The Barking Crow

Joe Stunardi

Movelor Picks: Week 10, 2023

Joe Stunardi

Our Movelor Week 10 picks are live and can be found in a more sortable format than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about half a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly a point behind the spread.

Picks are below, but first, a few observations:

We’re down to eight undefeated FBS teams, and all eight are in action this week, with none playing each other. Movelor expects 1.2 losses from those eight games, which means more likely than not, someone is going down. Here are the lines, from most at risk to safest:

  • James Madison –3.8 at Georgia State
  • Washington –5.1 at USC
  • Air Force –18.3 vs. Army
  • Liberty –19.1 vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Georgia –19.3 vs. Missouri
  • Florida State –22.3 at Pitt
  • Ohio State –22.8 at Rutgers
  • Michigan –33.3 vs. Purdue

Our model gives fourteen teams better than a 1-in-100 chance of making the playoff. Of those fourteen, five are the Power Five undefeateds listed above. The other nine all play this week, and there are two matchups between them. The two head-to-head games, and the other five, with playoff contenders marked with an asterisk:

  • Texas* –0.5 vs. Kansas State*
  • Alabama* –7.6 vs. LSU*
  • Mississippi* –2.6 vs. Texas A&M
  • Oklahoma* –3.6 at Oklahoma State
  • Louisville* –12.5 vs. Virginia Tech
  • Penn State* –16.3 at Maryland
  • Oregon* –25.6 vs. Cal

Other games of note, at the Power Five, Group of Five, and FCS levels:

  • Arizona –1.5 vs. UCLA
  • Iowa State –6.5 vs. Kansas
  • Notre Dame –9.9 at Clemson
  • Oregon State –20.5 at Colorado
  • Fresno State –8.4 vs. Boise State
  • Troy –9.5 vs. South Alabama
  • Tulane ­–10.1 at East Carolina
  • SMU –14.4 at Rice
  • Montana –5.7 vs. Sacramento State
  • Southern Illinois –10.7 vs. South Dakota
  • South Dakota State –14.4 vs. North Dakota State

The biggest favorite this week is Southern Utah, favored by 44.2 against non-Division I Lincoln University (the California one). Within the FBS, it’s Tennessee, who’s favored by 37.2 against UConn. The game closest to a tossup is Texas Tech vs. TCU, where the Red Raiders are favored by 0.2. Here’s the full list:

DateFavoriteFavorite Win ProbabilityUnderdogUnderdog Win ProbabilityPredicted Margin
10/31/23Northern Illinois60.9%Central Michigan39.1%3.9
10/31/23Toledo78.1%Buffalo21.9%11.2
11/1/23Bowling Green State61.4%Ball State38.6%4.1
11/1/23Akron55.2%Kent State44.8%1.8
11/2/23Texas Tech50.5%TCU49.5%0.2
11/2/23Duke75.6%Wake Forest24.4%9.9
11/2/23Troy74.6%South Alabama25.4%9.5
11/3/23Syracuse75.5%Boston College24.5%9.9
11/3/23Wyoming78.3%Colorado State21.7%11.3
11/4/23Tennessee98.5%UConn1.5%37.2
11/4/23Texas51.5%Kansas State48.5%0.5
11/4/23Ohio State93.0%Rutgers7.0%22.8
11/4/23South Carolina79.8%Jacksonville State20.2%12.1
11/4/23Wisconsin82.2%Indiana17.8%13.5
11/4/23Nebraska54.7%Michigan State45.3%1.6
11/4/23Florida55.6%Arkansas44.4%2.0
11/4/23Notre Dame75.4%Clemson24.6%9.9
11/4/23Mississippi57.4%Texas A&M42.6%2.6
11/4/23North Carolina98.3%Campbell1.7%35.6
11/4/23Sam Houston80.9%Kennesaw State19.1%12.7
11/4/23Virginia63.5%Georgia Tech36.5%4.9
11/4/23Utah89.3%Arizona State10.7%18.7
11/4/23Navy87.7%Temple12.3%17.3
11/4/23Air Force88.8%Army11.2%18.3
11/4/23UTSA64.2%North Texas35.8%5.1
11/4/23Louisiana75.4%Arkansas State24.6%9.9
11/4/23Memphis83.7%USF16.3%14.4
11/4/23UAB55.3%Florida Atlantic44.7%1.9
11/4/23Oklahoma60.0%Oklahoma State40.0%3.6
11/4/23Baylor64.3%Houston35.7%5.2
11/4/23Penn State86.4%Maryland13.6%16.3
11/4/23Louisville80.5%Virginia Tech19.5%12.5
11/4/23UCF58.4%Cincinnati41.6%3.0
11/4/23Coastal Carolina51.1%Old Dominion48.9%0.4
11/4/23Iowa83.6%Northwestern16.4%14.3
11/4/23Minnesota71.9%Illinois28.1%8.3
11/4/23James Madison60.6%Georgia State39.4%3.8
11/4/23Florida State92.6%Pitt7.4%22.3
11/4/23Tulane75.8%East Carolina24.2%10.1
11/4/23Georgia89.9%Missouri10.1%19.3
11/4/23UMass72.2%Merrimack27.8%8.4
11/4/23Tulsa69.7%Charlotte30.3%7.3
11/4/23Southern Miss60.4%Louisiana Monroe39.6%3.7
11/4/23Auburn82.9%Vanderbilt17.1%13.9
11/4/23Nevada77.5%Hawaii22.5%10.9
11/4/23Georgia Southern63.3%Texas State36.7%4.8
11/4/23Oregon94.8%California5.2%25.6
11/4/23Appalachian State61.0%Marshall39.0%3.9
11/4/23New Mexico State67.9%Middle Tennessee32.1%6.6
11/4/23Liberty89.7%Louisiana Tech10.3%19.1
11/4/23UNLV86.6%New Mexico13.4%16.4
11/4/23West Virginia74.8%BYU25.2%9.6
11/4/23Iowa State67.7%Kansas32.3%6.5
11/4/23Utah State50.9%San Diego State49.1%0.3
11/4/23Kentucky52.2%Mississippi State47.8%0.8
11/4/23Michigan97.8%Purdue2.2%33.3
11/4/23Washington64.1%USC35.9%5.1
11/4/23SMU83.7%Rice16.3%14.4
11/4/23Alabama70.2%LSU29.8%7.6
11/4/23NC State55.3%Miami (FL)44.7%1.9
11/4/23Washington State85.7%Stanford14.3%15.8
11/4/23Western Kentucky73.9%UTEP26.1%9.2
11/4/23Oregon State91.1%Colorado8.9%20.5
11/4/23Fresno State72.1%Boise State27.9%8.4
11/4/23Arizona54.1%UCLA45.9%1.5
11/2/23Bethune-Cookman76.5%Mississippi Valley State23.5%10.4
11/3/23Dartmouth53.0%Princeton47.0%1.1
11/4/23Holy Cross91.0%Lehigh9.0%20.4
11/4/23Drake61.4%Marist38.6%4.1
11/4/23San Diego66.1%Presbyterian33.9%5.9
11/4/23Saint Francis (PA)78.5%LIU21.5%11.4
11/4/23Duquesne86.5%Wagner13.5%16.4
11/4/23Central Connecticut State50.9%Sacred Heart49.1%0.3
11/4/23Yale69.0%Brown31.0%7.1
11/4/23Harvard75.9%Columbia24.1%10.1
11/4/23Lafayette86.7%Colgate13.3%16.6
11/4/23Fordham91.5%Bucknell8.5%20.9
11/4/23Gardner-Webb51.0%Bryant49.0%0.4
11/4/23Penn81.2%Cornell18.8%12.9
11/4/23Delaware80.5%Elon19.5%12.5
11/4/23Morgan State84.1%Delaware State15.9%14.7
11/4/23Maine75.8%Hampton24.2%10.1
11/4/23Davidson84.9%Stetson15.1%15.2
11/4/23East Tennessee State70.7%VMI29.3%7.8
11/4/23Albany65.0%William & Mary35.0%5.5
11/4/23New Hampshire58.5%Villanova41.5%3.0
11/4/23Monmouth93.5%Stony Brook6.5%23.5
11/4/23Youngstown State89.8%Indiana State10.2%19.1
11/4/23Towson67.2%North Carolina A&T32.8%6.3
11/4/23Furman59.9%Chattanooga40.1%3.5
11/4/23Florida A&M77.0%Alabama A&M23.0%10.6
11/4/23Butler71.9%Morehead State28.1%8.3
11/4/23Mercer92.3%The Citadel7.7%21.9
11/4/23Southeast Missouri State97.2%Robert Morris2.8%31.4
11/4/23North Dakota89.5%Murray State10.5%18.9
11/4/23Southern Illinois77.2%South Dakota22.8%10.7
11/4/23Dayton54.0%Valparaiso46.0%1.4
11/4/23Northern Iowa98.7%Western Illinois1.3%37.9
11/4/23UT Martin80.2%Tennessee Tech19.8%12.3
11/4/23Alcorn State57.2%Southern42.8%2.6
11/4/23Montana State92.6%Northern Arizona7.4%22.2
11/4/23Idaho96.1%Northern Colorado3.9%28.3
11/4/23Jackson State85.9%Texas Southern14.1%15.9
11/4/23South Dakota State83.7%North Dakota State16.3%14.4
11/4/23Prairie View A&M80.5%Arkansas-Pine Bluff19.5%12.5
11/4/23Abilene Christian80.1%Utah Tech19.9%12.3
11/4/23Western Carolina82.0%Wofford18.0%13.4
11/4/23Illinois State54.3%Missouri State45.7%1.5
11/4/23Eastern Illinois60.1%Lindenwood39.9%3.6
11/4/23Southern Utah99.3%Lincoln University (CA)0.7%44.2
11/4/23North Carolina Central93.1%Norfolk State6.9%22.9
11/4/23Howard63.1%South Carolina State36.9%4.7
11/4/23Eastern Washington87.8%Cal Poly12.2%17.4
11/4/23Alabama State57.7%Grambling State42.3%2.7
11/4/23Incarnate Word88.5%Nicholls11.5%18.0
11/4/23UC Davis70.5%Portland State29.5%7.7
11/4/23Montana65.6%Sacramento State34.4%5.7
11/4/23Tarleton55.2%Stephen F. Austin44.8%1.8
11/4/23Lamar69.9%Texas A&M-Commerce30.1%7.4
11/4/23Austin Peay74.9%Eastern Kentucky25.1%9.6
11/4/23Southeastern Louisiana88.9%McNeese11.1%18.4
11/4/23Tennessee State65.8%Charleston Southern34.2%5.8
11/4/23Central Arkansas77.6%North Alabama22.4%11.0
11/4/23Weber State78.2%Idaho State21.8%11.3
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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