Note: Week 1 bowl projections have been added at the bottom of this post, for archival purposes.
Movelor’s picks for Week 1 are here. As always, they can be found here as well in a more sort-able format.
What is Movelor? It’s an elo and recruiting-based prediction system which was roughly 0.9 points less accurate per game last year than the average Las Vegas closing spread. Here’s its homepage, from which you can find each Division I team’s expected win totals, plus conference championship probabilities and College Football Playoff probabilities.
We’ll have a full Week 1 Preview up tomorrow, but let’s share a few observations about this week’s predictions, and then the picks, with ratings and probabilities below for archival purposes. Again, you can find the picks in a more sort-able place here.
- In the week’s most prominent games, Movelor disagrees with markets right now by 19.2 points on TCU vs. Colorado, 12.7 points on Utah vs. Florida, 11.9 points on Tulane vs. South Alabama, 4.7 points on South Carolina vs. North Carolina, 4.6 points on Clemson vs. Duke, 1.2 points on Washington vs. Boise State, and 1.1 points on LSU vs. Florida State. In those games, it favors TCU, Utah, Tulane, South Carolina, Duke, Boise State, and Florida State, but what this is really telling us is where the market says programs had turnover this offseason. Movelor doesn’t make a whole lot out of program turnover.
- Excluding Florida State and LSU, the only AP Top 25 matchup of the weekend, Movelor views only three ranked teams as more than 10% likely to lose: Utah, UNC, and Clemson. Its expected number of ranked teams to lose to unranked teams is 1.8.
- There are 42 games this week between FBS and FCS programs. Of those 42, Movelor expects 3.5 FCS wins, and has Maine and Incarnate Word as outright favorites over FIU and UTEP. Incarnate Word just underwent a coaching change, though, and FIU exceeded expectations in Week Zero, so I’m not sure the oddsmakers will have the same outlook.
- The biggest favorite this week is defending FCS champion and 27th-ranked South Dakota State, who is favored by 63.9 points against Division II Western Oregon. The closest expected game involving FBS schools is Houston vs. UTSA, where Movelor has the Cougars a 0.8-point, 52.2% favorite.
| Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
| Wake Forest | 96.1% | Elon | 3.9% | 28.1 |
| UCF | 83.6% | Kent State | 16.4% | 14.4 |
| Georgia State | 86.6% | Rhode Island | 13.4% | 16.5 |
| Western Michigan | 86.7% | Saint Francis (PA) | 13.3% | 16.5 |
| NC State | 85.9% | UConn | 14.1% | 15.9 |
| UAB | 94.7% | North Carolina A&T | 5.3% | 25.4 |
| Utah | 86.9% | Florida | 13.1% | 16.7 |
| Missouri | 93.4% | South Dakota | 6.6% | 23.4 |
| Tulsa | 99.2% | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0.8% | 42.3 |
| Minnesota | 78.9% | Nebraska | 21.1% | 11.6 |
| Arizona State | 94.8% | Southern Utah | 5.2% | 25.6 |
| Morehead State | 64.9% | WV State | 35.1% | 5.4 |
| Charleston Southern | 91.0% | North Greenville | 9.0% | 20.3 |
| Indiana State | 85.6% | Eastern Illinois | 14.4% | 15.7 |
| Kennesaw State | 96.0% | Tusculum | 4.0% | 28.0 |
| Delaware | 78.0% | Stony Brook | 22.0% | 11.1 |
| Furman | 96.2% | Tennessee Tech | 3.8% | 28.5 |
| William & Mary | 81.2% | Campbell | 18.8% | 12.9 |
| Sacramento State | 97.8% | Nicholls | 2.2% | 33.4 |
| Youngstown State | 97.8% | Valparaiso | 2.2% | 33.5 |
| UC Davis | 97.6% | Texas A&M-Commerce | 2.4% | 32.6 |
| Idaho | 97.2% | Lamar | 2.8% | 31.2 |
| Lindenwood | 91.3% | Wisconsin-Stevens Point | 8.7% | 20.8 |
| Weber State | 99.6% | Central Washington | 0.4% | 48.8 |
| South Dakota State | 99.9% | Western Oregon | 0.1% | 63.9 |
| Abilene Christian | 83.7% | Northern Colorado | 16.3% | 14.4 |
| Samford | 99.2% | Shorter | 0.8% | 42.9 |
| Eastern Michigan | 95.6% | Howard | 4.4% | 27.1 |
| Michigan State | 90.9% | Central Michigan | 9.1% | 20.3 |
| Miami (FL) | 74.6% | Miami (OH) | 25.4% | 9.5 |
| Louisville | 89.7% | Georgia Tech | 10.3% | 19.1 |
| Kansas | 85.9% | Missouri State | 14.1% | 15.9 |
| Stanford | 59.9% | Hawaii | 40.1% | 3.5 |
| Boston College | 69.9% | Northern Illinois | 30.1% | 7.4 |
| Michigan | 96.0% | East Carolina | 4.0% | 28.1 |
| Tennessee | 96.7% | Virginia | 3.3% | 29.7 |
| SMU | 95.6% | Louisiana Tech | 4.4% | 0.0 |
| Fresno State | 55.5% | Purdue | 44.5% | 1.9 |
| TCU | 98.9% | Colorado | 1.1% | 39.7 |
| Oklahoma | 97.8% | Arkansas State | 2.2% | 33.6 |
| Liberty | 86.9% | Bowling Green State | 13.1% | 16.6 |
| Iowa | 96.1% | Utah State | 3.9% | 28.2 |
| Kentucky | 91.5% | Ball State | 8.5% | 21.0 |
| Ohio | 98.9% | LIU | 1.1% | 39.4 |
| Air Force | 99.9% | Robert Morris | 0.1% | 60.9 |
| Arkansas | 97.2% | Western Carolina | 2.8% | 31.3 |
| Mississippi | 94.6% | Mercer | 5.4% | 25.3 |
| Jacksonville State | 90.1% | East Tennessee State | 9.9% | 19.4 |
| Temple | 76.0% | Akron | 24.0% | 10.2 |
| Iowa State | 82.4% | Northern Iowa | 17.6% | 13.6 |
| Oregon | 99.3% | Portland State | 0.7% | 44.0 |
| Auburn | 98.5% | UMass | 1.5% | 36.8 |
| Texas | 98.6% | Rice | 1.4% | 37.8 |
| Appalachian State | 89.9% | Gardner-Webb | 10.1% | 19.3 |
| Washington | 81.0% | Boise State | 19.0% | 12.8 |
| Pitt | 99.2% | Wofford | 0.8% | 42.4 |
| Wisconsin | 93.2% | Buffalo | 6.8% | 23.0 |
| Cincinnati | 96.8% | Eastern Kentucky | 3.2% | 30.1 |
| Ohio State | 97.0% | Indiana | 3.0% | 30.7 |
| Maryland | 98.4% | Towson | 1.6% | 36.1 |
| Notre Dame | 99.8% | Tennessee State | 0.2% | 57.2 |
| Western Kentucky | 88.1% | USF | 11.9% | 17.6 |
| Mississippi State | 94.2% | Southeastern Louisiana | 5.8% | 24.5 |
| California | 55.2% | North Texas | 44.8% | 1.9 |
| UNLV | 87.8% | Bryant | 12.2% | 17.4 |
| Syracuse | 99.2% | Colgate | 0.8% | 42.8 |
| Florida Atlantic | 90.4% | Monmouth | 9.6% | 19.7 |
| Georgia | 99.9% | UT Martin | 0.1% | 58.9 |
| Georgia Southern | 94.4% | The Citadel | 5.6% | 24.9 |
| Charlotte | 93.0% | South Carolina State | 7.0% | 22.8 |
| Marshall | 94.6% | Albany | 5.4% | 25.2 |
| James Madison | 99.8% | Bucknell | 0.2% | 54.1 |
| Maine | 65.3% | FIU | 34.7% | 5.6 |
| USC | 97.5% | Nevada | 2.5% | 32.4 |
| Baylor | 97.0% | Texas State | 3.0% | 30.7 |
| Army | 84.3% | Louisiana Monroe | 15.7% | 14.8 |
| Houston | 52.2% | UTSA | 47.8% | 0.8 |
| Texas A&M | 98.2% | New Mexico | 1.8% | 35.4 |
| Kansas State | 97.4% | Southeast Missouri State | 2.6% | 32.0 |
| Oklahoma State | 96.4% | Central Arkansas | 3.6% | 29.1 |
| Troy | 97.0% | Stephen F. Austin | 3.0% | 30.6 |
| Southern Miss | 97.3% | Alcorn State | 2.7% | 31.7 |
| Memphis | 99.7% | Bethune-Cookman | 0.3% | 51.5 |
| Vanderbilt | 97.9% | Alabama A&M | 2.1% | 34.1 |
| Washington State | 81.2% | Colorado State | 18.8% | 12.9 |
| Texas Tech | 87.6% | Wyoming | 12.4% | 17.2 |
| Alabama | 99.0% | Middle Tennessee | 1.0% | 40.5 |
| Illinois | 89.9% | Toledo | 10.1% | 19.3 |
| Penn State | 93.3% | West Virginia | 6.7% | 23.2 |
| South Carolina | 56.3% | North Carolina | 43.7% | 2.2 |
| Tulane | 89.0% | South Alabama | 11.0% | 18.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 75.0% | Old Dominion | 25.0% | 9.7 |
| Louisiana | 98.7% | Northwestern State | 1.3% | 38.2 |
| New Mexico State | 90.6% | Western Illinois | 9.4% | 20.0 |
| Incarnate Word | 80.8% | UTEP | 19.2% | 12.7 |
| Arizona | 93.9% | Northern Arizona | 6.1% | 24.0 |
| BYU | 94.5% | Sam Houston | 5.5% | 25.1 |
| UCLA | 89.2% | Coastal Carolina | 10.8% | 18.6 |
| San Diego State | 98.5% | Idaho State | 1.5% | 37.1 |
| Duquesne | 89.3% | Edinboro | 10.7% | 18.7 |
| Villanova | 78.7% | Lehigh | 21.3% | 11.5 |
| Georgetown | 61.2% | Marist | 38.8% | 4.0 |
| Illinois State | 85.8% | Dayton | 14.2% | 15.9 |
| Delaware State | 76.2% | Bowie State | 23.8% | 10.3 |
| New Hampshire | 91.4% | Stonehill | 8.6% | 20.9 |
| VMI | 52.1% | Davidson | 47.9% | 0.7 |
| Holy Cross | 94.3% | Merrimack | 5.7% | 24.7 |
| St. Thomas | 96.2% | Black Hills State | 3.8% | 28.6 |
