The Barking Crow

Joe Stunardi

Movelor Picks: Week 5, 2023

Joe Stunardi

Our Movelor Week 5 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about 0.5 points behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

We’re down to 28 undefeated FBS teams, with 21 of those in action this weekend. Only two of them—Kansas and Texas—play one another, so we could theoretically exit with as many as 27 teams still unbeaten. Movelor expects 4.25 undefeated teams to lose in the other 19 games, meaning the most likely number of undefeated teams at the end of Week 5 is 23. Here are the undefeated underdogs, plus those Movelor favors by fewer than 8.5 points:

  • Kansas +17.0 @ Texas
  • Duke +5.5 vs. Notre Dame
  • Utah +1.4 @ Oregon State
  • Syracuse –0.8 vs. Clemson
  • Kentucky –4.5 vs. Florida
  • Georgia State –4.6 vs. Troy

In parallel terrain, our model has 22 teams with better than a 1-in-40 chance right now of making the College Football Playoff. Of those, 17 play this weekend, but there are two games between contenders—Notre Dame @ Duke; Utah @ Oregon State. Movelor expects roughly 2.3 of the other 13 contenders to lose. This doesn’t mean we should expect to exit the weekend with 18 contenders—that 1-in-40 threshold is convenient but arbitrary, and teams can pass it in both directions—but if you’re looking to put a number on chaos, the number is probably four. We should expect four teams with at least borderline playoff hopes to take an extinguishing or dampening loss. Duke, Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon State, and Syracuse are all in this category, with just one other team clearly at significant risk:

  • LSU +1.4 @ Mississippi

Big game lines we haven’t shared yet, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:

  • Louisville –9.2 vs. NC State
  • USC –25.5 @ Colorado
  • Penn State –32.2 @ Northwestern
  • Georgia –16.0 @ Auburn
  • Michigan –15.7 @ Nebraska
  • Missouri –12.0 vs. Vanderbilt
  • Oregon –26.8 vs. Stanford
  • Oklahoma –16.9 vs. Iowa State
  • Tennessee –15.6 vs. South Carolina
  • Alabama –16.4 @ Mississippi State
  • Washington –17.9 @ Arizona
  • James Madison –9.4 vs. South Alabama
  • Memphis –2.5 vs. Boise State
  • Air Force –16.7 vs. San Diego State
  • Fresno State –34.7 vs. Nevada
  • North Dakota State –21.0 vs. South Dakota
  • Elon –0.7 vs. William & Mary
  • Northern Iowa –4.5 vs. Youngstown State
  • South Dakota State –23.2 vs. North Dakota
  • Montana State –28.8 vs. Portland State
  • Idaho –5.9 @ Eastern Washington
  • Holy Cross –12.9 vs. Harvard
  • Southern Illinois –8.9 vs. Missouri State
  • Central Arkansas –6.2 @ Southern Utah
  • Sacramento State –20.9 vs. Northern Arizona
  • Princeton –6.9 vs. Columbia
  • Penn –4.7 vs. Dartmouth

The biggest favorite of the week is Rutgers, who’s laying 49.8 points against Wagner. Between FBS teams, Fresno State is the biggest favorite.

The smallest favorite of the week is Southern Miss, who’s laying 0.3 points against Texas State. That’s a 50.7%/49.3% game for win probability.

Movelor had a great week last week, with an average absolute error margin of only 10.3 points on FBS vs. FBS games and 31 of those 63 finishing within eight points of the Movelor spread. We don’t have week-to-week results handy from previous seasons, but we do believe Movelor gets better as the year goes on, like many systems like it.

Here’s the full grid.

