Our Movelor Week 9 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about half a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly a point behind the spread.
Picks are below, but first, a few observations:
We’re down to nine undefeated FBS teams, with eight of those nine in action this week. Between those eight, Movelor expects 1.4 losses, meaning it leans more towards two going down than only one. Here are its lines on those games, from most at risk to least. You’ll notice that only one undefeated plays at home, giving us a strong probability of seeing a field get stormed.
- Liberty +1.9 at Western Kentucky
- Oklahoma –13.0 at Kansas
- Air Force –16.4 at Colorado State
- Georgia –16.6 vs. Florida
- James Madison –17.5 vs. Old Dominion
- Florida State –17.8 at Wake Forest
- Ohio State –18.5 at Wisconsin
- Washington –26.9 at Stanford
Our model gives fourteen teams better than a 1-in-100 chance of making the playoff (you could also use 1-in-25 for this cutoff right now). Of those fourteen, eleven are in action, with two playing each other. In the other nine games, Movelor expects us to see 1.1 upsets. Here are those lines for games not listed above. Oregon vs. Utah is the one with two contenders.
- Oregon –1.7 at Utah
- Oregon State –6.9 at Arizona
- Texas –17.1 vs. BYU
- Mississippi –28.8 vs. Vanderbilt
- Penn State –39.3 vs. Indiana
Other games of note, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:
- Louisville –3.9 vs. Duke
- USC –8.3 at Cal
- Tennessee –11.8 at Kentucky
- UCLA –26.1 vs. Colorado
- Boise State –1.1 vs. Wyoming
- Georgia State –2.8 at Georgia Southern
- Ohio –4.2 vs. Miami (OH)
- Troy –11.6 at Texas State
- South Alabama –11.9 vs. Louisiana
- Fresno State –14.3 vs. UNLV
- Tulane –14.4 at Rice
- Montana State –7.3 at Idaho
- South Dakota State –16.4 at South Dakota
The biggest favorite this week is Penn State. The closest matchup is Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse, where the Hokies are favored by only about a seventh of a point. Here’s the full list:
Date | Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
10/24/23 | New Mexico State | 56.0% | Louisiana Tech | 44.0% | 2.1 |
10/24/23 | Western Kentucky | 55.2% | Liberty | 44.8% | 1.9 |
10/25/23 | Jacksonville State | 88.2% | FIU | 11.8% | 17.8 |
10/25/23 | Sam Houston | 56.9% | UTEP | 43.1% | 2.4 |
10/26/23 | Virginia Tech | 50.4% | Syracuse | 49.6% | 0.1 |
10/26/23 | Georgia State | 58.0% | Georgia Southern | 42.0% | 2.8 |
10/27/23 | Florida Atlantic | 64.3% | Charlotte | 35.7% | 5.2 |
10/28/23 | Penn State | 98.9% | Indiana | 1.1% | 39.3 |
10/28/23 | Army | 95.3% | UMass | 4.7% | 26.5 |
10/28/23 | Kansas State | 91.7% | Houston | 8.3% | 21.2 |
10/28/23 | SMU | 91.5% | Tulsa | 8.5% | 21.0 |
10/28/23 | Boston College | 83.3% | UConn | 16.7% | 14.2 |
10/28/23 | Texas A&M | 82.8% | South Carolina | 17.2% | 13.9 |
10/28/23 | UCF | 54.7% | West Virginia | 45.3% | 1.7 |
10/28/23 | Maryland | 77.7% | Northwestern | 22.3% | 11.0 |
10/28/23 | Oklahoma | 81.4% | Kansas | 18.6% | 13.0 |