| Norfolk State | 69.7% | Virginia State | 30.3% | 7.3 |
| Montana | 98.6% | Butler | 1.4% | 37.2 |
| Hampton | 75.9% | Grambling State | 24.1% | 10.1 |
| North Dakota State | 92.8% | Eastern Washington | 7.2% | 22.6 |
| Mississippi Valley State | 56.1% | Central State | 43.9% | 2.2 |
| North Carolina Central | 96.5% | Winston-Salem | 3.5% | 29.3 |
| North Dakota | 97.8% | Drake | 2.2% | 33.4 |
| Central Connecticut State | 81.3% | American International | 18.7% | 12.9 |
| Cal Poly | 59.7% | San Diego | 40.3% | 3.5 |
| Fordham | 98.3% | Wagner | 1.7% | 35.8 |
| Stetson | 73.3% | St. Thomas University (Fl) | 26.7% | 8.9 |
| Southern | 66.8% | Alabama State | 33.2% | 6.2 |
| Sacred Heart | 56.9% | Lafayette | 43.1% | 2.4 |
| Richmond | 97.9% | Morgan State | 2.1% | 33.9 |
| Houston Christian | 60.4% | Arkansas Baptist | 39.6% | 3.7 |
| Chattanooga | 77.6% | North Alabama | 22.4% | 0.0 |
| Southern Illinois | 57.9% | Austin Peay | 42.1% | 2.8 |
| Murray State | 94.7% | Presbyterian | 5.3% | 25.4 |
| Texas Southern | 53.8% | Prairie View A&M | 46.2% | 1.3 |
| Montana State | 97.3% | Utah Tech | 2.7% | 31.6 |
| Tarleton | 51.6% | McNeese | 48.4% | 0.6 |
| Rutgers | 54.3% | Northwestern | 45.7% | 1.5 |
| Oregon State | 93.1% | San Jose State | 6.9% | 0.0 |
| LSU | 53.8% | Florida State | 46.2% | 1.4 |
| Jackson State | 72.2% | Florida A&M | 27.8% | 0.0 |
| Clemson | 72.1% | Duke | 27.9% | 8.4 |
| Rank | Team | Movelor | Conference | Projected Wins | Division Title | Conference Championship | Make Playoff | National Championship |
| 1 | Georgia | 47.5 | SEC | 11.8 | 73.5% | 49.0% | 65.8% | 27.8% |
| 2 | Ohio State | 42.8 | Big Ten | 10.4 | 38.7% | 30.3% | 40.5% | 12.3% |
| 3 | Alabama | 42.3 | SEC | 10.8 | 64.2% | 27.4% | 41.5% | 12.7% |
| 4 | Michigan | 41.7 | Big Ten | 10.5 | 34.6% | 26.5% | 38.7% | 11.0% |
| 5 | Tennessee | 39.2 | SEC | 10.1 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 25.2% | 7.3% |
| 6 | Penn State | 38.9 | Big Ten | 10.0 | 24.4% | 18.2% | 25.4% | 6.2% |
| 7 | Utah | 34.5 | Pac-12 | 9.8 | 0.0% | 29.7% | 17.9% | 3.0% |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 32.0 | FBS Independents | 8.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 1.8% |
| 9 | TCU | 31.5 | Big 12 | 9.1 | 0.0% | 19.4% | 10.5% | 1.4% |
| 10 | LSU | 31.1 | SEC | 8.7 | 20.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 1.3% |
| 11 | Kansas State | 30.6 | Big 12 | 8.9 | 0.0% | 17.9% | 7.0% | 1.0% |
| 12 | Clemson | 30.4 | ACC | 9.5 | 0.0% | 26.2% | 13.4% | 1.8% |
| 13 | Texas | 30.3 | Big 12 | 8.2 | 0.0% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 0.8% |
| 14 | Oregon State | 29.9 | Pac-12 | 9.5 | 0.0% | 18.6% | 9.0% | 1.1% |
| 15 | Florida State | 29.7 | ACC | 9.3 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 10.3% | 1.4% |
| 16 | Iowa | 29.6 | Big Ten | 8.7 | 35.6% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| 17 | Oregon | 28.6 | Pac-12 | 8.7 | 0.0% | 14.4% | 6.0% | 0.9% |
| 18 | Texas Tech | 28.6 | Big 12 | 8.3 | 0.0% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 0.7% |
| 19 | Minnesota | 28.4 | Big Ten | 7.6 | 16.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| 20 | Washington | 28.3 | Pac-12 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 14.1% | 6.2% | 0.8% |
| 21 | USC | 27.7 | Pac-12 | 8.9 | 0.0% | 15.4% | 6.2% | 0.9% |
| 22 | Louisville | 26.8 | ACC | 9.5 | 0.0% | 21.9% | 7.9% | 0.8% |
