Our Movelor picks are live for the Army/Navy game, all bowl games besides the College Football Playoff championship, and the FCS quarterfinals. They can always be found in a better-formatted table than this one here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used across all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread. So far this year, it’s running about one third of a point behind each of ESPN’s FPI and SP+, and roughly three quarters of a point behind the spread.
The Army/Navy line:
- Army –0.8 vs. Navy
Bowl matchups involving ranked teams (or teams who would be ranked if the College Football Playoff was willing to rank FCS-to-FBS transitioners):
- Michigan –2.5 vs. Alabama
- Texas –5.1 vs. Washington
- Georgia –6.6 vs. Florida State
- Ohio State –13.9 vs. Missouri
- Penn State –14.4 vs. Penn State
- Oregon –21.7 vs. Liberty
- Tennessee –6.8 vs. Iowa
- LSU –14.9 vs. Wisconsin
- Notre Dame –9.0 vs. Oregon State
- Clemson –5.8 vs. Kentucky
- Oklahoma –3.6 vs. Arizona
- Kansas State –8.1 vs. NC State
- SMU –21.8 vs. Boston College
- Texas A&M –6.7 vs. Oklahoma State
- Louisville –3.3 vs. USC
- James Madison –9.5 vs. Air Force
The FCS quarterfinals:
- South Dakota State –22.6 vs. Villanova
- Montana –13.8 vs. Furman
- North Dakota State –9.9 vs. South Dakota
- Idaho –6.8 vs. Albany
The biggest Movelor favorite of bowl season is SMU, in the Fenway Bowl against Boston College. They’re favored by 18.8 points even if you give Boston College full home-field advantage (Movelor treats it as a neutral-site game). The closest bowl game on paper is the Arizona Bowl, where Toledo is favored by 0.05 points over Wyoming.
| Date | Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
| 12/9/23 | Army | 52.3% | Navy | 47.7% | 0.8 |
| 12/8/23 | Montana | 82.7% | Furman | 17.3% | 13.8 |
| 12/9/23 | South Dakota State | 92.9% | Villanova | 7.1% | 22.6 |
| 12/9/23 | North Dakota State | 75.4% | South Dakota | 24.6% | 9.9 |
| 12/9/23 | Idaho | 68.3% | Albany | 31.7% | 6.8 |
| 12/16/23 | Ohio | 70.1% | Georgia Southern | 29.9% | 7.5 |
| 12/16/23 | Florida A&M | 69.8% | Howard | 30.2% | 7.4 |
| 12/16/23 | Jacksonville State | 54.5% | Louisiana | 45.5% | 1.6 |
| 12/16/23 | Appalachian State | 52.1% | Miami (OH) | 47.9% | 0.8 |
| 12/16/23 | Fresno State | 54.3% | New Mexico State | 45.7% | 1.5 |
| 12/16/23 | Boise State | 53.2% | UCLA | 46.8% | 1.1 |
| 12/16/23 | Texas Tech | 57.4% | California | 42.6% | 2.6 |
| 12/18/23 | Old Dominion | 57.2% | Western Kentucky | 42.8% | 2.6 |
| 12/19/23 | UTSA | 83.5% | Marshall | 16.5% | 14.3 |
| 12/21/23 | Syracuse | 70.9% | USF | 29.1% | 7.9 |
| 12/22/23 | UCF | 66.5% | Georgia Tech | 33.5% | 6.1 |
| 12/23/23 | Troy | 62.2% | Duke | 37.8% | 4.4 |
| 12/23/23 | Northern Illinois | 50.3% | Arkansas State | 49.7% | 0.1 |
| 12/23/23 | James Madison | 74.6% | Air Force | 25.4% | 9.5 |
| 12/23/23 | Georgia State | 51.4% | Utah State | 48.6% | 0.5 |
| 12/23/23 | South Alabama | 82.3% | Eastern Michigan | 17.7% | 13.6 |
| 12/23/23 | Utah | 64.5% | Northwestern | 35.5% | 5.3 |
| 12/23/23 | San Jose State | 73.9% | Coastal Carolina | 26.1% | 9.2 |
| 12/26/23 | Minnesota | 64.3% | Bowling Green State | 35.7% | 5.2 |
| 12/26/23 | Rice | 51.6% | Texas State | 48.4% | 0.6 |
| 12/26/23 | Kansas | 79.9% | UNLV | 20.1% | 12.2 |
| 12/27/23 | Virginia Tech | 52.9% | Tulane | 47.1% | 1.0 |
| 12/27/23 | West Virginia | 60.2% | North Carolina | 39.8% | 3.6 |
| 12/27/23 | Louisville | 59.2% | USC | 40.8% | 3.3 |
| 12/27/23 | Texas A&M | 68.1% | Oklahoma State | 31.9% | 6.7 |
| 12/28/23 | SMU | 92.3% | Boston College | 7.7% | 21.8 |
| 12/28/23 | Miami (FL) | 59.1% | Rutgers | 40.9% | 3.3 |
| 12/28/23 | Kansas State | 71.4% | NC State | 28.6% | 8.1 |
| 12/28/23 | Oklahoma | 60.1% | Arizona | 39.9% | 3.6 |
| 12/29/23 | Clemson | 65.9% | Kentucky | 34.1% | 5.8 |
| 12/29/23 | Notre Dame | 73.6% | Oregon State | 26.4% | 9.0 |
| 12/29/23 | Iowa State | 69.9% | Memphis | 30.1% | 7.4 |
| 12/29/23 | Ohio State | 82.9% | Missouri | 17.1% | 13.9 |
| 12/30/23 | Penn State | 83.6% | Mississippi | 16.4% | 14.4 |
| 12/30/23 | Auburn | 52.1% | Maryland | 47.9% | 0.8 |
| 12/30/23 | Georgia | 67.9% | Florida State | 32.1% | 6.6 |
| 12/30/23 | Toledo | 50.1% | Wyoming | 49.9% | 0.05 |
| 1/1/24 | LSU | 84.4% | Wisconsin | 15.6% | 14.9 |
| 1/1/24 | Oregon | 92.1% | Liberty | 7.9% | 21.7 |
| 1/1/24 | Tennessee | 68.5% | Iowa | 31.5% | 6.8 |
| 1/1/24 | Michigan | 57.2% | Alabama | 42.8% | 2.5 |
| 1/1/24 | Texas | 64.1% | Washington | 35.9% | 5.1 |
