Movelor Picks: Week 11, 2023

Our Movelor Week 10 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about one third of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly three quarters of a point behind the spread.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

We’re down to seven undefeated FBS teams, and all seven are in action this week, with none playing each other. Movelor expects 1.4 losses from those seven games, which means we’re not only fairly likely to see an undefeated go down, but that there’s a solid chance we’ll see two. Here are the lines in those games, from where the undefeated is most at risk to where they’re the safest.

• Michigan +0.9 at Penn State
• Washington –5.9 vs. Utah
• Liberty –11.6 vs. Old Dominion
• Georgia –12.6 vs. Mississippi
• Florida State –24.7 vs. Miami (FL)
• James Madison –27.3 vs. UConn
• Ohio State –30.5 vs. Michigan State

Our model gives eleven teams better than a 1-in-500 chance (or 1-in-33, you can draw the line anywhere in there) of making the playoff. Of those eleven, five are the Power Five undefeateds listed above. Two more are Penn State and Mississippi, also listed above. Here are the lines for the other four teams. Overall, Movelor’s expecting 3.0 losses between the eleven teams—in other words, one upset in the seven games not involving Michigan, Penn State, Mississippi, and Georgia.

• Texas –8.8 at TCU
• Alabama –14.4 at Kentucky
• Oregon –20.7 vs. USC
• Louisville –23.0 vs. Virginia

Other games of note, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS Levels…

• Tennessee –6.8 at Missouri
• Iowa –7.5 vs. Rutgers
• Oklahoma State –7.9 at UCF
• Fresno State –3.0 at San Jose State
• SMU –16.6 vs. North Texas
• Air Force –23.1 at Hawaii
• Tulane –23.6 vs. Tulsa
• South Dakota –3.6 vs. North Dakota
• North Dakota State –9.1 vs. Southern Illinois
• South Dakota State –18.0 at Youngstown State

The biggest favorite this week is Kennesaw State, favored by 36.1 against non-D1 Virginia Lynchburg. The biggest FBS favorite is Ohio State against Michigan State. The closest game is expected to be Minnesota’s trip to Purdue, where the Gophers are a 0.2-point favorite. Here’s the full list: