Our Movelor Week 2 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread.
Picks are below, but here are a few observations:
- In the week’s big games, there’s not much of a trend dictating where Movelor agrees or disagrees with betting markets. It likes Alabama (vs. Texas) eleven points more than the current spread. It likes Texas A&M (at Miami) two points more than the current spread. It likes Notre Dame (at NC State) four points more than the current spread. It likes Utah (at Baylor) two points more than the current spread. But it also likes a lot of underdogs. It has both Nebraska (at Colorado) and Tulane (vs. Mississippi) winning outright. It prefers Texas Tech (vs. Oregon) by four points against the spread. It has Wisconsin’s game at Washington State marked a tossup. It likes Iowa State (vs. Iowa) by one point against the spread.
- Our model currently has 17 teams enjoying better than 1-in-30 odds to make the College Football Playoff. Of those 17, it expects 2.4 to lose, with Texas the likeliest (89.0%) followed by Oregon (44.1%), Utah (24.1%), and Notre Dame (22.6%). Others at risk include Oklahoma (vs. SMU, 12.7%), Alabama (11.0%), Kansas State (vs. Troy, 9.9%), and Oregon State (vs. UC Davis, 9.0%).
- The FCS has collectively yet to beat an FBS team this year. Movelor expects 3.8 of those upsets this week, with Idaho (at Nevada) and Southern Illinois (at Northern Illinois) outright favorites and all three of Holy Cross (at Boston College), Albany (at Hawaii), and New Hampshire (at Central Michigan) expected to keep their games within a score. Notably, the FCS is only 13–3 against non-Division I schools so far this year. Movelor projects an 11–3 record this week.
- In the big FCS games, Movelor likes top-ranked South Dakota State to beat Montana State (73.9%, 9.2 points) in one of the toughest games of the year for the Jacks, Weber State to beat Northern Iowa (58.8%, 3.1 points) in a key Big Sky–MVFC showdown, and NC Central to beat NC A&T (50.4%, 0.4 points) in what’s informally North Carolina’s HBCU state championship.
- The biggest projected blowout of the weekend is LSU vs. Grambling, where Movelor has the Tigers bouncing back to win by 61 points.
| Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
| Louisville | 99.7% | Murray State | 0.3% | 51.8 |
| Indiana | 96.8% | Indiana State | 3.2% | 30.2 |
| Illinois | 63.0% | Kansas | 37.0% | 4.7 |
| Rhode Island | 93.7% | Stony Brook | 6.3% | 23.8 |
| Kansas State | 90.1% | Troy | 9.9% | 19.4 |
| Nebraska | 90.9% | Colorado | 9.1% | 20.2 |
| Penn State | 99.4% | Delaware | 0.6% | 44.6 |
| Army | 99.5% | Delaware State | 0.5% | 46.9 |
| Boston College | 58.5% | Holy Cross | 41.5% | 3.0 |
| James Madison | 70.1% | Virginia | 29.9% | 7.5 |
| Utah | 75.9% | Baylor | 24.1% | 10.1 |
| Georgia | 99.4% | Ball State | 0.6% | 45.7 |
| Ohio State | 99.0% | Youngstown State | 1.0% | 40.9 |
| Purdue | 63.7% | Virginia Tech | 36.3% | 4.9 |
| Notre Dame | 77.4% | NC State | 22.6% | 10.9 |
| Georgia Tech | 99.0% | South Carolina State | 1.0% | 40.1 |
