The Barking Crow

Joe Stunardi

Movelor Picks: Week 7, 2023

Joe Stunardi

Our Movelor Week 7 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running a little less than half a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

We’re down to 14 undefeated FBS teams, with 13 of the 14 in action this weekend. There’s one undefeated matchup—Washington vs. Oregon—so we’ll be down to 13 undefeated teams at most, but Movelor expects an average of 2.25 losses from the other twelve, meaning we’re projecting to end Week 7 with roughly eleven undefeateds. Here are Movelor’s lines for those most at risk (undefeated teams are marked with an asterisk):

  • USC* +6.9 at Notre Dame
  • Washington* –0.7 vs. Oregon*
  • Liberty* –0.8 at Jacksonville State
  • James Madison* –7.8 vs. Georgia Southern

Our model currently has eight teams in the heart of playoff contention, four standing in the doorway, and seven around the fringes. From those first eight, we’ll get at least one loss (Oregon or Washington), but Movelor puts the probability of at least one of the others losing at only 25%. So, if someone big goes down this week, it’ll be quite the upset. Here are the lines for the five of those eight in action not named the Huskies or the Ducks:

  • Florida State –16.1 vs. Syracuse
  • Ohio State –19.4 at Purdue
  • Michigan –34.4 vs. Indiana
  • Georgia –36.5 at Vanderbilt
  • Penn State –60.0 vs. UMass

Among the next four, three are in action, with Movelor putting the probability of at least one upset around 40%. Here are those three:

  • Louisville –10.4 at Pitt
  • North Carolina –15.5 vs. Miami
  • Alabama –20.8 vs. Arkansas

Out of the next seven, the ones on the fringes, two are going head to head in the form of UCLA and Oregon State. USC is in this group and is listed above. Between those and the other three in action, Movelor expects roughly 2.2 losses, meaning it would be surprising if someone doesn’t go down beyond the Bruins and the Beavers. The relevant lines:

  • Oregon State –6.6 vs. UCLA
  • Duke –10.3 vs. NC State
  • Tennessee –13.1 vs. Texas A&M
  • Utah –18.0 vs. Cal

Other big games, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:

  • Wisconsin –2.2 vs. Iowa
  • Kentucky –6.5 vs. Missouri
  • LSU –10.0 vs. Auburn
  • West Virginia –9.8 at Houston
  • Oklahoma State –2.3 vs. Kansas
  • Texas Tech –0.9 vs. Kansas State
  • Washington State –6.6 vs. Arizona
  • Air Force –15.7 vs. Wyoming
  • Fresno State –11.6 at Utah State
  • Tulane –2.2 at Memphis
  • Appalachian State –6.7 vs. Coastal Carolina
  • Georgia State –3.5 vs. Marshall
  • South Dakota State –22.2 vs. Northern Iowa
  • North Dakota State –7.1 at North Dakota
  • Youngstown State –0.9 at South Dakota
  • Montana State –41.2 vs. Cal Poly
  • Idaho –7.6 vs. Montana
  • Sacramento State –24.6 at Northern Colorado
  • Weber State –3.3 vs. UC Davis
  • Furman –2.7 at Samford
  • Mercer –4.4 vs. Chattanooga
  • Central Arkansas –8.3 vs. Stephen F. Austin
  • Incarnate Word –35.0 vs. Texas A&M-Commerce
  • Butler –0.7 vs. Davidson

The biggest favorite this week is Penn State, favored by 60.0 on the dot against visiting UMass. The closest game on paper is ECU vs. SMU, where Movelor has the Pirates favored by 0.016 points. Here’s the full list:

DateFavoriteFavorite Win ProbabilityUnderdogUnderdog Win ProbabilityPredicted Margin
10/10/23Louisiana Tech50.7%Middle Tennessee49.3%0.2
10/10/23Jacksonville State52.2%Liberty47.8%0.8
10/10/23Appalachian State68.2%Coastal Carolina31.8%6.7
10/11/23UTEP66.1%FIU33.9%5.9
10/11/23New Mexico State60.7%Sam Houston39.3%3.8
10/12/23West Virginia75.3%Houston24.7%9.8
10/12/23East Carolina50.0%SMU50.0%0.0
10/13/23Tulane56.2%Memphis43.8%2.2
10/13/23Fresno State78.8%Utah State21.2%11.6
10/13/23Colorado65.8%Stanford34.2%5.8
10/14/23Ohio State90.0%Purdue10.0%19.4
10/14/23Georgia98.4%Vanderbilt1.6%36.5
10/14/23Michigan98.0%Indiana2.0%34.4
10/14/23Florida State86.1%Syracuse13.9%16.1
10/14/23Iowa State51.5%Cincinnati48.5%0.5
10/14/23James Madison70.8%Georgia Southern29.2%7.8
10/14/23North Texas83.0%Temple17.0%14.0
10/14/23Eastern Michigan80.6%Kent State19.4%12.6
10/14/23Alabama91.4%Arkansas8.6%20.8
10/14/23Michigan State55.8%Rutgers44.2%2.1
10/14/23Toledo73.1%Ball State26.9%8.8
10/14/23Navy68.3%Charlotte31.7%6.8
10/14/23Utah88.6%California11.4%18.0
10/14/23Oklahoma State56.6%Kansas43.4%2.3
10/14/23Maryland82.7%Illinois17.3%13.8
10/14/23USF63.4%Florida Atlantic36.6%4.8
10/14/23Washington51.9%Oregon48.1%0.7
10/14/23Tennessee81.5%Texas A&M18.5%13.1
10/14/23Wake Forest55.2%Virginia Tech44.8%1.8
10/14/23TCU76.4%BYU23.6%10.3
10/14/23South Carolina64.3%Florida35.7%5.2
10/14/23Buffalo75.2%Bowling Green State24.8%9.8
10/14/23Central Michigan81.0%Akron19.0%12.8
10/14/23Troy54.1%Army45.9%1.4
10/14/23Miami (OH)55.5%Western Michigan44.5%1.9
10/14/23Penn State99.9%UMass0.1%60.0
10/14/23Wisconsin56.3%Iowa43.7%2.2
10/14/23Ohio76.1%Northern Illinois23.9%10.2
10/14/23UNLV74.3%Nevada25.7%9.4
10/14/23San Jose State77.7%New Mexico22.3%11.0
10/14/23Louisville76.4%Pitt23.6%10.4
10/14/23Georgia State59.8%Marshall40.2%3.5
10/14/23Texas Tech52.4%Kansas State47.6%0.9
10/14/23LSU75.8%Auburn24.2%10.0
10/14/23Washington State67.9%Arizona32.1%6.6
10/14/23Air Force85.6%Wyoming14.4%15.7
10/14/23Texas State85.0%Louisiana Monroe15.0%15.3
10/14/23North Carolina85.3%Miami (FL)14.7%15.5
10/14/23Kentucky67.6%Missouri32.4%6.5
10/14/23Notre Dame68.6%USC31.4%6.9
10/14/23Oregon State68.0%UCLA32.0%6.6
10/14/23Duke76.3%NC State23.7%10.3
10/14/23UTSA57.2%UAB42.8%2.6
10/14/23Boise State79.3%Colorado State20.7%11.8
10/14/23San Diego State69.4%Hawaii30.6%7.2
10/12/23Saint Francis (PA)88.7%Wagner11.3%18.1
10/14/23Duquesne74.6%Central Connecticut State25.4%9.5
10/14/23San Diego65.8%Marist34.2%5.8
10/14/23Yale96.8%Sacred Heart3.2%30.0
10/14/23Princeton53.8%Brown46.2%1.4
10/14/23Lehigh62.9%Georgetown37.1%4.7
10/14/23Furman57.5%Samford42.5%2.7
10/14/23Dartmouth80.0%Colgate20.0%12.2
10/14/23The Citadel53.0%VMI47.0%1.0
10/14/23New Hampshire62.3%Albany37.7%4.4
10/14/23Elon52.4%Villanova47.6%0.8
10/14/23Butler52.1%Davidson47.9%0.7
10/14/23Rhode Island67.1%Richmond32.9%6.3
10/14/23Cornell80.9%Bucknell19.1%12.7
10/14/23Maine80.0%LIU20.0%12.2
10/14/23Dayton89.9%Presbyterian10.1%19.3
10/14/23St. Thomas79.9%Drake20.1%12.1
10/14/23Monmouth71.9%Hampton28.1%8.3
10/14/23Harvard72.2%Howard27.8%8.4
10/14/23South Carolina State65.8%Tennessee Tech34.2%5.8
10/14/23Columbia59.0%Penn41.0%3.2
10/14/23Youngstown State52.5%South Dakota47.5%0.9
10/14/23Morehead State54.9%Valparaiso45.1%1.8
10/14/23North Dakota State69.2%North Dakota30.8%7.1
10/14/23Austin Peay90.6%Gardner-Webb9.4%20.0
10/14/23Sacramento State94.2%Northern Colorado5.8%24.6
10/14/23Eastern Kentucky67.5%Tarleton32.5%6.5
10/14/23Bethune-Cookman67.9%Texas Southern32.1%6.6
10/14/23Arkansas-Pine Bluff61.8%Mississippi Valley State38.2%4.2
10/14/23Grambling State61.3%Alabama A&M38.7%4.1
10/14/23South Dakota State92.6%Northern Iowa7.4%22.2
10/14/23Delaware94.2%North Carolina A&T5.8%24.6
10/14/23Southern Illinois94.4%Murray State5.6%25.0
10/14/23Southeast Missouri State90.9%Eastern Illinois9.1%20.3
10/14/23Illinois State90.1%Indiana State9.9%19.5
10/14/23Jackson State90.9%Alabama State9.1%20.3
10/14/23East Tennessee State64.3%Wofford35.7%5.2
10/14/23Fordham72.1%Stony Brook27.9%8.4
10/14/23Nicholls90.0%Northwestern State10.0%19.4
10/14/23Northern Arizona62.4%Portland State37.6%4.5
10/14/23Bryant79.1%Robert Morris20.9%11.7
10/14/23Missouri State88.9%Western Illinois11.1%18.4
10/14/23Southeastern Louisiana88.4%Lamar11.6%17.9
10/14/23Charleston Southern58.3%Lindenwood41.7%3.0
10/14/23Abilene Christian82.6%North Alabama17.4%13.7
10/14/23Mercer62.1%Chattanooga37.9%4.4
10/14/23Incarnate Word98.1%Texas A&M-Commerce1.9%35.0
10/14/23Southern95.5%Lincoln University (CA)4.5%27.0
10/14/23Central Arkansas72.0%Stephen F. Austin28.0%8.3
10/14/23Tennessee State86.9%Norfolk State13.1%16.7
10/14/23Eastern Washington80.7%Idaho State19.3%12.6
10/14/23Prairie View A&M61.5%Houston Christian38.5%4.1
10/14/23Weber State59.1%UC Davis40.9%3.3
10/14/23Montana State99.1%Cal Poly0.9%41.2
10/14/23Idaho70.3%Montana29.7%7.6
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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