifth—he’s the 41 Car, directly in front of the 21 as this clip begins:
After a four-wide pass as the leaders took the white flag, Custer pulled away. Excitement ensued:
It wasn’t the most exciting race before those last three laps. Aric Almirola led for a long, long time, but once he fell out of the lead, he fell fast. Truex held court for much of Stage Three, but lost it to a surging Harvick, who’d looked a non-factor early in the day. The biggest moment of intrigue came when Brad Keselowski spun Jimmie Johnson on a restart with 19 to go:
Johnson chirped Keselowski later on Twitter, but it’s possible he was at least slightly joking. It did look like he may have put the 2 car in an impossible spot by blocking too late, but…we like Jimmie Johnson, we aren’t sure about Brad Keselowski, and we *love* NASCAR beef, so if Johnson’s serious, we’re on board.
With Custer’s win, Johnson’s path to the playoffs via points narrows. In addition to missing last week’s race with the coronavirus, Johnson had a good result at Charlotte disqualified when his car failed the post-race inspection. Now, he’s 15th in the standings, and with Custer outside the top 16 (he’s tied for 20th) but qualified by way of a win, Johnson’s the last man in, and sits only 24 points ahead of Austin Dillon. If another driver outside the top 15 wins a race, or if Dillon closes the gap (or if Erik Jones or Tyler Reddick—the top rookie in the standings—does so), and if Johnson doesn’t win a race, he might spend his final postseason without anything to race for.
On the flip side, Johnson’s only six points behind William Byron for a cushioned spot, and only 23 points behind Clint Bowyer for a doubly cushioned spot. He could also very well win a race. So, the likely scenario with what I believe is nine races to go before the playoffs begin in September is that Johnson makes the cut. It’s just not an overwhelming likelihood.