| Central Michigan | 72.0% | New Hampshire | 28.0% | 8.3 |
| Bowling Green State | 92.4% | Eastern Illinois | 7.6% | 22.1 |
| Clemson | 99.7% | Charleston Southern | 0.3% | 51.3 |
| BYU | 96.1% | Southern Utah | 3.9% | 28.2 |
| Kentucky | 98.8% | Eastern Kentucky | 1.2% | 38.6 |
| Southern Illinois | 51.6% | Northern Illinois | 48.4% | 0.6 |
| Syracuse | 85.2% | Western Michigan | 14.8% | 15.4 |
| Michigan State | 93.1% | Richmond | 6.9% | 22.9 |
| Tulane | 60.9% | Mississippi | 39.1% | 3.9 |
| Miami (OH) | 84.2% | UMass | 15.8% | 14.8 |
| UTSA | 90.6% | Texas State | 9.4% | 19.9 |
| Toledo | 98.9% | Texas Southern | 1.1% | 39.6 |
| Northwestern | 61.8% | UTEP | 38.2% | 4.2 |
| Texas A&M | 67.2% | Miami (FL) | 32.8% | 6.3 |
| Iowa | 58.5% | Iowa State | 41.5% | 3.0 |
| Michigan | 99.0% | UNLV | 1.0% | 40.9 |
| Navy | 99.8% | Wagner | 0.2% | 54.5 |
| Wyoming | 96.3% | Portland State | 3.7% | 28.9 |
| San Jose State | 94.2% | Cal Poly | 5.8% | 24.5 |
| Arkansas | 95.5% | Kent State | 4.5% | 27.0 |
| East Carolina | 74.0% | Marshall | 26.0% | 9.2 |
| South Alabama | 82.2% | Southeastern Louisiana | 17.8% | 13.5 |
| Washington | 95.6% | Tulsa | 4.4% | 27.2 |
| Tennessee | 99.3% | Austin Peay | 0.7% | 44.0 |
| North Carolina | 82.0% | Appalachian State | 18.0% | 13.4 |
| Liberty | 77.1% | New Mexico State | 22.9% | 10.7 |
| UAB | 51.2% | Georgia Southern | 48.8% | 0.4 |
| West Virginia | 98.9% | Duquesne | 1.1% | 39.7 |
| Florida Atlantic | 51.2% | Ohio | 48.8% | 0.4 |
| Oklahoma | 87.3% | SMU | 12.7% | 17.0 |
| Duke | 99.5% | Lafayette | 0.5% | 47.2 |
| Louisiana | 69.4% | Old Dominion | 30.6% | 7.2 |
| Buffalo | 90.3% | Fordham | 9.7% | 19.6 |
| Akron | 90.5% | Morgan State | 9.5% | 19.9 |
| North Texas | 87.2% | FIU | 12.8% | 16.9 |
| Pitt | 64.4% | Cincinnati | 35.6% | 5.2 |
| Missouri | 87.0% | Middle Tennessee | 13.0% | 16.8 |
| Western Kentucky | 99.7% | Houston Christian | 0.3% | 50.8 |
| Idaho | 62.1% | Nevada | 37.9% | 4.4 |
| Coastal Carolina | 60.9% | Jacksonville State | 39.1% | 3.9 |
| Oregon | 55.9% | Texas Tech | 44.1% | 2.1 |
| Boise State | 54.5% | UCF | 45.5% | 1.6 |
| Louisiana Tech | 87.2% | Northwestern State | 12.8% | 16.9 |
| Houston | 85.2% | Rice | 14.8% | 15.4 |
| Alabama | 89.0% | Texas | 11.0% | 18.4 |
| USF | 79.7% | Florida A&M | 20.3% | 12.1 |
| Memphis | 91.0% | Arkansas State | 9.0% | 20.4 |
| Georgia State | 79.9% | UConn | 20.1% | 12.2 |
| LSU | 99.9% | Grambling State | 0.1% | 60.6 |
| Minnesota | 94.0% | Eastern Michigan | 6.0% | 24.2 |
| South Carolina | 81.9% | Furman | 18.1% | 13.3 |
| UCLA | 73.6% | San Diego State | 26.4% | 9.0 |
| Rutgers | 79.6% | Temple | 20.4% | 12.0 |
| Florida | 99.5% | McNeese | 0.5% | 47.0 |
| Mississippi State | 82.5% | Arizona | 17.5% | 13.6 |
| Maryland | 97.8% | Charlotte | 2.2% | 33.4 |
| Wisconsin | 50.8% | Washington State | 49.2% | 0.3 |
| New Mexico | 76.4% | Tennessee Tech | 23.6% | 10.4 |
| Air Force | 93.5% | Sam Houston | 6.5% | 23.5 |
| Louisiana Monroe | 97.0% | Lamar | 3.0% | 30.7 |
