Movelor is live for 2023 (you can find its homepage here ), and with it, we have Week Zero picks. They’re published here as well, but that link will lead to Week One picks beginning early next week, and then Week Two picks the next week, and so on down the line. So, we’re publishing these as an archive, and we’ll publish the full Movelor ratings and probabilities below them. A few observations and thoughts, with plenty more about Movelor and about the games themselves coming later today and tomorrow:
I haven’t seen any FCS lines yet, but excluding those three games, our big disagreements with betting markets come in UTEP @ Jacksonville State (we have Jax State –8, they have UTEP –1) and UMass @ New Mexico State (we have NMSU –20, they have NMSU –7). Everything else is within one possession.
It’s possible the market is high on SJSU, or that it thinks Lincoln Riley will take his foot off the gas, but I’m surprised we aren’t further from bettors on USC. Movelor has them 22nd in the country, and Movelor has the 6th -best team (the team corresponding to USC’s AP Poll ranking) more than 13 points better than the Trojans. Yet Movelor and betting markets are only six points apart on this spread.
Navy remains a strange one to predict. I would guess markets are all over the place on them.
Jackson State is intriguing entering the post-Deion era. Movelor still really likes their recruiting base from 2021 and 2022, and while 2023 recruiting was also strong for them relative to the rest of the FCS, Movelor does not know about outward transfers.
In terms of competitive value, it appears the SDSU/Ohio game is the best of the week. Even better (I know, this is shocking) than Fordham/Albany.
We will publish some sort of college football bets tomorrow and/or Saturday. These are not them.
Picks, ratings:
Favorite Win Probability Underdog Win Probability Predicted Margin Notre Dame 86.9% Navy 13.1% 16.7 Jacksonville State 71.6% UTEP 28.4% 8.2 San Diego State 50.5% Ohio 49.5% 0.2 New Mexico State 90.7% UMass 9.3% 20.0 Vanderbilt 80.0% Hawaii 20.0% 12.2 USC 94.2% San Jose State 5.8% 24.5 Louisiana Tech 86.3% FIU 13.7% 16.2 Mercer 91.8% North Alabama 8.2% 21.3 Fordham 54.6% Albany 45.4% 1.6 Jackson State 93.5% South Carolina State 6.5% 23.6
Rank Team Movelor Conference Projected Wins Division Title Conference Championship Make Playoff National Championship 1 Georgia 47.5 SEC 11.8 74.7% 49.0% 65.8% 27.8% 2 Ohio State 42.8 Big Ten 10.5 39.8% 31.0% 41.6% 12.1% 3 Alabama 42.3 SEC 10.8 64.2% 28.3% 42.5% 13.2% 4 Michigan 41.7 Big Ten 10.5 33.9% 26.9% 38.3% 11.4% 5 Tennessee 39.2 SEC 10.1 22.7% 13.6% 24.7% 6.9% 6 Penn State 38.9 Big Ten 10.0 24.0% 17.9% 25.8% 6.2% 7 Utah 34.5 Pac-12 9.9 0.0% 31.2% 18.5% 3.2% 8 TCU 31.5 Big 12 9.1 0.0% 18.9% 10.3% 1.5% 9 LSU 31.1 SEC 8.7 20.3% 5.3% 7.2% 1.4% 10 Kansas State 30.6 Big 12 8.9 0.0% 18.2% 7.7% 1.1% 11 Clemson 30.4 ACC 9.6 0.0% 26.0% 14.0% 1.7% 12 Texas 30.3 Big 12 8.2 0.0% 16.7% 6.2% 1.0% 13 Oregon State 29.9 Pac-12 9.5 0.0% 18.7% 9.1% 1.2% 14 Florida State 29.7 ACC 9.3 0.0% 22.2% 11.1% 1.6% 15 Notre Dame 29.7 FBS Independents 8.4 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 1.0% 16 Iowa 29.6 Big Ten 8.8 35.9% 8.7% 5.0% 0.8% 17 Oregon 28.6 Pac-12 8.8 0.0% 14.9% 6.8% 1.0% 18 Texas Tech 28.6 Big 12 8.4 0.0% 13.8% 5.1% 0.7% 19 Minnesota 28.4 Big Ten 7.6 17.3% 4.7% 3.1% 0.5% 20 Washington 28.3 Pac-12 8.6 0.0% 14.3% 6.3% 0.8% 21 Louisville 26.8 ACC 9.5 0.0% 20.9% 7.6% 0.7% 22 USC 26.6 Pac-12 8.7 0.0% 13.2% 5.1% 0.6% 23 Oklahoma 26.5 Big 12 8.4 0.0% 11.3% 4.0% 0.5% 24 Illinois 26.3 Big Ten 7.8 19.3% 4.3% 2.1% 0.4% 25 Tulane 25.8 American 10.2 0.0% 36.7% 1.4% 0.2% 26 Wisconsin 25.0 Big Ten 7.7 18.7% 3.7% 1.7% 0.3% 27 Fresno State 24.5 Mountain West 10.5 0.0% 40.5% 0.9% 0.2% 28 Pitt 23.7 ACC 7.7 0.0% 10.1% 2.6% 0.3% 29 Baylor 23.5 Big 12 7.0 0.0% 5.2% 1.3% 0.1% 30 Air Force 23.3 Mountain West 10.4 0.0% 34.4% 1.3% 0.2% 31 Mississippi 22.9 SEC 6.6 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 32 Arkansas 22.8 SEC 7.3 4.