DateFavoriteFavorite Win ProbabilityUnderdogUnderdog Win ProbabilityPredicted Margin
9/28/23Tulsa80.4%Temple19.6%12.4
9/28/23Western Kentucky83.1%Middle Tennessee16.9%14.0
9/28/23Jacksonville State67.2%Sam Houston32.8%6.3
9/29/23Louisville73.9%NC State26.1%9.2
9/29/23Princeton68.5%Columbia31.5%6.9
9/29/23Oregon State53.9%Utah46.1%1.4
9/29/23UTEP60.4%Louisiana Tech39.6%3.7
9/29/23BYU51.4%Cincinnati48.6%0.5
9/30/23Penn State97.5%Northwestern2.5%32.2
9/30/23USC94.7%Colorado5.3%25.5
9/30/23Utah State76.1%UConn23.9%10.2
9/30/23Buffalo61.1%Akron38.9%4.0
9/30/23Texas A&M56.2%Arkansas43.8%2.2
9/30/23Syracuse52.4%Clemson47.6%0.8
9/30/23Kentucky62.6%Florida37.4%4.5
9/30/23James Madison74.3%South Alabama25.7%9.4
9/30/23Minnesota83.1%Louisiana16.9%14.1
9/30/23Tulane88.0%UAB12.0%17.5
9/30/23Howard69.5%Robert Morris30.5%7.3
9/30/23Stetson61.8%Marist38.2%4.2
9/30/23LIU54.9%Duquesne45.1%1.7
9/30/23Davidson62.7%San Diego37.3%4.6
9/30/23Brown73.4%Central Connecticut State26.6%9.0
9/30/23Yale86.4%Morgan State13.6%16.3
9/30/23Saint Francis (PA)74.0%Stonehill26.0%9.2
9/30/23Merrimack62.8%Sacred Heart37.2%4.6
9/30/23Dayton57.7%St. Thomas42.3%2.8
9/30/23Penn63.1%Dartmouth36.9%4.7
9/30/23Monmouth80.3%Lehigh19.7%12.4
9/30/23Delaware State83.3%Virginia Lynchburg16.7%14.1
9/30/23Rhode Island86.1%Bryant13.9%16.1
9/30/23Samford87.4%East Tennessee State12.6%17.1
9/30/23Butler96.4%Presbyterian3.6%28.9
9/30/23Central Michigan67.3%Eastern Michigan32.7%6.4
9/30/23Virginia55.4%Boston College44.6%1.9
9/30/23Fordham92.8%Georgetown7.2%22.6
9/30/23Austin Peay90.4%Lindenwood9.6%19.8
9/30/23Western Carolina90.4%The Citadel9.6%19.7
9/30/23North Carolina A&T71.5%Norfolk State28.5%8.1
9/30/23Elon51.9%William & Mary48.1%0.7
9/30/23Valparaiso61.5%Southwest Minnesota State38.5%4.1
9/30/23Northern Iowa62.6%Youngstown State37.4%4.5
9/30/23Morehead State62.7%Drake37.3%4.6
9/30/23Cornell85.1%Colgate14.9%15.3
9/30/23North Dakota State91.6%South Dakota8.4%21.0
9/30/23Richmond92.6%Hampton7.4%22.3
9/30/23Miami (OH)59.6%Kent State40.4%3.4
9/30/23California76.1%Arizona State23.9%10.2
9/30/23Weber State95.9%Northern Colorado4.1%27.9
9/30/23Texas Southern78.7%Lincoln University (CA)21.3%11.5
9/30/23Alabama A&M82.7%Tuskegee17.3%13.8
9/30/23New Hampshire85.2%Towson14.8%15.5
9/30/23South Dakota State93.3%North Dakota6.7%23.2
9/30/23Georgia86.0%Auburn14.0%16.0
9/30/23Michigan85.6%Nebraska14.4%15.7
9/30/23Arkansas State67.5%UMass32.5%6.5
9/30/23Illinois53.5%Purdue46.5%1.2
9/30/23Western Michigan54.0%Ball State46.0%1.4
9/30/23Navy66.9%USF33.1%6.2
9/30/23UCF69.7%Baylor30.3%7.4
9/30/23Texas Tech79.2%Houston20.8%11.8