| 23 | Oklahoma | 26.5 | Big 12 | 8.4 | 0.0% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| 24 | Illinois | 26.3 | Big Ten | 7.8 | 19.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| 25 | Tulane | 25.8 | American | 10.3 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 26 | Wisconsin | 25.0 | Big Ten | 7.7 | 19.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Fresno State | 24.5 | Mountain West | 10.5 | 0.0% | 41.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| 28 | Pitt | 23.7 | ACC | 7.6 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Baylor | 23.5 | Big 12 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 30 | Air Force | 23.3 | Mountain West | 10.4 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| 31 | Mississippi | 22.9 | SEC | 6.7 | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Arkansas | 22.8 | SEC | 7.3 | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Mississippi State | 22.8 | SEC | 7.0 | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 34 | Maryland | 22.5 | Big Ten | 7.2 | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Kentucky | 22.4 | SEC | 6.6 | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 36 | Wake Forest | 21.6 | ACC | 7.4 | 0.0% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| 37 | Texas A&M | 21.5 | SEC | 6.7 | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 38 | South Carolina | 21.4 | SEC | 6.3 | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 39 | UCLA | 21.4 | Pac-12 | 7.9 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 40 | Oklahoma State | 21.4 | Big 12 | 7.5 | 0.0% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 41 | Michigan State | 21.0 | Big Ten | 5.7 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Florida | 20.9 | SEC | 5.7 | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 43 | James Madison | 20.7 | Sun Belt | 9.2 | 38.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Auburn | 19.9 | SEC | 6.3 | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Iowa State | 19.8 | Big 12 | 5.5 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Nebraska | 19.7 | Big Ten | 6.5 | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Purdue | 19.6 | Big Ten | 5.3 | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 48 | North Carolina | 19.2 | ACC | 7.0 | 0.0% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| 49 | Duke | 19.0 | ACC | 6.4 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 50 | Washington State | 18.9 | Pac-12 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 51 | West Virginia | 18.7 | Big 12 | 5.4 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Boise State | 18.5 | Mountain West | 7.8 | 0.0% | 14.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Memphis | 18.4 | American | 8.9 | 0.0% | 16.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 54 | NC State | 18.3 | ACC | 6.8 | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Troy | 18.0 | Sun Belt | 8.4 | 43.2% | 27.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Cincinnati | 17.9 | Big 12 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 57 | BYU | 17.7 | Big 12 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 58 | UTSA | 16.9 | American | 7.7 | 0.0% | 11.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 59 | East Carolina | 16.6 | American | 7.5 | 0.0% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Syracuse | 16.3 | ACC | 6.4 | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 61 | SMU | 16.3 | American | 8.0 | 0.0% | 11.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Missouri | 16.1 | SEC | 5.0 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Western Kentucky | 16.1 | Conference USA | 9.6 | 0.0% | 57.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Army | 15.1 | FBS Independents | 6.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 65 | UCF | 14.8 | Big 12 | 5.2 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Houston | 14.7 | Big 12 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Kansas | 14.4 | Big 12 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Marshall | 13.2 | Sun Belt | 7.3 | 19.9% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Louisiana | 12.5 | Sun Belt | 7.8 | 26.