The Barking Crow

Joe Stunardi

Movelor Picks: Week 8, 2023

Joe Stunardi

Our Movelor Week 8 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about a third of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and 0.8 points behind the spread.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

We’re down to eleven FBS teams, with ten of those eleven in action this weekend. There’s one undefeated matchup—Ohio State vs. Penn State—so we’ll exit the week with a maximum of ten undefeateds, but Movelor expects 1.04 others to fall, making nine the likelier number. Here’s the Ohio State/Penn State line, plus the other eight (undefeated teams marked with *):

  • Ohio State* –3.1 vs. Penn State*
  • James Madison* –7.8 at Marshall
  • Air Force* –12.4 at Navy
  • Florida State* –13.4 vs. Duke
  • Liberty* –17.4 vs. Middle Tennessee
  • Michigan* –21.8 at Michigan State
  • North Carolina* –21.8 vs. Virginia
  • Oklahoma* –23.2 vs. UCF
  • Washington* –32.1 vs. Arizona State

Our model gives eighteen teams better than a 1-in-100 chance of making the playoff. Of those eighteen, six play one another and two are idle. Movelor expects 4.90 of the eighteen to go down, meaning we should expect roughly two teams to take damaging losses from teams outside the playoff hunt. Here are the lines for those not already listed (playoff possibilities marked with an *):

  • Utah* –2.5 at USC
  • Alabama* –3.9 vs. Tennessee*
  • Mississippi* –5.0 at Auburn
  • Iowa* –13.5 vs. Minnesota
  • Texas* –16.3 at Houston
  • Oregon* –19.3 vs. Washington State
  • LSU* –24.9 vs. Army

Other games of note, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:

  • Clemson –8.1 at Miami (FL)
  • West Virginia –4.9 vs. Oklahoma State
  • Kansas State –6.9 vs. TCU
  • Tulane –19.8 vs. North Texas
  • Miami (OH) –4.8 vs. Toledo
  • Montana State –8.4 at Sacramento State
  • South Dakota State –16.8 at Southern Illinois
  • Furman –2.5 at Western Carolina

The biggest favorite this week is North Dakota State, favored by 42.9 over Western Illinois. At the FBS level, it’s Washington over Arizona State. The closest matchup is Albany vs. Rhode Island, where URI is favored by only a tenth of a point. At the FBS level, it’s Cincinnati vs. Baylor, where the Bearcats are an even 1.0-point favorite. Here’s the full list:

DateFavoriteFavorite Win ProbabilityUnderdogUnderdog Win ProbabilityPredicted Margin
10/17/23Liberty87.8%Middle Tennessee12.2%17.4
10/17/23Western Kentucky57.8%Jacksonville State42.2%2.8
10/17/23South Alabama90.7%Southern Miss9.3%20.0
10/18/23Sam Houston84.4%FIU15.6%14.9
10/18/23New Mexico State53.8%UTEP46.2%1.4
10/19/23Tulsa70.2%Rice29.8%7.6
10/19/23James Madison70.8%Marshall29.2%7.8
10/20/23SMU93.8%Temple6.2%23.9
10/21/23Cincinnati52.7%Baylor47.3%1.0
10/21/23Memphis55.5%UAB44.5%1.9
10/21/23Ohio State58.7%Penn State41.3%3.1
10/21/23Rutgers64.5%Indiana35.5%5.3
10/21/23Georgia Tech67.2%Boston College32.8%6.3
10/21/23Arkansas75.2%Mississippi State24.8%9.8
10/21/23Air Force80.3%Navy19.7%12.4
10/21/23Ohio81.1%Western Michigan18.9%12.8
10/21/23Oklahoma93.3%UCF6.7%23.2
10/21/23Bowling Green State74.1%Akron25.9%9.3
10/21/23Georgia Southern86.8%Louisiana Monroe13.2%16.6
10/21/23East Carolina88.4%Charlotte11.6%17.9
10/21/23Wake Forest52.8%Pitt47.2%1.0
10/21/23Ball State54.8%Central Michigan45.2%1.7
10/21/23Northern Illinois55.4%Eastern Michigan44.6%1.9
10/21/23USF56.1%UConn43.9%2.2
10/21/23Wisconsin58.8%Illinois41.2%3.1
10/21/23Buffalo60.9%Kent State39.1%3.9
10/21/23Alabama61.0%Tennessee39.0%3.9
10/21/23Missouri61.1%South Carolina38.9%4.0
10/21/23West Virginia63.5%Oklahoma State36.5%4.9
10/21/23Nebraska81.5%Northwestern18.5%13.1
10/21/23Iowa82.2%Minnesota17.8%13.5
10/21/23Oregon89.9%Washington State10.1%19.3
10/21/23Tulane90.5%North Texas9.5%19.8
10/21/23Miami (OH)63.4%Toledo36.6%4.8
10/21/23Texas86.4%Houston13.6%16.3
10/21/23UTSA56.7%Florida Atlantic43.3%2.4
10/21/23Hawaii58.4%New Mexico41.6%3.0
10/21/23North Carolina92.2%Virginia7.8%21.8
10/21/23Appalachian State55.2%Old Dominion44.8%1.9
10/21/23San Jose State55.9%Utah State44.1%2.1
10/21/23Mississippi63.7%Auburn36.3%5.0
10/21/23Texas Tech66.8%BYU33.2%6.2
10/21/23Kansas State68.6%TCU31.4%6.9
10/21/23Coastal Carolina77.8%Arkansas State22.2%11.0
10/21/23UNLV81.7%Colorado State18.3%13.2
10/21/23Florida State82.0%Duke18.0%13.4
10/21/23Michigan92.2%Michigan State7.8%21.8
10/21/23LSU94.4%Army5.6%24.9
10/21/23Georgia State53.4%Louisiana46.6%1.2
10/21/23Utah57.0%USC43.0%2.5
10/21/23Clemson71.4%Miami (FL)28.6%8.1
10/21/23San Diego State82.2%Nevada17.8%13.5
10/21/23UCLA87.1%Stanford12.9%16.8
10/21/23Washington97.5%Arizona State2.5%32.1
10/19/23North Carolina Central82.5%Morgan State17.5%13.7
10/19/23Southeastern Louisiana85.5%Northwestern State14.5%15.6
10/21/23LIU50.5%Merrimack49.5%0.2
10/21/23Central Connecticut State58.1%Wagner41.9%2.9
10/21/23South Carolina State60.5%Delaware State39.5%3.7
10/21/23Yale75.5%Penn24.5%9.9
10/21/23Howard86.6%Norfolk State13.4%16.4
10/21/23Duquesne54.3%Saint Francis (PA)45.7%1.5
10/21/23Butler56.5%Dayton43.5%2.3
10/21/23Bucknell60.2%Lehigh39.8%3.6
10/21/23Marist61.7%Presbyterian38.3%4.2
10/21/23Stonehill62.5%Sacred Heart37.5%4.5
10/21/23Brown63.4%Cornell36.6%4.8
10/21/23Harvard69.3%Princeton30.7%7.2
10/21/23St. Thomas76.3%Stetson23.7%10.3
10/21/23Richmond81.8%North Carolina A&T18.2%13.3
10/21/23Holy Cross86.5%Lafayette13.5%16.4
10/21/23South Dakota92.0%Indiana State8.0%21.5
10/21/23Davidson92.5%Valparaiso7.5%22.1
10/21/23Dartmouth62.6%Columbia37.4%4.5
10/21/23Chattanooga86.5%East Tennessee State13.5%16.4
10/21/23Samford87.1%VMI12.9%16.9
10/21/23Youngstown State70.8%Illinois State29.2%7.8
10/21/23Elon71.4%Monmouth28.6%8.1
10/21/23Delaware86.2%Hampton13.8%16.2
10/21/23Furman57.1%Western Carolina42.9%2.5
10/21/23Southeast Missouri State86.1%Tennessee Tech13.9%16.1
10/21/23Georgetown55.0%Colgate45.0%1.8
10/21/23Eastern Illinois56.9%Bryant43.1%2.4
10/21/23Alcorn State77.1%Arkansas-Pine Bluff22.9%10.7
10/21/23UT Martin86.0%Charleston Southern14.0%16.0
10/21/23South Dakota State87.0%Southern Illinois13.0%16.8
10/21/23Missouri State94.0%Murray State6.0%24.2
10/21/23Tennessee State96.6%Lincoln University (CA)3.4%29.6
10/21/23Rhode Island50.3%Albany49.7%0.1
10/21/23William & Mary82.9%Towson17.1%13.9
10/21/23New Hampshire90.4%Stony Brook9.6%19.8
10/21/23North Dakota State99.2%Western Illinois0.8%42.9
10/21/23Southern72.5%Bethune-Cookman27.5%8.5
10/21/23Campbell72.8%Maine27.2%8.7
10/21/23Portland State86.4%Idaho State13.6%16.3
10/21/23Mercer91.0%Wofford9.0%20.4
10/21/23Nicholls56.6%Texas A&M-Commerce43.4%2.3
10/21/23San Diego62.8%Drake37.2%4.6
10/21/23North Dakota64.4%Northern Iowa35.6%5.2
10/21/23Stephen F. Austin68.0%Abilene Christian32.0%6.7
10/21/23Jackson State93.5%Mississippi Valley State6.5%23.5
10/21/23Eastern Kentucky56.6%Gardner-Webb43.4%2.3
10/21/23Utah Tech54.3%North Alabama45.7%1.5
10/21/23Weber State58.9%Eastern Washington41.1%3.2
10/21/23Tarleton92.6%Morehead State7.4%22.3
10/21/23Cal Poly52.2%Northern Colorado47.8%0.8
10/21/23Austin Peay76.3%Southern Utah23.7%10.3
10/21/23Florida A&M80.9%Texas Southern19.1%12.7
10/21/23Incarnate Word97.9%McNeese2.1%34.1
10/21/23Montana State72.2%Sacramento State27.8%8.4
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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