Movelor Picks: Week 12, 2023

Our Movelor Week 12 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about one third of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly three quarters of a point behind the spread.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

All seven undefeated FBS teams are in action this week, and none play each other. Movelor expects 1.1 losses from these teams, with some massive favorites among the seven. Here are the lines:

• Washington +0.1 at Oregon State
• Georgia –5.3 at Tennessee
• James Madison –15.0 vs. Appalachian State
• Michigan –23.4 at Maryland
• Ohio State –30.0 vs. Minnesota
• Liberty –32.8 vs. UMass
• Florida State –54.0 vs. North Alabama

Beyond the five undefeated Power Five teams listed above, four more teams are rated by our model as having better than a 1-in-200 chance of making the playoff. Between the nine, taken together, Movelor expects 1.7 losses, signifying two contenders going down is comparably likely to one. This doesn’t mean we’ll see the race narrow by this amount—also, there’s a chance even a two-loss Oregon State could reenter, if given a lot of help—but that’s roughly the amount of “chaos” to expect. Here are the lines for the other four:

• Texas –5.7 at Iowa State
• Louisville –6.7 at Miami
• Oregon –22.9 at Arizona State
• Alabama –46.9 vs. Chattanooga

Other games of note, starting with the Power Five…

• Purdue –0.1 at Northwestern
• NC State –0.1 at Virginia Tech
• Utah –1.5 at Arizona
• USC –5.8 vs. UCLA
• Wisconsin –7.0 vs. Nebraska
• Clemson –7.6 vs. North Carolina
• Oklahoma State –8.2 at Houston
• Texas Tech –8.9 vs. UCF
• West Virginia –11.8 vs. Cincinnati
• Iowa –12.1 vs. Illinois
• Kansas State –12.3 at Kansas
• Missouri –12.5 vs. Florida
• Oklahoma –19.0 at BYU

…continuing with Group of Five title races (and the race for the NY6 bid)…

• Boise State –2.1 at Utah State
• Air Force –3.9 vs. UNLV
• Georgia Southern –4.9 vs. Old Dominion
• SMU –6.9 at Memphis
• Tulane –7.8 at Florida Atlantic
• Toledo –8.2 at Bowling Green State
• Miami (OH) –13.7 vs. Buffalo
• Wyoming –14.3 vs. Hawaii
• San Jose State –16.4 vs. San Diego State
• UTSA –18.8 vs. USF
• Troy –21.2 vs. Louisiana
• Fresno State –29.8 vs. New Mexico

…and finishing with every game we think affects FCS conference titles and the postseason:

• Merrimack –2.1 vs. Duquesne
• Dartmouth –2.7 at Brown
• North Dakota –2.7 vs. Illinois State
• Montana State –2.8 at Montana
• Rhode Island –3.0 at Towson
• UC Davis –3.2 vs. Sacramento State
• Samford –3.5 vs. UT Martin
• Alabama State –4.1 at Prairie View A&M
• Fordham –4.3 at Colgate
• Delaware –4.4 vs. Villanova
• Richmond –4.9 at William & Mary
• Austin Peay –6.3 vs. Central Arkansas
• Yale –6.9 vs. Harvard
• North Dakota State –7.4 at Northern Iowa
• Howard –8.0 vs. Morgan State
• Albany –8.4 vs. Monmouth
• Jackson State –9.3 vs. Alcorn State
• Butler –10.2 vs. Drake
• Lafayette –11.0 at Lehigh
• Davidson –11.4 vs. Dayton
• Western Carolina –12.5 at VMI
• Gardner-Webb –16.7 vs. Charleston Southern
• Weber State –17.8 at Cal Poly
• Youngstown State –18.3 at Murray State
• Southern Illinois –20.9 vs. Indiana State
• Furman –22.0 at Wofford
• Idaho –22.4 vs. Idaho State
• Incarnate Word –24.0 at Houston Christian
• Holy Cross –24.5 vs. Georgetown
• North Carolina Central –25.3 vs. Delaware State
• South Dakota State –31.8 vs. Missouri State
• South Dakota –32.6 at Western Illinois

The biggest favorite this week is Florida State against North Alabama. The biggest favorite in an FBS conference game is Ohio State, playing Minnesota. The closest game on paper is Purdue’s visit to Northwestern. A classic 0.0542-point spread.