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Arizona | 12.4 | Pac-12 | 5.1 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 71 | California | 11.8 | Pac-12 | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Georgia State | 11.6 | Sun Belt | 6.9 | 11.9% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 73 | Miami (FL) | 11.2 | ACC | 5.7 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Arizona State | 11.0 | Pac-12 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Navy | 10.6 | American | 5.8 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 76 | San Diego State | 10.6 | Mountain West | 6.6 | 0.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 77 | South Alabama | 10.4 | Sun Belt | 6.3 | 13.6% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Appalachian State | 10.3 | Sun Belt | 6.6 | 14.3% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 79 | Ohio | 10.0 | MAC | 7.8 | 45.6% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 80 | Toledo | 10.0 | MAC | 8.1 | 32.3% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 81 | UAB | 9.7 | American | 5.9 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 82 | Virginia | 9.4 | ACC | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 83 | Indiana | 9.1 | Big Ten | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84 | Virginia Tech | 8.8 | ACC | 4.3 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 85 | Liberty | 8.5 | Conference USA | 8.8 | 0.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 86 | Wyoming | 8.4 | Mountain West | 5.9 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 87 | Tulsa | 8.1 | American | 6.1 | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 88 | Georgia Tech | 7.7 | ACC | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 89 | Eastern Michigan | 7.7 | MAC | 7.5 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 90 | Southern Miss | 7.5 | Sun Belt | 5.8 | 13.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 91 | Northwestern | 7.1 | Big Ten | 3.4 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 92 | North Texas | 7.0 | American | 6.0 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 93 | Coastal Carolina | 5.8 | Sun Belt | 5.8 | 7.4% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 94 | Vanderbilt | 5.7 | SEC | 3.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 95 | Georgia Southern | 5.7 | Sun Belt | 5.8 | 5.9% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 96 | Rutgers | 5.6 | Big Ten | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 97 | Stanford | 5.5 | Pac-12 | 3.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 98 | Western Michigan | 5.4 | MAC | 5.4 | 13.6% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 99 | Buffalo | 5.0 | MAC | 6.0 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 100 | Middle Tennessee | 4.7 | Conference USA | 6.7 | 0.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 101 | Miami (OH) | 4.7 | MAC | 6.5 | 16.5% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 102 | Ball State | 4.4 | MAC | 5.8 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 103 | Utah State | 4.3 | Mountain West | 5.1 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 104 | Florida Atlantic | 4.2 | American | 4.8 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 105 | San Jose State | 4.0 | Mountain West | 4.5 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 106 | Central Michigan | 3.7 | MAC | 5.1 | 11.1% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 107 | Jacksonville State | 3.6 | Conference USA | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 108 | Kent State | 3.4 | MAC | 5.5 | 15.1% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 109 | Boston College | 3.2 | ACC | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 110 | Colorado State | 3.0 | Mountain West | 5.2 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 111 | Old Dominion | 2.1 | Sun Belt | 4.1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 112 | USF | 1.4 | American | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 113 | UNLV | 1.3 | Mountain West | 5.2 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 114 | UTEP | 0.9 | Conference USA | 5.0 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 