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 33 Mississippi State 22.8 SEC 7.0 4.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 34 Maryland 22.5 Big Ten 7.1 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 35 Kentucky 22.4 SEC 6.6 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 36 Wake Forest 21.6 ACC 7.4 0.0% 5.6% 1.5% 0.1% 37 Texas A&M 21.5 SEC 6.6 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 38 South Carolina 21.4 SEC 6.3 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 39 UCLA 21.4 Pac-12 7.9 0.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.1% 40 Oklahoma State 21.4 Big 12 7.5 0.0% 5.6% 1.1% 0.1% 41 Michigan State 21.0 Big Ten 5.7 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 42 Florida 20.9 SEC 5.6 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 43 James Madison 20.7 Sun Belt 9.5 39.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44 Auburn 19.9 SEC 6.3 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 45 Iowa State 19.8 Big 12 5.4 0.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 46 Nebraska 19.7 Big Ten 6.4 4.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 47 Purdue 19.6 Big Ten 5.3 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 48 North Carolina 19.2 ACC 7.0 0.0% 4.1% 0.7% 0.1% 49 Duke 19.0 ACC 6.4 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.1% 50 Washington State 18.9 Pac-12 7.1 0.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 51 West Virginia 18.7 Big 12 5.3 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 52 Boise State 18.5 Mountain West 7.9 0.0% 15.3% 0.2% 0.0% 53 Memphis 18.4 American 8.8 0.0% 16.2% 0.1% 0.0% 54 NC State 18.3 ACC 6.9 0.0% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% 55 Troy 18.0 Sun Belt 8.3 43.3% 31.7% 0.2% 0.0% 56 Cincinnati 17.9 Big 12 6.4 0.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 57 BYU 17.7 Big 12 5.6 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 58 UTSA 16.9 American 7.8 0.0% 12.6% 0.1% 0.0% 59 East Carolina 16.6 American 7.5 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 60 Syracuse 16.3 ACC 6.4 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 61 SMU 16.3 American 8.0 0.0% 11.4% 0.1% 0.0% 62 Missouri 16.1 SEC 5.0 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 63 Western Kentucky 16.1 Conference USA 9.5 0.0% 57.6% 0.1% 0.0% 64 Army 15.1 FBS Independents 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65 UCF 14.8 Big 12 5.2 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 66 Houston 14.7 Big 12 5.0 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 67 Kansas 14.4 Big 12 4.8 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 68 Marshall 13.2 Sun Belt 7.3 19.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 69 Navy 13.0 American 6.4 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 70 Louisiana 12.5 Sun Belt 7.8 26.4% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 71 Arizona 12.4 Pac-12 5.2 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 72 California 11.8 Pac-12 4.2 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 73 Ohio 11.7 MAC 8.6 50.6% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0% 74 Georgia State 11.6 Sun Belt 6.8 11.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 75 Miami (FL) 11.2 ACC 5.6 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 76 Arizona State 11.0 Pac-12 4.5 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 77 South Alabama 10.4 Sun Belt 6.3 13.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 78 Appalachian State 10.3 Sun Belt 6.6 13.