Our Movelor picks for Week 14 are live and can be found in a better-formatted table than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about one third of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly three quarters of a point behind the spread.
The full list is below, but here it is broken up by category, with notes:
In the Power Five conference championships, Movelor expects 1.3 Vegas favorites to lose, which means: We’re unlikely to see chalk this weekend. In fact, the probability of chalk—going by Movelor—is less than 1-in-5. Among Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Oregon, and Texas, it’s well likelier than not that at least one will lose. From likeliest to unlikeliest:
- Georgia +1.5 vs. Alabama
- Florida State –8.4 vs. Louisville
- Oregon –9.1 vs. Washington
- Texas –13.9 vs. Oklahoma State
- Michigan –22.0 vs. Iowa
In the Group of Five, the teams to watch are Tulane, Liberty, SMU, and possibly Troy and Toledo (depending where tonight’s rankings come out). Our model thinks SMU will jump Liberty with a win over Tulane, but it’s possible the committee would give Liberty the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six nod in that situation, given Liberty would be 13–0, SMU would be 11–2, and the committee had Liberty ranked ahead of SMU last week. The probability of Tulane and Liberty both losing—something which would open the door to at least a little hope for Troy and Toledo—is, per Movelor, about 1-in-6. Not all that likely. From the closest to the least close, the Group of Five situation:
- Boise State +0.1 at UNLV
- SMU –2.1 at Tulane
- Miami (OH) +4.5 vs. Toledo
- New Mexico State +7.7 at Liberty
- Appalachian State +8.5 at Troy
There’s one other conference championship this weekend, and that’s the SWAC’s, which earns its winner a spot in the Celebration Bowl. Florida A&M’s the heavy favorite:
- Florida A&M –13.9 vs. Prairie View A&M
And last but not least, the FCS playoffs, where home teams (seeded teams) are all favored but Movelor expects 2.5 of them to go down. From most upset potential to least:
- North Dakota State +0.6 at Montana State
- Richmond +0.7 at Albany
- Southern Illinois +3.4 at Idaho
- Youngstown State +5.2 at Villanova
- Sacramento State +6.2 at South Dakota
- Chattanooga +7.9 at Furman
- Delaware +19.0 at Montana
- Mercer +28.2 at South Dakota State
South Dakota State and Michigan are the biggest favorites at their respective levels. Boise State at UNLV and North Dakota State at Montana State are the closest games of the weekend on paper, with Georgia vs. Alabama leading the charge for the Power Five.
| Date | Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
| 12/1/23 | Liberty | 70.5% | New Mexico State | 29.5% | 7.7 |
| 12/1/23 | Oregon | 73.7% | Washington | 26.3% | 9.1 |
| 12/2/23 | Texas | 82.9% | Oklahoma State | 17.1% | 13.9 |
| 12/2/23 | Toledo | 62.5% | Miami (OH) | 37.5% | 4.5 |
| 12/2/23 | UNLV | 50.4% | Boise State | 49.6% | 0.1 |
| 12/2/23 | Troy | 72.5% | Appalachian State | 27.5% | 8.5 |
| 12/2/23 | Alabama | 54.3% | Georgia | 45.7% | 1.5 |
| 12/2/23 | SMU | 55.9% | Tulane | 44.1% | 2.1 |
| 12/2/23 | Michigan | 92.3% | Iowa | 7.7% | 22.0 |
| 12/2/23 | Florida State | 72.1% | Louisville | 27.9% | 8.4 |
| 12/2/23 | Villanova | 64.4% | Youngstown State | 35.6% | 5.2 |
| 12/2/23 | Albany | 52.1% | Richmond | 47.9% | 0.7 |
| 12/2/23 | Furman | 70.9% | Chattanooga | 29.1% | 7.9 |
| 12/2/23 | South Dakota State | 96.1% | Mercer | 3.9% | 28.2 |
| 12/2/23 | South Dakota | 66.9% | Sacramento State | 33.1% | 6.2 |
| 12/2/23 | Montana State | 51.7% | North Dakota State | 48.3% | 0.6 |
| 12/2/23 | Florida A&M | 82.8% | Prairie View A&M | 17.2% | 13.9 |
| 12/2/23 | Montana | 89.7% | Delaware | 10.3% | 19.0 |
| 12/2/23 | Idaho | 59.4% | Southern Illinois | 40.6% | 3.4 |