115 | Temple | 0.3 | American | 4.5 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 116 | UConn | -0.6 | FBS Independents | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 117 | Hawaii | -1.0 | Mountain West | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 118 | Northern Illinois | -1.2 | MAC | 4.2 | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 119 | Nevada | -1.6 | Mountain West | 4.1 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 120 | Louisiana Monroe | -2.7 | Sun Belt | 3.6 | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 121 | New Mexico State | -2.8 | Conference USA | 5.5 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 122 | Arkansas State | -4.0 | Sun Belt | 3.8 | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 123 | Texas State | -4.2 | Sun Belt | 3.3 | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 124 | Sam Houston | -4.4 | Conference USA | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 125 | Rice | -4.4 | American | 3.3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 126 | Bowling Green State | -5.1 | MAC | 3.6 | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 127 | Colorado | -5.2 | Pac-12 | 1.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 128 | Akron | -6.8 | MAC | 3.5 | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 129 | Louisiana Tech | -7.9 | Conference USA | 3.9 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 130 | Charlotte | -8.4 | American | 2.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 131 | New Mexico | -10.9 | Mountain West | 3.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 132 | UMass | -14.0 | FBS Independents | 3.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 133 | FIU | -17.6 | Conference USA | 1.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rank | Team | Movelor | Conference | Projected Wins | Conference Championship |
| 1 | South Dakota State | 24.9 | MVFC | 10.0 | 63.9% |
| 2 | Incarnate Word | 16.5 | Southland | 10.5 | 87.0% |
| 3 | Montana State | 14.5 | Big Sky | 8.2 | 17.4% |
| 4 | North Dakota State | 14.4 | MVFC | 8.7 | 15.2% |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 13.3 | Big Sky | 8.7 | 19.2% |
| 6 | UC Davis | 11.9 | Big Sky | 8.3 | 22.9% |
| 7 | Montana | 10.5 | Big Sky | 8.5 | 12.2% |
| 8 | Weber State | 9.8 | Big Sky | 7.7 | 21.1% |
| 9 | Northern Iowa | 9.2 | MVFC | 7.0 | 8.1% |
| 10 | Furman | 7.3 | Southern | 8.3 | 38.8% |
| 11 | Richmond | 5.4 | CAA | 8.4 | 26.9% |
| 12 | Idaho | 4.9 | Big Sky | 6.8 | 6.6% |
| 13 | North Dakota | 4.0 | MVFC | 6.8 | 2.8% |
| 14 | Samford | 3.9 | Southern | 8.0 | 29.5% |
| 15 | William & Mary | 3.2 | CAA | 8.2 | 23.3% |
| 16 | Austin Peay | 2.1 | UAC | 7.6 | 40.4% |
| 17 | Holy Cross | 2.0 | Patriot | 8.3 | 70.7% |
| 18 | Southern Illinois | 1.9 | MVFC | 6.2 | 3.4% |
| 19 | Southeast Missouri State | 1.6 | Big South-OVC | 7.9 | 45.1% |
| 20 | Missouri State | 1.5 | MVFC | 5.8 | 1.9% |
| 21 | Youngstown State | 1.5 | MVFC | 6.5 | 3.3% |
| 22 | Southeastern Louisiana | 1.3 | Southland | 7.6 | 12.2% |
| 23 | Mercer | 0.6 | Southern | 7.5 | 16.3% |
| 24 | Jackson State | -1.6 | SWAC | 10.2 | 60.5% |
| 25 | Rhode Island | -1.9 | CAA | 7.0 | 11.1% |
| 26 | Yale | -2.1 | Ivy | 7.3 | 31.1% |
| 27 | Chattanooga | -3.1 | Southern | 6.4 | 9.4% |
| 28 | Princeton | -3.5 | Ivy | 7.2 | 25.7% |
| 29 | Elon | -3.5 | CAA | 6.0 | 6.9% |
| 30 | South Dakota | -4.3 | MVFC | 5.3 | 0.7% |
| 31 | Central Arkansas | -4.7 | UAC | 6.0 | 17.2% |
| 32 | New Hampshire | -4.7 | CAA | 6.7 | 8.0% |
| 33 | Delaware | -4.8 | CAA | 6.8 | 11.0% |
| 34 | Illinois State | -5.4 | MVFC | 6.1 | 0.6% |
| 35 | Gardner-Webb | -5.9 | Big South-OVC | 6.1 | 24.3% |
| 36 | Saint Francis (PA) | -8.1 | NEC | 7.4 | 60.0% |
| 37 | Eastern Washington | -8.1 | Big Sky | 3.7 | 0.4% |
| 38 | Dartmouth | -8.2 | Ivy | 5.9 | 13.0% |
| 39 | Harvard | -8.3 | Ivy | 5.6 | 12.2% |
| 40 | UT Martin | -8.4 | Big South-OVC | 6.0 | 13.0% |