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 79 Toledo 10.0 MAC 8.1 32.5% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 80 UAB 9.7 American 5.8 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 81 Virginia 9.4 ACC 4.4 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 82 Indiana 9.1 Big Ten 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83 San Diego State 8.9 Mountain West 5.8 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 84 Virginia Tech 8.8 ACC 4.3 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 85 Liberty 8.5 Conference USA 8.7 0.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86 Wyoming 8.4 Mountain West 5.9 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 87 Tulsa 8.1 American 6.1 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 88 Georgia Tech 7.7 ACC 4.4 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 89 Eastern Michigan 7.7 MAC 7.4 23.9% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 90 Southern Miss 7.5 Sun Belt 5.7 12.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 91 Northwestern 7.1 Big Ten 3.5 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92 North Texas 7.0 American 5.9 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 93 Vanderbilt 7.0 SEC 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94 Coastal Carolina 5.8 Sun Belt 5.7 7.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 95 Georgia Southern 5.7 Sun Belt 5.8 6.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 96 Rutgers 5.6 Big Ten 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97 Stanford 5.5 Pac-12 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98 Western Michigan 5.4 MAC 5.4 13.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 99 San Jose State 5.1 Mountain West 4.9 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100 Buffalo 5.0 MAC 6.0 16.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 101 Jacksonville State 4.8 Conference USA 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 102 Middle Tennessee 4.7 Conference USA 6.6 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 103 Miami (OH) 4.7 MAC 6.6 14.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 104 Ball State 4.4 MAC 5.8 15.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 105 Utah State 4.3 Mountain West 5.0 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 106 Florida Atlantic 4.2 American 4.7 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 107 Central Michigan 3.7 MAC 5.0 10.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 108 Kent State 3.4 MAC 5.5 13.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 109 Boston College 3.2 ACC 4.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 110 Colorado State 3.0 Mountain West 5.3 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 111 Old Dominion 2.1 Sun Belt 4.2 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 112 USF 1.4 American 4.7 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 113 UNLV 1.3 Mountain West 5.2 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 114 Temple 0.3 American 4.4 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 115 New Mexico State 0.1 Conference USA 7.1 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 116 UTEP -0.4 Conference USA 5.0 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 117 UConn -0.6 FBS Independents 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 118 Northern Illinois -1.2 MAC 4.1 4.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 119 Nevada -1.6 Mountain West 4.2 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 120 Hawaii -2.2 Mountain West 4.7 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 121 Louisiana Monroe -2.7 Sun Belt 3.6 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 122 Arkansas State -4.0 Sun Belt 3.9 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 123 Texas State -4.2 Sun Belt 3.3 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 124 Sam Houston -4.4 Conference USA 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 125 Rice -4.4 American 3.3 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 126 Bowling Green State -5.1 MAC 3.5 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 127 Colorado -5.2 Pac-12 1.