Our Movelor Week 8 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about a third of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and 0.8 points behind the spread.
Picks are below, but first, a few observations:
We’re down to eleven FBS teams, with ten of those eleven in action this weekend. There’s one undefeated matchup—Ohio State vs. Penn State—so we’ll exit the week with a maximum of ten undefeateds, but Movelor expects 1.04 others to fall, making nine the likelier number. Here’s the Ohio State/Penn State line, plus the other eight (undefeated teams marked with *):
- Ohio State* –3.1 vs. Penn State*
- James Madison* –7.8 at Marshall
- Air Force* –12.4 at Navy
- Florida State* –13.4 vs. Duke
- Liberty* –17.4 vs. Middle Tennessee
- Michigan* –21.8 at Michigan State
- North Carolina* –21.8 vs. Virginia
- Oklahoma* –23.2 vs. UCF
- Washington* –32.1 vs. Arizona State
Our model gives eighteen teams better than a 1-in-100 chance of making the playoff. Of those eighteen, six play one another and two are idle. Movelor expects 4.90 of the eighteen to go down, meaning we should expect roughly two teams to take damaging losses from teams outside the playoff hunt. Here are the lines for those not already listed (playoff possibilities marked with an *):
- Utah* –2.5 at USC
- Alabama* –3.9 vs. Tennessee*
- Mississippi* –5.0 at Auburn
- Iowa* –13.5 vs. Minnesota
- Texas* –16.3 at Houston
- Oregon* –19.3 vs. Washington State
- LSU* –24.9 vs. Army
Other games of note, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:
- Clemson –8.1 at Miami (FL)
- West Virginia –4.9 vs. Oklahoma State
- Kansas State –6.9 vs. TCU
- Tulane –19.8 vs. North Texas
- Miami (OH) –4.8 vs. Toledo
- Montana State –8.4 at Sacramento State
- South Dakota State –16.8 at Southern Illinois
- Furman –2.5 at Western Carolina
The biggest favorite this week is North Dakota State, favored by 42.9 over Western Illinois. At the FBS level, it’s Washington over Arizona State. The closest matchup is Albany vs. Rhode Island, where URI is favored by only a tenth of a point. At the FBS level, it’s Cincinnati vs. Baylor, where the Bearcats are an even 1.0-point favorite. Here’s the full list:
Date | Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
10/17/23 | Liberty | 87.8% | Middle Tennessee | 12.2% | 17.4 |
10/17/23 | Western Kentucky | 57.8% | Jacksonville State | 42.2% | 2.8 |
10/17/23 | South Alabama | 90.7% | Southern Miss | 9.3% | 20.0 |
10/18/23 | Sam Houston | 84.4% | FIU | 15.6% | 14.9 |
10/18/23 | New Mexico State | 53.8% | UTEP | 46.2% | 1.4 |
10/19/23 | Tulsa | 70.2% | Rice | 29.8% | 7.6 |
10/19/23 | James Madison | 70.8% | Marshall | 29.2% | 7.8 |
10/20/23 | SMU | 93.8% | Temple | 6.2% | 23.9 |
10/21/23 | Cincinnati | 52.7% | Baylor | 47.3% | 1.0 |
10/21/23 | Memphis | 55.5% | UAB | 44.5% | 1.9 |
10/21/23 | Ohio State | 58.7% | Penn State | 41.3% | 3.1 |
10/21/23 | Rutgers | 64.5% | Indiana | 35.5% | 5.3 |
10/21/23 | Georgia Tech | 67.2% | Boston College | 32.8% | 6.3 |
10/21/23 | Arkansas | 75.2% | Mississippi State | 24.8% | 9.8 |
10/21/23 | Air Force | 80.3% | Navy | 19.7% | 12.4 |
10/21/23 | Ohio | 81.1% | Western Michigan | 18.9% | 12.8 |
10/21/23 | Oklahoma | 93.3% | UCF | 6.7% | 23.2 |
10/21/23 | Bowling Green State | 74.1% | Akron | 25.9% | 9.3 |
10/21/23 | Georgia Southern | 86.8% | Louisiana Monroe | 13.2% | 16.6 |
10/21/23 | East Carolina | 88.4% | Charlotte | 11.6% | 17.9 |
10/21/23 | Wake Forest | 52.8% | Pitt | 47.2% | 1.0 |
10/21/23 | Ball State | 54.8% | Central Michigan | 45.2% | 1.7 |
10/21/23 | Northern Illinois | 55.4% | Eastern Michigan | 44.6% | 1.9 |
10/21/23 | USF | 56.1% | UConn | 43.9% | 2.2 |
10/21/23 | Wisconsin | 58.8% | Illinois | 41.2% | 3.1 |
10/21/23 | Buffalo | 60.9% | Kent State | 39.1% | 3.9 |
10/21/23 | Alabama | 61.0% | Tennessee | 39.0% | 3.9 |
10/21/23 | Missouri | 61.1% | South Carolina | 38.9% | 4.0 |
10/21/23 | West Virginia | 63.5% | Oklahoma State | 36.5% | 4.9 |
10/21/23 | Nebraska | 81.5% | Northwestern | 18.5% | 13.1 |
10/21/23 | Iowa | 82.2% | Minnesota | 17.8% | 13.5 |
10/21/23 | Oregon | 89.9% | Washington State | 10.1% | 19.3 |
10/21/23 | Tulane | 90.5% | North Texas | 9.5% | 19.8 |
10/21/23 | Miami (OH) | 63.4% | Toledo | 36.6% | 4.8 |
10/21/23 | Texas | 86.4% | Houston | 13.6% | 16.3 |
10/21/23 | UTSA | 56.7% | Florida Atlantic | 43.3% | 2.4 |
10/21/23 | Hawaii | 58.4% | New Mexico | 41.6% | 3.0 |
10/21/23 | North Carolina | 92.2% | Virginia | 7.8% | 21.8 |
10/21/23 | Appalachian State | 55.2% | Old Dominion | 44.8% | 1.9 |
10/21/23 | San Jose State | 55.9% | Utah State | 44.1% | 2.1 |
10/21/23 | Mississippi | 63.7% | Auburn | 36.3% | 5.0 |
10/21/23 | Texas Tech | 66.8% | BYU | 33.2% | 6.2 |
10/21/23 | Kansas State | 68.6% | TCU | 31.4% | 6.9 |
10/21/23 | Coastal Carolina | 77.8% | Arkansas State | 22.2% | 11.0 |
10/21/23 | UNLV | 81.7% | Colorado State | 18.3% | 13.2 |
10/21/23 | Florida State | 82.0% | Duke | 18.0% | 13.4 |
10/21/23 | Michigan | 92.2% | Michigan State | 7.8% | 21.8 |
10/21/23 | LSU | 94.4% | Army | 5.6% | 24.9 |
10/21/23 | Georgia State | 53.4% | Louisiana | 46.6% | 1.2 |
10/21/23 | Utah | 57.0% | USC | 43.0% | 2.5 |
10/21/23 | Clemson | 71.4% | Miami (FL) | 28.6% | 8.1 |
10/21/23 | San Diego State | 82.2% | Nevada | 17.8% | 13.5 |
10/21/23 | UCLA | 87.1% | Stanford | 12.9% | 16.8 |
10/21/23 | Washington | 97.5% | Arizona State | 2.5% | 32.1 |
10/19/23 | North Carolina Central | 82.5% | Morgan State | 17.5% | 13.7 |
10/19/23 | Southeastern Louisiana | 85.5% | Northwestern State | 14.5% | 15.6 |
10/21/23 | LIU | 50.5% | Merrimack | 49.5% | 0.2 |
10/21/23 | Central Connecticut State | 58.1% | Wagner | 41.9% | 2.9 |
10/21/23 | South Carolina State | 60.5% | Delaware State | 39.5% | 3.7 |
10/21/23 | Yale | 75.5% | Penn | 24.5% | 9.9 |
10/21/23 | Howard | 86.6% | Norfolk State | 13.4% | 16.4 |
10/21/23 | Duquesne | 54.3% | Saint Francis (PA) | 45.7% | 1.5 |
10/21/23 | Butler | 56.5% | Dayton | 43.5% | 2.3 |