9/30/23Marshall83.2%Old Dominion16.8%14.1
9/30/23Maryland85.6%Indiana14.4%15.7
9/30/23Georgia Tech86.8%Bowling Green State13.2%16.6
9/30/23Texas87.3%Kansas12.7%17.0
9/30/23Toledo91.0%Northern Illinois9.0%20.4
9/30/23Rutgers99.6%Wagner0.4%49.8
9/30/23Villanova52.4%Albany47.6%0.9
9/30/23Maine68.5%Stony Brook31.5%6.9
9/30/23Lafayette83.5%Bucknell16.5%14.3
9/30/23Missouri79.5%Vanderbilt20.5%12.0
9/30/23Memphis57.2%Boise State42.8%2.5
9/30/23UNLV81.5%Hawaii18.5%13.1
9/30/23Wyoming94.0%New Mexico6.0%24.3
9/30/23Idaho66.0%Eastern Washington34.0%5.9
9/30/23North Carolina Central55.6%Campbell44.4%2.0
9/30/23Southeastern Louisiana72.4%Tarleton27.6%8.5
9/30/23Mercer89.3%VMI10.7%18.7
9/30/23Montana95.9%Idaho State4.1%27.8
9/30/23Montana State96.3%Portland State3.7%28.8
9/30/23Southern72.9%Arkansas-Pine Bluff27.1%8.7
9/30/23Southern Illinois73.4%Missouri State26.6%8.9
9/30/23Holy Cross81.1%Harvard18.9%12.9
9/30/23Mississippi53.9%LSU46.1%1.4
9/30/23Chattanooga84.4%Wofford15.6%14.9
9/30/23Kennesaw State68.8%Charleston Southern31.2%7.0
9/30/23Alcorn State53.2%Alabama State46.8%1.1
9/30/23Oregon95.4%Stanford4.6%26.8
9/30/23East Carolina77.8%Rice22.2%11.1
9/30/23Southern Miss50.7%Texas State49.3%0.3
9/30/23Georgia State62.8%Troy37.2%4.6
9/30/23Georgia Southern63.7%Coastal Carolina36.3%5.0
9/30/23North Texas76.0%Abilene Christian24.0%10.2
9/30/23Oklahoma87.1%Iowa State12.9%16.9
9/30/23Colorado State92.6%Utah Tech7.4%22.3
9/30/23Florida A&M94.8%Mississippi Valley State5.2%25.6
9/30/23Eastern Kentucky63.6%North Alabama36.4%4.9
9/30/23Lamar55.4%Houston Christian44.6%1.9
9/30/23Indiana State52.5%Murray State47.5%0.9
9/30/23Eastern Illinois51.9%Northwestern State48.1%0.7
9/30/23Prairie View A&M58.1%Grambling State41.9%2.9
9/30/23UT Martin91.3%Tennessee State8.7%20.7
9/30/23Stephen F. Austin91.7%Texas A&M-Commerce8.3%21.2
9/30/23Notre Dame65.2%Duke34.8%5.5
9/30/23Iowa79.7%Michigan State20.3%12.0
9/30/23Tennessee85.5%South Carolina14.5%15.6
9/30/23SMU94.2%Charlotte5.8%24.6
9/30/23Appalachian State84.3%Louisiana Monroe15.7%14.8
9/30/23Pitt63.6%Virginia Tech36.4%4.9
9/30/23TCU76.2%West Virginia23.8%10.2
9/30/23Air Force87.0%San Diego State13.0%16.7
9/30/23UC Davis94.7%Cal Poly5.3%25.4
9/30/23Central Arkansas66.9%Southern Utah33.1%6.2
9/30/23Nicholls57.0%McNeese43.0%2.5
9/30/23Alabama86.6%Mississippi State13.4%16.4
9/30/23Sacramento State91.5%Northern Arizona8.5%20.9
9/30/23Washington88.4%Arizona11.6%17.9
9/30/23Fresno State98.1%Nevada1.9%34.7
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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