| TCU | 99.7% | Nicholls | 0.3% | 52.2 |
| Utah State | 97.0% | Idaho State | 3.0% | 30.5 |
| Florida State | 96.5% | Southern Miss | 3.5% | 29.2 |
| Fresno State | 98.6% | Eastern Washington | 1.4% | 37.6 |
| Oregon State | 91.0% | UC Davis | 9.0% | 20.4 |
| USC | 94.8% | Stanford | 5.2% | 25.5 |
| Auburn | 60.8% | California | 39.2% | 3.9 |
| Oklahoma State | 70.5% | Arizona State | 29.5% | 7.7 |
| Wake Forest | 87.7% | Vanderbilt | 12.3% | 17.3 |
| Hawaii | 68.6% | Albany | 31.4% | 6.9 |
| Central Connecticut State | 75.9% | Stonehill | 24.1% | 10.1 |
| Sacred Heart | 51.6% | Georgetown | 48.4% | 0.6 |
| Virginia Lynchburg | 76.0% | Presbyterian | 24.0% | 10.2 |
| Dayton | 87.0% | Central State | 13.0% | 16.7 |
| Butler | 88.0% | Taylor | 12.0% | 17.5 |
| South Dakota | 76.9% | St. Thomas | 23.1% | 10.6 |
| Samford | 81.6% | Western Carolina | 18.4% | 13.1 |
| Campbell | 58.9% | The Citadel | 41.1% | 3.2 |
| North Dakota State | 96.5% | Maine | 3.5% | 29.2 |
| Merrimack | 77.2% | Lehigh | 22.8% | 10.8 |
| Bethune-Cookman | 76.9% | Savannah State | 23.1% | 10.6 |
| San Diego | 85.9% | Colorado Mesa | 14.1% | 15.9 |
| Incarnate Word | 97.5% | Northern Colorado | 2.5% | 32.2 |
| North Dakota | 90.1% | Northern Arizona | 9.9% | 19.4 |
| Illinois State | 86.0% | Western Illinois | 14.0% | 16.0 |
| Northern Iowa | 58.8% | Weber State | 41.2% | 3.1 |
| East Tennessee State | 93.6% | Carson-Newman | 6.4% | 23.7 |
| Saint Francis (PA) | 90.9% | Robert Morris | 9.1% | 20.3 |
| William & Mary | 90.4% | Wofford | 9.6% | 19.8 |
| VMI | 57.9% | Bucknell | 42.1% | 2.8 |
| Elon | 55.0% | Gardner-Webb | 45.0% | 1.8 |
| Alabama State | 83.0% | Miles | 17.0% | 14.0 |
| Towson | 68.7% | Monmouth | 31.3% | 6.9 |
| Valparaiso | 64.7% | Indiana Wesleyan | 35.3% | 5.4 |
| Chattanooga | 69.1% | Kennesaw State | 30.9% | 7.1 |
| Bryant | 79.8% | LIU | 20.2% | 12.1 |
| Villanova | 91.6% | Colgate | 8.4% | 21.1 |
| Hampton | 85.2% | Norfolk State | 14.8% | 15.5 |
| Abilene Christian | 75.3% | Prairie View A&M | 24.7% | 9.8 |
| Alabama A&M | 82.6% | Lane | 17.4% | 13.7 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 84.7% | Alcorn State | 15.3% | 15.1 |
| Tarleton | 60.0% | North Alabama | 40.0% | 3.6 |
| Howard | 94.2% | Morehouse | 5.8% | 24.6 |
| Central Arkansas | 98.4% | Texas College | 1.6% | 36.3 |
| Stetson | 69.9% | Webber International | 30.1% | 7.4 |
| Tennessee State | 72.8% | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 27.2% | 8.7 |
| Southeast Missouri State | 88.5% | Lindenwood | 11.5% | 18.0 |
| Missouri State | 57.6% | UT Martin | 42.4% | 2.7 |
| Davidson | 85.9% | Barton College | 14.1% | 16.0 |
| South Dakota State | 73.9% | Montana State | 26.1% | 9.2 |
| Drake | 76.7% | Northwestern (IA) | 23.3% | 10.5 |
| Mercer | 98.2% | Morehead State | 1.8% | 35.4 |
| North Carolina Central | 50.4% | North Carolina A&T | 49.6% | 0.1 |
| Jackson State | 80.6% | Southern | 19.4% | 12.6 |
| Montana | 91.7% | Utah Tech | 8.3% | 21.1 |
| Sacramento State | 98.8% | Texas A&M-Commerce | 1.2% | 39.2 |
