Movelor Picks: Week 13, 2023

Our Movelor Week 13 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about one quarter of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly three quarters of a point behind the spread.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

Of the six remaining undefeated FBS teams, all are in action, and two play one another. Between those six teams, Movelor expects a total of 1.56 losses. More likely than not, someone will go down in addition to Michigan or Ohio State. The Movelor lines on those games:

• Michigan –1.6 vs. Ohio State
• Florida State –8.8 at Florida
• Liberty –15.2 at UTEP
• Washington –20.2 vs. Washington State
• Georgia –27.5 at Georgia Tech

Of the nine teams still in the playoff hunt, all nine are in action, and again, only Michigan and Ohio State play one another. Between the nine, Movelor expects 2.12 to go down. Again, in addition to Michigan or Ohio State, someone is likely to lose this weekend. The Movelor lines on the non-undefeateds:

• Louisville –9.1 vs. Kentucky
• Oregon –13.1 vs. Oregon State
• Texas –14.1 vs. Texas Tech
• Alabama –19.5 at Auburn

The FCS playoffs begin this weekend as well. The first-round lines there:

• North Dakota –4.6 vs. Sacramento State
• Mercer –5.4 vs. Gardner-Webb
• Austin Peay –5.5 vs. Chattanooga
• Southern Illinois –11.9 vs. Nicholls
• Delaware –12.5 vs. Lafayette
• Richmond –12.6 vs. North Carolina Central
• Youngstown State –20.7 vs. Duquesne
• North Dakota State –41.1 vs. Drake

Other games of note (limiting this to games with major New Year’s Six or conference title implications, because so many games are good rivalries):

• UTSA –1.0 at Tulane
• Boise State –5.4 vs. Air Force
• Missouri –5.8 at Arkansas
• UNLV –6.2 vs. San Jose State
• James Madison –7.4 at Coastal Carolina
• Oklahoma –8.0 vs. TCU
• Mississippi –8.1 at Mississippi State
• Toledo –11.1 at Central Michigan
• Appalachian State –11.9 vs. Georgia Southern
• Arizona –14.6 at Arizona State
• Kansas State –14.9 vs. Iowa State
• SMU –15.0 vs. Navy
• Oklahoma State –15.7 vs. BYU

The biggest favorite this week is North Dakota State. At the FBS level, it’s Tennessee, who’s favored by 31.9 points over Vanderbilt. The closest game on paper is New Mexico State’s against Jacksonville State, where the two are expected to be separated by three ten-thousandths of a point. This is the closest game on paper so far this year, and by a massive magnitude. The previous closest—East Carolina vs. SMU in October (what a turn those two teams took)—was 0.02. This one’s 0.0003.