10/28/23 | Florida State | 88.2% | Wake Forest | 11.8% | 17.8 |
10/28/23 | Eastern Michigan | 57.5% | Western Michigan | 42.5% | 2.7 |
10/28/23 | Clemson | 72.0% | NC State | 28.0% | 8.3 |
10/28/23 | Memphis | 65.6% | North Texas | 34.4% | 5.7 |
10/28/23 | Notre Dame | 91.3% | Pitt | 8.7% | 20.7 |
10/28/23 | Texas | 87.4% | BYU | 12.6% | 17.1 |
10/28/23 | Appalachian State | 85.0% | Southern Miss | 15.0% | 15.3 |
10/28/23 | UTSA | 79.5% | East Carolina | 20.5% | 11.9 |
10/28/23 | Miami (FL) | 78.6% | Virginia | 21.4% | 11.5 |
10/28/23 | Minnesota | 69.4% | Michigan State | 30.6% | 7.2 |
10/28/23 | Ohio | 61.6% | Miami (OH) | 38.4% | 4.2 |
10/28/23 | Louisville | 60.9% | Duke | 39.1% | 3.9 |
10/28/23 | Auburn | 58.7% | Mississippi State | 41.3% | 3.1 |
10/28/23 | Nebraska | 56.0% | Purdue | 44.0% | 2.1 |
10/28/23 | Oregon | 54.9% | Utah | 45.1% | 1.7 |
10/28/23 | Iowa State | 55.4% | Baylor | 44.6% | 1.9 |
10/28/23 | Georgia | 86.8% | Florida | 13.2% | 16.6 |
10/28/23 | USC | 72.0% | California | 28.0% | 8.3 |
10/28/23 | Tulane | 83.7% | Rice | 16.3% | 14.4 |
10/28/23 | South Alabama | 79.3% | Louisiana | 20.7% | 11.9 |
10/28/23 | Louisiana Monroe | 63.6% | Arkansas State | 36.4% | 4.9 |
10/28/23 | Boise State | 53.2% | Wyoming | 46.8% | 1.1 |
10/28/23 | Coastal Carolina | 62.6% | Marshall | 37.4% | 4.5 |
10/28/23 | Troy | 78.8% | Texas State | 21.2% | 11.6 |
10/28/23 | Tennessee | 79.1% | Kentucky | 20.9% | 11.8 |
10/28/23 | Air Force | 86.5% | Colorado State | 13.5% | 16.4 |
10/28/23 | Washington | 95.5% | Stanford | 4.5% | 26.9 |
10/28/23 | Mississippi | 96.3% | Vanderbilt | 3.7% | 28.8 |
10/28/23 | UCLA | 95.1% | Colorado | 4.9% | 26.1 |
10/28/23 | Ohio State | 89.1% | Wisconsin | 10.9% | 18.5 |
10/28/23 | James Madison | 87.9% | Old Dominion | 12.1% | 17.5 |
10/28/23 | Oklahoma State | 82.0% | Cincinnati | 18.0% | 13.4 |
10/28/23 | Washington State | 73.5% | Arizona State | 26.5% | 9.0 |
10/28/23 | North Carolina | 81.4% | Georgia Tech | 18.6% | 13.0 |
10/28/23 | Fresno State | 83.5% | UNLV | 16.5% | 14.3 |
10/28/23 | Nevada | 72.7% | New Mexico | 27.3% | 8.6 |
10/28/23 | Oregon State | 68.7% | Arizona | 31.3% | 6.9 |
10/28/23 | San Jose State | 83.6% | Hawaii | 16.4% | 14.4 |
10/26/23 | Central Connecticut State | 55.4% | LIU | 44.6% | 1.9 |
10/26/23 | North Carolina Central | 86.9% | South Carolina State | 13.1% | 16.7 |
10/27/23 | Penn | 78.6% | Brown | 21.4% | 11.5 |
10/28/23 | Yale | 79.9% | Columbia | 20.1% | 12.2 |
10/28/23 | Tennessee Tech | 53.0% | Robert Morris | 47.0% | 1.1 |
10/28/23 | Stonehill | 64.0% | Wagner | 36.0% | 5.1 |
10/28/23 | Duquesne | 73.2% | Sacred Heart | 26.8% | 8.8 |
10/28/23 | Howard | 85.9% | Delaware State | 14.1% | 16.0 |
10/28/23 | Lafayette | 83.7% | Georgetown | 16.3% | 14.4 |
10/28/23 | Butler | 90.2% | Valparaiso | 9.8% | 19.5 |
10/28/23 | Drake | 79.2% | Stetson | 20.8% | 11.8 |
10/28/23 | Colgate | 77.2% | Bucknell | 22.8% | 10.7 |
10/28/23 | William & Mary | 68.1% | Monmouth | 31.9% | 6.7 |