| 41 | Western Carolina | -8.5 | Southern | 5.1 | 4.0% |
| 42 | Abilene Christian | -8.6 | UAC | 5.2 | 10.8% |
| 43 | Northern Arizona | -8.6 | Big Sky | 3.3 | 0.0% |
| 44 | Albany | -9.0 | CAA | 5.9 | 3.2% |
| 45 | Maine | -9.0 | CAA | 5.3 | 2.1% |
| 46 | Eastern Kentucky | -9.2 | UAC | 4.3 | 9.3% |
| 47 | Penn | -9.4 | Ivy | 6.3 | 9.8% |
| 48 | Fordham | -9.5 | Patriot | 7.2 | 23.3% |
| 49 | Stephen F. Austin | -9.6 | UAC | 5.8 | 8.8% |
| 50 | North Carolina Central | -9.7 | MEAC | 7.5 | 53.6% |
| 51 | Villanova | -9.9 | CAA | 5.4 | 2.7% |
| 52 | Florida A&M | -10.1 | SWAC | 8.2 | 14.9% |
| 53 | St. Thomas | -10.4 | Pioneer | 8.2 | 42.1% |
| 54 | Columbia | -10.6 | Ivy | 6.0 | 6.8% |
| 55 | Towson | -10.7 | CAA | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| 56 | Kennesaw State | -11.0 | FCS Independents | 5.6 | 0.0% |
| 57 | Southern Utah | -11.7 | UAC | 4.4 | 5.7% |
| 58 | Portland State | -12.4 | Big Sky | 4.2 | 0.2% |
| 59 | Monmouth | -12.5 | CAA | 5.1 | 1.1% |
| 60 | Campbell | -12.7 | CAA | 3.9 | 0.9% |
| 61 | North Carolina A&T | -12.7 | CAA | 4.4 | 0.9% |
| 62 | East Tennessee State | -12.8 | Southern | 4.2 | 0.8% |
| 63 | Bryant | -13.1 | Big South-OVC | 5.6 | 8.2% |
| 64 | Indiana State | -13.2 | MVFC | 3.7 | 0.3% |
| 65 | Utah Tech | -14.1 | UAC | 3.0 | 3.5% |
| 66 | Wofford | -15.7 | Southern | 3.6 | 0.7% |
| 67 | Tarleton | -16.1 | UAC | 4.7 | 2.5% |
| 68 | The Citadel | -16.2 | Southern | 3.8 | 0.4% |
| 69 | Howard | -16.4 | MEAC | 6.1 | 29.9% |
| 70 | North Alabama | -17.1 | UAC | 2.9 | 1.8% |
| 71 | Southern | -17.9 | SWAC | 7.2 | 10.6% |
| 72 | Tennessee Tech | -18.2 | Big South-OVC | 4.4 | 2.7% |
| 73 | Lindenwood | -18.2 | Big South-OVC | 4.5 | 2.0% |
| 74 | Dayton | -18.3 | Pioneer | 7.3 | 15.2% |
| 75 | Charleston Southern | -18.7 | Big South-OVC | 4.4 | 3.0% |
| 76 | Cornell | -18.7 | Ivy | 4.1 | 1.1% |
| 77 | Stony Brook | -19.0 | CAA | 2.8 | 0.1% |
| 78 | McNeese | -19.7 | Southland | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 79 | Merrimack | -19.7 | NEC | 6.2 | 12.1% |
| 80 | Western Illinois | -19.8 | MVFC | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 81 | Northern Colorado | -20.0 | Big Sky | 1.9 | 0.0% |
| 82 | Hampton | -20.2 | CAA | 3.7 | 0.1% |
| 83 | Duquesne | -20.3 | NEC | 5.2 | 12.0% |
| 84 | Cal Poly | -20.5 | Big Sky | 2.7 | 0.0% |
| 85 | San Diego | -21.0 | Pioneer | 6.6 | 12.9% |
| 86 | Alcorn State | -21.2 | SWAC | 5.3 | 5.0% |
| 87 | Prairie View A&M | -21.4 | SWAC | 5.5 | 3.9% |
| 88 | Davidson | -21.6 | Pioneer | 7.5 | 13.4% |
| 89 | Tennessee State | -22.2 | Big South-OVC | 4.7 | 1.2% |
| 90 | Northwestern State | -22.7 | Southland | 4.0 | 0.2% |
| 91 | Nicholls | -23.1 | Southland | 3.0 | 0.1% |
| 92 | Texas Southern | -23.1 | SWAC | 4.6 | 2.3% |
| 93 | Brown | -23.1 | Ivy | 2.3 | 0.4% |
| 94 | Colgate | -23.5 | Patriot | 3.6 | 1.8% |
| 95 | Idaho State | -23.5 | Big Sky | 1.1 | 0.0% |
| 96 | Texas A&M-Commerce | -23.7 | Southland | 3.0 | 0.1% |
| 97 | Butler | -23.8 | Pioneer | 6.2 | 5.9% |
| 98 | VMI | -23.9 | Southern | 2.5 | 0.1% |
| 99 | Lafayette | -24.2 | Patriot | 3.6 | 1.9% |
| 100 | Lehigh | -24.4 | Patriot | 3.8 | 1.7% |
| 101 | Sacred Heart | -24.8 | NEC | 4.8 | 5.2% |
| 102 | Alabama A&M | -25.3 | SWAC | 5.3 | 0.8% |
| 103 | Murray State | -25.4 | MVFC | 1.6 | 0.0% |
| 104 | Morgan State | -25.4 | MEAC | 3.2 | 6.8% |
| 105 | Eastern Illinois | -25.9 | Big South-OVC | 3.0 | 0.6% |
| 106 | Central Connecticut State | -26.1 | NEC | 5.0 | 4.2% |
| 107 | LIU | -26.4 | NEC | 3.5 | 4.3% |
| 108 | Drake | -26.5 | Pioneer | 5.2 | 5.1% |
| 109 | Alabama State | -27.1 | SWAC | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 110 | South Carolina State | -28.2 | MEAC | 3.3 | 3.8% |
| 111 | Stonehill | -28.6 | NEC | 3.4 | 2.3% |
| 112 | Delaware State | -28.7 | MEAC | 3.8 | 4.0% |
| 113 | Valparaiso | -29.0 | Pioneer | 4.8 | 1.8% |
| 114 | Lamar | -29.2 | Southland | 2.9 | 0.0% |
| 115 | Stetson | -30.1 | Pioneer | 4.8 | 2.5% |
| 116 | Bethune-Cookman | -30.1 | SWAC | 3.4 | 0.2% |
| 117 | Grambling State | -30.4 | SWAC | 4.0 | 0.8% |
| 118 | Bucknell | -30.4 | Patriot | 2.9 | 0.4% |
| 119 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -31.2 | SWAC | 3.4 | 0.6% |
| 120 | Norfolk State | -31.7 | MEAC | 2.8 | 1.9% |
| 121 | Georgetown | -33.0 | Patriot | 3.0 | 0.2% |
| 122 | Morehead State | -33.6 | Pioneer | 3.3 | 0.5% |
| 123 | Mississippi Valley State | -33.8 | SWAC | 3.1 | 0.0% |
| 124 | Marist | -34.0 | Pioneer | 3.6 | 0.5% |
| 125 | Robert Morris | -34.6 | Big South-OVC | 1.7 | 0.0% |
| 126 | Houston Christian | -35.3 | Southland | 2.1 | 0.0% |
| 127 | Wagner | -42.3 | NEC | 1.4 | 0.1% |
| 128 | Presbyterian | -47.8 | Pioneer | 1.3 | 0.0% |
| Date | Bowl | Team 1 | Team 2 | T1 Conference | T2 Conference |
| 1/1/24 | Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal) | Georgia | Michigan | SEC | Big Ten |
| 1/1/24 | Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal) | Ohio State | Alabama | Big Ten | SEC |
| 1/1/24 | Fiesta Bowl | Penn State | Utah | Big Ten | Pac-12 |
| 1/1/24 | ReliaQuest Bowl | South Carolina | Minnesota | SEC | Big Ten |
| 1/1/24 | Citrus Bowl | Mississippi | Iowa | SEC | Big Ten |
| 12/30/23 | Orange Bowl | Clemson | Tennessee | ACC | SEC |
| 12/30/23 | Peach Bowl | Notre Dame | Fresno State | FBS Independents | Mountain West |
| 12/30/23 | Music City Bowl | Illinois | Auburn | Big Ten | SEC |
| 12/30/23 | Arizona Bowl | Miami (OH) | Coastal Carolina | MAC | Sun Belt |
| 12/29/23 | Cotton Bowl | TCU | LSU | Big 12 | SEC |
| 12/29/23 | Gator Bowl | Louisville | Florida | ACC | SEC |
| 12/29/23 | Sun Bowl | NC State | Washington | ACC | Pac-12 |
| 12/29/23 | Liberty Bowl | Oklahoma | Arkansas | Big 12 | SEC |
| 12/28/23 | Pinstripe Bowl | Pitt | Wisconsin | ACC | Big Ten |
| 12/28/23 | Pop-Tarts Bowl | Florida State | Texas | ACC | Big 12 |
| 12/28/23 | Fenway Bowl | Duke | Memphis | ACC | AAC |
| 12/28/23 | Alamo Bowl | Kansas State | Oregon | Big 12 | Pac-12 |
| 12/27/23 | Duke’s Mayo Bowl | North Carolina | Kentucky | ACC | SEC |
| 12/27/23 | Military Bowl | Syracuse | UTSA | ACC | AAC |
| 12/27/23 | Holiday Bowl | Oregon State | Wake Forest | Pac-12 | ACC |
| 12/27/23 | Texas Bowl | Texas Tech | Texas A&M | Big 12 | SEC |
| 12/26/23 | Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Oklahoma State | Maryland | Big 12 | Big Ten |
| 12/26/23 | Quick Lane Bowl | Ohio | Nebraska | MAC | Big Ten |
| 12/26/23 | First Responder Bowl | Cincinnati | Tulane | Big 12 | AAC |
| 12/23/23 | Hawaii Bowl | Air Force | UAB | Mountain West | AAC |
| 12/23/23 | Armed Forces Bowl | BYU | Western Kentucky | Big 12 | Conference USA |
| 12/23/23 | 68 Ventures Bowl | Ball State | Appalachian State | MAC | Sun Belt |
| 12/23/23 | Birmingham Bowl | Troy | Mississippi State | Sun Belt | SEC |
| 12/23/23 | Las Vegas Bowl | Michigan State | USC | Big Ten | Pac-12 |
| 12/23/23 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Buffalo | Wyoming | MAC | Mountain West |
| 12/23/23 | Camellia Bowl | Toledo | Georgia Southern | MAC | Sun Belt |
| 12/22/23 | Gasparilla Bowl | Miami (FL) | SMU | ACC | AAC |
| 12/21/23 | Boca Raton Bowl | Tulsa | South Alabama | AAC | Sun Belt |
| 12/19/23 | Frisco Bowl | Southern Miss | Army | Sun Belt | FBS Independents |
| 12/18/23 | Myrtle Beach Bowl | East Carolina | Georgia State | AAC | Sun Belt |
| 12/16/23 | Independence Bowl | Baylor | Washington State | Big 12 | Pac-12 |
| 12/16/23 | New Orleans Bowl | Liberty | Louisiana | Conference USA | Sun Belt |
| 12/16/23 | Celebration Bowl | North Carolina Central | Jackson State | MEAC | SWAC |
| 12/16/23 | LA Bowl | Boise State | UCLA | Mountain West | Pac-12 |
| 12/16/23 | New Mexico Bowl | North Texas | San Diego State | AAC | Mountain West |
| 12/16/23 | Bahamas Bowl | Middle Tennessee | Eastern Michigan | Conference USA | MAC |
| 12/16/23 | Cure Bowl | Navy | Marshall | AAC | Sun Belt |
