Movelor: Single-Game Predictions

This page is archived from the end of the 2023 season. For all 2024 Movelor information, please visit this page.

Movelor is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system. Over the 2022 season, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate per game than the average closing spread in Las Vegas. This year, it’s been a little closer than that. If you’re looking for details on how Movelor works, what its strengths are, and what its limitations are, those can be found here. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including College Football Playoff probabilities, that can be found through this menu.

Here’s how Movelor performed in 2023.

  • FBS vs. FBS games: 73.1% correct winner; 12.9 points average absolute error
  • All FBS games: 76.3% correct winner; 12.9 points average absolute error
  • FCS vs. FCS games: 70.1% correct winner; 12.9 points average absolute error
  • All Division I games: 74.1% correct winner; 13.1 points average absolute error

Here are its predictions for upcoming games.

DateFavoriteFavorite Win ProbabilityUnderdogUnderdog Win ProbabilityPredicted Margin
1/8/2024Michigan78.3%Washington21.7%11.3
1/7/2024South Dakota State76.7%Montana23.3%10.5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Begin typing your search term above and press enter to search. Press ESC to cancel.