10/28/23 | Saint Francis (PA) | 57.2% | Merrimack | 42.8% | 2.6 |
10/28/23 | Illinois State | 53.6% | Northern Iowa | 46.4% | 1.3 |
10/28/23 | New Hampshire | 62.8% | Rhode Island | 37.2% | 4.6 |
10/28/23 | Holy Cross | 64.4% | Fordham | 35.6% | 5.2 |
10/28/23 | Albany | 65.0% | Maine | 35.0% | 5.5 |
10/28/23 | Princeton | 67.8% | Cornell | 32.2% | 6.6 |
10/28/23 | Delaware | 71.6% | Towson | 28.4% | 8.1 |
10/28/23 | UT Martin | 62.3% | Gardner-Webb | 37.7% | 4.4 |
10/28/23 | Chattanooga | 89.9% | VMI | 10.1% | 19.2 |
10/28/23 | North Dakota | 95.9% | Indiana State | 4.1% | 27.8 |
10/28/23 | Furman | 95.6% | East Tennessee State | 4.4% | 27.1 |
10/28/23 | Villanova | 94.9% | Stony Brook | 5.1% | 25.7 |
10/28/23 | St. Thomas | 84.6% | Marist | 15.4% | 15.0 |
10/28/23 | Youngstown State | 75.5% | Missouri State | 24.5% | 9.9 |
10/28/23 | Hampton | 53.7% | North Carolina A&T | 46.3% | 1.3 |
10/28/23 | Norfolk State | 51.1% | Morgan State | 48.9% | 0.4 |
10/28/23 | South Dakota State | 86.5% | South Dakota | 13.5% | 16.4 |
10/28/23 | Western Carolina | 69.1% | Mercer | 30.9% | 7.1 |
10/28/23 | Kennesaw State | 97.5% | Lincoln University (CA) | 2.5% | 32.4 |
10/28/23 | Montana | 96.7% | Northern Colorado | 3.3% | 29.8 |
10/28/23 | Samford | 95.4% | The Citadel | 4.6% | 26.8 |
10/28/23 | Alcorn State | 89.4% | Mississippi Valley State | 10.6% | 18.8 |
10/28/23 | Tennessee State | 76.9% | Lindenwood | 23.1% | 10.6 |
10/28/23 | Grambling State | 65.8% | Bethune-Cookman | 34.2% | 5.8 |
10/28/23 | Southern Utah | 57.2% | Abilene Christian | 42.8% | 2.5 |
10/28/23 | Texas A&M-Commerce | 65.2% | Houston Christian | 34.8% | 5.5 |
10/28/23 | Southeast Missouri State | 67.4% | Nicholls | 32.6% | 6.4 |
10/28/23 | Jackson State | 92.6% | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 7.4% | 22.2 |
10/28/23 | North Dakota State | 98.5% | Murray State | 1.5% | 36.6 |
10/28/23 | Richmond | 77.6% | Campbell | 22.4% | 11.0 |
10/28/23 | Alabama A&M | 55.9% | Alabama State | 44.1% | 2.1 |
10/28/23 | Austin Peay | 95.6% | North Alabama | 4.4% | 27.1 |
10/28/23 | Florida A&M | 89.3% | Prairie View A&M | 10.7% | 18.7 |
10/28/23 | Harvard | 75.3% | Dartmouth | 24.7% | 9.8 |
10/28/23 | Portland State | 51.0% | Eastern Washington | 49.0% | 0.4 |
10/28/23 | Charleston Southern | 50.8% | Bryant | 49.2% | 0.3 |
10/28/23 | Montana State | 69.6% | Idaho | 30.4% | 7.3 |
10/28/23 | UC Davis | 70.1% | Northern Arizona | 29.9% | 7.5 |
10/28/23 | Incarnate Word | 94.0% | Lamar | 6.0% | 24.2 |
10/28/23 | Southern Illinois | 96.8% | Western Illinois | 3.2% | 30.1 |
10/28/23 | Central Arkansas | 78.8% | Tarleton | 21.2% | 11.6 |
10/28/23 | Southern | 77.7% | Texas Southern | 22.3% | 11.0 |
10/28/23 | San Diego | 66.9% | Morehead State | 33.1% | 6.2 |
10/28/23 | Davidson | 94.3% | Presbyterian | 5.7% | 24.8 |
10/28/23 | McNeese | 70.4% | Northwestern State | 29.6% | 7.6 |
10/28/23 | Eastern Kentucky | 60.9% | Utah Tech | 39.1% | 3.9 |
10/28/23 | Sacramento State | 90.1% | Idaho State | 9.9% | 19.5 |