The Barking Crow

Joe Stunardi

Movelor Picks: Week 9, 2023

Joe Stunardi

Our Movelor Week 9 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about half a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly a point behind the spread.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

We’re down to nine undefeated FBS teams, with eight of those nine in action this week. Between those eight, Movelor expects 1.4 losses, meaning it leans more towards two going down than only one. Here are its lines on those games, from most at risk to least. You’ll notice that only one undefeated plays at home, giving us a strong probability of seeing a field get stormed.

  • Liberty +1.9 at Western Kentucky
  • Oklahoma –13.0 at Kansas
  • Air Force –16.4 at Colorado State
  • Georgia –16.6 vs. Florida
  • James Madison –17.5 vs. Old Dominion
  • Florida State –17.8 at Wake Forest
  • Ohio State –18.5 at Wisconsin
  • Washington –26.9 at Stanford

Our model gives fourteen teams better than a 1-in-100 chance of making the playoff (you could also use 1-in-25 for this cutoff right now). Of those fourteen, eleven are in action, with two playing each other. In the other nine games, Movelor expects us to see 1.1 upsets. Here are those lines for games not listed above. Oregon vs. Utah is the one with two contenders.

  • Oregon –1.7 at Utah
  • Oregon State –6.9 at Arizona
  • Texas –17.1 vs. BYU
  • Mississippi –28.8 vs. Vanderbilt
  • Penn State –39.3 vs. Indiana

Other games of note, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:

  • Louisville –3.9 vs. Duke
  • USC –8.3 at Cal
  • Tennessee –11.8 at Kentucky
  • UCLA –26.1 vs. Colorado
  • Boise State –1.1 vs. Wyoming
  • Georgia State –2.8 at Georgia Southern
  • Ohio –4.2 vs. Miami (OH)
  • Troy –11.6 at Texas State
  • South Alabama –11.9 vs. Louisiana
  • Fresno State –14.3 vs. UNLV
  • Tulane –14.4 at Rice
  • Montana State –7.3 at Idaho
  • South Dakota State –16.4 at South Dakota

The biggest favorite this week is Penn State. The closest matchup is Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse, where the Hokies are favored by only about a seventh of a point. Here’s the full list:

DateFavoriteFavorite Win ProbabilityUnderdogUnderdog Win ProbabilityPredicted Margin
10/24/23New Mexico State56.0%Louisiana Tech44.0%2.1
10/24/23Western Kentucky55.2%Liberty44.8%1.9
10/25/23Jacksonville State88.2%FIU11.8%17.8
10/25/23Sam Houston56.9%UTEP43.1%2.4
10/26/23Virginia Tech50.4%Syracuse49.6%0.1
10/26/23Georgia State58.0%Georgia Southern42.0%2.8
10/27/23Florida Atlantic64.3%Charlotte35.7%5.2
10/28/23Penn State98.9%Indiana1.1%39.3
10/28/23Army95.3%UMass4.7%26.5
10/28/23Kansas State91.7%Houston8.3%21.2
10/28/23SMU91.5%Tulsa8.5%21.0
10/28/23Boston College83.3%UConn16.7%14.2
10/28/23Texas A&M82.8%South Carolina17.2%13.9
10/28/23UCF54.7%West Virginia45.3%1.7
10/28/23Maryland77.7%Northwestern22.3%11.0
10/28/23Oklahoma81.4%Kansas18.6%13.0
10/28/23Florida State88.2%Wake Forest11.8%17.8
10/28/23Eastern Michigan57.5%Western Michigan42.5%2.7
10/28/23Clemson72.0%NC State28.0%8.3
10/28/23Memphis65.6%North Texas34.4%5.7
10/28/23Notre Dame91.3%Pitt8.7%20.7
10/28/23Texas87.4%BYU12.6%17.1
10/28/23Appalachian State85.0%Southern Miss15.0%15.3
10/28/23UTSA79.5%East Carolina20.5%11.9
10/28/23Miami (FL)78.6%Virginia21.4%11.5
10/28/23Minnesota69.4%Michigan State30.6%7.2
10/28/23Ohio61.6%Miami (OH)38.4%4.2
10/28/23Louisville60.9%Duke39.1%3.9
10/28/23Auburn58.7%Mississippi State41.3%3.1
10/28/23Nebraska56.0%Purdue44.0%2.1
10/28/23Oregon54.9%Utah45.1%1.7
10/28/23Iowa State55.4%Baylor44.6%1.9
10/28/23Georgia86.8%Florida13.2%16.6
10/28/23USC72.0%California28.0%8.3
10/28/23Tulane83.7%Rice16.3%14.4
10/28/23South Alabama79.3%Louisiana20.7%11.9
10/28/23Louisiana Monroe63.6%Arkansas State36.4%4.9
10/28/23Boise State53.2%Wyoming46.8%1.1
10/28/23Coastal Carolina62.6%Marshall37.4%4.5
10/28/23Troy78.8%Texas State21.2%11.6
10/28/23Tennessee79.1%Kentucky20.9%11.8
10/28/23Air Force86.5%Colorado State13.5%16.4
10/28/23Washington95.5%Stanford4.5%26.9
10/28/23Mississippi96.3%Vanderbilt3.7%28.8
10/28/23UCLA95.1%Colorado4.9%26.1
10/28/23Ohio State89.1%Wisconsin10.9%18.5
10/28/23James Madison87.9%Old Dominion12.1%17.5
10/28/23Oklahoma State82.0%Cincinnati18.0%13.4
10/28/23Washington State73.5%Arizona State26.5%9.0
10/28/23North Carolina81.4%Georgia Tech18.6%13.0
10/28/23Fresno State83.5%UNLV16.5%14.3
10/28/23Nevada72.7%New Mexico27.3%8.6
10/28/23Oregon State68.7%Arizona31.3%6.9
10/28/23San Jose State83.6%Hawaii16.4%14.4
10/26/23Central Connecticut State55.4%LIU44.6%1.9
10/26/23North Carolina Central86.9%South Carolina State13.1%16.7
10/27/23Penn78.6%Brown21.4%11.5
10/28/23Yale79.9%Columbia20.1%12.2
10/28/23Tennessee Tech53.0%Robert Morris47.0%1.1
10/28/23Stonehill64.0%Wagner36.0%5.1
10/28/23Duquesne73.2%Sacred Heart26.8%8.8
10/28/23Howard85.9%Delaware State14.1%16.0
10/28/23Lafayette83.7%Georgetown16.3%14.4
10/28/23Butler90.2%Valparaiso9.8%19.5
10/28/23Drake79.2%Stetson20.8%11.8
10/28/23Colgate77.2%Bucknell22.8%10.7
10/28/23William & Mary68.1%Monmouth31.9%6.7
10/28/23Saint Francis (PA)57.2%Merrimack42.8%2.6
10/28/23Illinois State53.6%Northern Iowa46.4%1.3
10/28/23New Hampshire62.8%Rhode Island37.2%4.6
10/28/23Holy Cross64.4%Fordham35.6%5.2
10/28/23Albany65.0%Maine35.0%5.5
10/28/23Princeton67.8%Cornell32.2%6.6
10/28/23Delaware71.6%Towson28.4%8.1
10/28/23UT Martin62.3%Gardner-Webb37.7%4.4
10/28/23Chattanooga89.9%VMI10.1%19.2
10/28/23North Dakota95.9%Indiana State4.1%27.8
10/28/23Furman95.6%East Tennessee State4.4%27.1
10/28/23Villanova94.9%Stony Brook5.1%25.7
10/28/23St. Thomas84.6%Marist15.4%15.0
10/28/23Youngstown State75.5%Missouri State24.5%9.9
10/28/23Hampton53.7%North Carolina A&T46.3%1.3
10/28/23Norfolk State51.1%Morgan State48.9%0.4
10/28/23South Dakota State86.5%South Dakota13.5%16.4
10/28/23Western Carolina69.1%Mercer30.9%7.1
10/28/23Kennesaw State97.5%Lincoln University (CA)2.5%32.4
10/28/23Montana96.7%Northern Colorado3.3%29.8
10/28/23Samford95.4%The Citadel4.6%26.8
10/28/23Alcorn State89.4%Mississippi Valley State10.6%18.8
10/28/23Tennessee State76.9%Lindenwood23.1%10.6
10/28/23Grambling State65.8%Bethune-Cookman34.2%5.8
10/28/23Southern Utah57.2%Abilene Christian42.8%2.5
10/28/23Texas A&M-Commerce65.2%Houston Christian34.8%5.5
10/28/23Southeast Missouri State67.4%Nicholls32.6%6.4
10/28/23Jackson State92.6%Arkansas-Pine Bluff7.4%22.2
10/28/23North Dakota State98.5%Murray State1.5%36.6
10/28/23Richmond77.6%Campbell22.4%11.0
10/28/23Alabama A&M55.9%Alabama State44.1%2.1
10/28/23Austin Peay95.6%North Alabama4.4%27.1
10/28/23Florida A&M89.3%Prairie View A&M10.7%18.7
10/28/23Harvard75.3%Dartmouth24.7%9.8
10/28/23Portland State51.0%Eastern Washington49.0%0.4
10/28/23Charleston Southern50.8%Bryant49.2%0.3
10/28/23Montana State69.6%Idaho30.4%7.3
10/28/23UC Davis70.1%Northern Arizona29.9%7.5
10/28/23Incarnate Word94.0%Lamar6.0%24.2
10/28/23Southern Illinois96.8%Western Illinois3.2%30.1
10/28/23Central Arkansas78.8%Tarleton21.2%11.6
10/28/23Southern77.7%Texas Southern22.3%11.0
10/28/23San Diego66.9%Morehead State33.1%6.2
10/28/23Davidson94.3%Presbyterian5.7%24.8
10/28/23McNeese70.4%Northwestern State29.6%7.6
10/28/23Eastern Kentucky60.9%Utah Tech39.1%3.9
10/28/23Sacramento State90.1%Idaho State9.9%19.5
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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