10/21/23 | Bucknell | 60.2% | Lehigh | 39.8% | 3.6 |
10/21/23 | Marist | 61.7% | Presbyterian | 38.3% | 4.2 |
10/21/23 | Stonehill | 62.5% | Sacred Heart | 37.5% | 4.5 |
10/21/23 | Brown | 63.4% | Cornell | 36.6% | 4.8 |
10/21/23 | Harvard | 69.3% | Princeton | 30.7% | 7.2 |
10/21/23 | St. Thomas | 76.3% | Stetson | 23.7% | 10.3 |
10/21/23 | Richmond | 81.8% | North Carolina A&T | 18.2% | 13.3 |
10/21/23 | Holy Cross | 86.5% | Lafayette | 13.5% | 16.4 |
10/21/23 | South Dakota | 92.0% | Indiana State | 8.0% | 21.5 |
10/21/23 | Davidson | 92.5% | Valparaiso | 7.5% | 22.1 |
10/21/23 | Dartmouth | 62.6% | Columbia | 37.4% | 4.5 |
10/21/23 | Chattanooga | 86.5% | East Tennessee State | 13.5% | 16.4 |
10/21/23 | Samford | 87.1% | VMI | 12.9% | 16.9 |
10/21/23 | Youngstown State | 70.8% | Illinois State | 29.2% | 7.8 |
10/21/23 | Elon | 71.4% | Monmouth | 28.6% | 8.1 |
10/21/23 | Delaware | 86.2% | Hampton | 13.8% | 16.2 |
10/21/23 | Furman | 57.1% | Western Carolina | 42.9% | 2.5 |
10/21/23 | Southeast Missouri State | 86.1% | Tennessee Tech | 13.9% | 16.1 |
10/21/23 | Georgetown | 55.0% | Colgate | 45.0% | 1.8 |
10/21/23 | Eastern Illinois | 56.9% | Bryant | 43.1% | 2.4 |
10/21/23 | Alcorn State | 77.1% | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 22.9% | 10.7 |
10/21/23 | UT Martin | 86.0% | Charleston Southern | 14.0% | 16.0 |
10/21/23 | South Dakota State | 87.0% | Southern Illinois | 13.0% | 16.8 |
10/21/23 | Missouri State | 94.0% | Murray State | 6.0% | 24.2 |
10/21/23 | Tennessee State | 96.6% | Lincoln University (CA) | 3.4% | 29.6 |
10/21/23 | Rhode Island | 50.3% | Albany | 49.7% | 0.1 |
10/21/23 | William & Mary | 82.9% | Towson | 17.1% | 13.9 |
10/21/23 | New Hampshire | 90.4% | Stony Brook | 9.6% | 19.8 |
10/21/23 | North Dakota State | 99.2% | Western Illinois | 0.8% | 42.9 |
10/21/23 | Southern | 72.5% | Bethune-Cookman | 27.5% | 8.5 |
10/21/23 | Campbell | 72.8% | Maine | 27.2% | 8.7 |
10/21/23 | Portland State | 86.4% | Idaho State | 13.6% | 16.3 |
10/21/23 | Mercer | 91.0% | Wofford | 9.0% | 20.4 |
10/21/23 | Nicholls | 56.6% | Texas A&M-Commerce | 43.4% | 2.3 |
10/21/23 | San Diego | 62.8% | Drake | 37.2% | 4.6 |
10/21/23 | North Dakota | 64.4% | Northern Iowa | 35.6% | 5.2 |
10/21/23 | Stephen F. Austin | 68.0% | Abilene Christian | 32.0% | 6.7 |
10/21/23 | Jackson State | 93.5% | Mississippi Valley State | 6.5% | 23.5 |
10/21/23 | Eastern Kentucky | 56.6% | Gardner-Webb | 43.4% | 2.3 |
10/21/23 | Utah Tech | 54.3% | North Alabama | 45.7% | 1.5 |
10/21/23 | Weber State | 58.9% | Eastern Washington | 41.1% | 3.2 |
10/21/23 | Tarleton | 92.6% | Morehead State | 7.4% | 22.3 |
10/21/23 | Cal Poly | 52.2% | Northern Colorado | 47.8% | 0.8 |
10/21/23 | Austin Peay | 76.3% | Southern Utah | 23.7% | 10.3 |
10/21/23 | Florida A&M | 80.9% | Texas Southern | 19.1% | 12.7 |
10/21/23 | Incarnate Word | 97.9% | McNeese | 2.1% | 34.1 |
10/21/23 | Montana State | 72.2% | Sacramento State | 27.8% | 8.4 |