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 128 Louisiana Tech -6.1 Conference USA 4.0 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 129 Akron -6.8 MAC 3.5 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 130 Charlotte -8.4 American 2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 131 New Mexico -10.9 Mountain West 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 132 UMass -16.9 FBS Independents 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 133 FIU -19.4 Conference USA 1.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rank Team Movelor Conference Projected Wins Conference Championship 1 South Dakota State 24.9 MVFC 10.0 64.1% 2 Incarnate Word 16.5 Southland 10.6 87.0% 3 Montana State 14.5 Big Sky 8.2 18.0% 4 North Dakota State 14.4 MVFC 8.7 15.1% 5 Sacramento State 13.3 Big Sky 8.6 18.1% 6 UC Davis 11.9 Big Sky 8.3 23.3% 7 Montana 10.5 Big Sky 8.5 12.7% 8 Weber State 9.8 Big Sky 7.7 20.9% 9 Northern Iowa 9.2 MVFC 6.9 7.7% 10 Furman 7.3 Southern 8.3 38.0% 11 Richmond 5.4 CAA 8.4 26.8% 12 Idaho 4.9 Big Sky 6.9 6.4% 13 North Dakota 4.0 MVFC 6.8 3.3% 14 Samford 3.9 Southern 7.9 27.8% 15 William & Mary 3.2 CAA 8.2 23.6% 16 Mercer 2.4 Southern 7.7 20.8% 17 Austin Peay 2.1 UAC 7.6 40.1% 18 Holy Cross 2.0 Patriot 8.2 64.5% 19 Southern Illinois 1.9 MVFC 6.2 3.3% 20 Southeast Missouri State 1.6 Big South-OVC 7.9 45.0% 21 Missouri State 1.5 MVFC 5.8 1.9% 22 Youngstown State 1.5 MVFC 6.5 3.1% 23 Southeastern Louisiana 1.3 Southland 7.6 11.9% 24 Rhode Island -1.9 CAA 7.1 11.2% 25 Yale -2.1 Ivy 7.4 31.2% 26 Chattanooga -3.1 Southern 6.3 8.2% 27 Jackson State -3.1 SWAC 9.9 56.0% 28 Princeton -3.5 Ivy 7.2 25.5% 29 Elon -3.5 CAA 6.0 7.1% 30 South Dakota -4.3 MVFC 5.3 0.8% 31 Central Arkansas -4.7 UAC 5.9 17.2% 32 New Hampshire -4.7 CAA 6.8 8.4% 33 Delaware -4.8 CAA 6.8 11.2% 34 Illinois State -5.4 MVFC 6.1 0.6% 35 Gardner-Webb -5.9 Big South-OVC 6.1 23.2% 36 Fordham -6.9 Patriot 8.1 29.9% 37 Saint Francis (PA) -8.1 NEC 7.4 59.7% 38 Eastern Washington -8.1 Big Sky 3.7 0.3% 39 Dartmouth -8.2 Ivy 5.9 13.3% 40 Harvard -8.3 Ivy 5.6 12.2% 41 UT Martin -8.4 Big South-OVC 6.0 13.5% 42 Western Carolina -8.5 Southern 5.0 3.3% 43 Abilene Christian -8.6 UAC 5.3 11.1% 44 Northern Arizona -8.6 Big Sky 3.3 0.1% 45 Maine -9.0 CAA 5.4 1.8% 46 Eastern Kentucky -9.2 UAC 4.4 9.6% 47 Penn -9.4 Ivy 6.3 10.0% 48 Stephen F. Austin -9.6 UAC 5.8 8.9% 49 North Carolina Central -9.7 MEAC 7.5 53.5% 50 Villanova -9.9 CAA 5.4 2.9% 51 Florida A&M -10.1 SWAC 8.2 17.5% 52 St. Thomas -10.4 Pioneer 8.2 41.1% 53 Columbia -10.6 Ivy 6.0 6.4% 54 Towson -10.7 CAA 5.1 1.6% 55 Kennesaw State -11.0 FCS Independents 5.6 0.0% 56 Albany -11.6 CAA 4.8 2.1% 57 Southern Utah -11.7 UAC 4.4 5.4% 58 Portland State -12.4 Big Sky 4.2 0.1% 59 Monmouth -12.5 CAA 5.2 1.3% 60 Campbell -12.7 CAA 3.9 0.8% 61 North Carolina A&T -12.7 CAA 4.4 1.0% 62 East Tennessee State -12.8 Southern 4.2 0.9% 63 Bryant -13.1 Big South-OVC 5.6 8.6% 64 Indiana State -13.2 MVFC 3.6 0.2% 65 Utah Tech -14.1 UAC 3.0 3.9% 66 Wofford -15.7 Southern 3.5 0.6% 67 Tarleton -16.1 UAC 4.7 2.8% 68 The Citadel -16.2 Southern 3.7 0.5% 69 Howard -16.4 MEAC 6.1 28.7% 70 Southern -17.9 SWAC 7.2 10.6% 71 Tennessee Tech -18.2 Big South-OVC 4.4 2.9% 72 Lindenwood -18.2 Big South-OVC 4.4 2.2% 73 Dayton -18.3 Pioneer 7.3 16.1% 74 Charleston Southern -18.7 Big South-OVC 4.4 2.9% 75 Cornell -18.7 Ivy 4.1 1.1% 76 North Alabama -18.9 UAC 2.7 1.1% 77 Stony Brook -19.0 CAA 2.8 0.1% 78 McNeese -19.7 Southland 5.0 0.6% 79 Merrimack -19.7 NEC 6.3 12.2% 80 Western Illinois -19.8 MVFC 1.9 0.0% 81 Northern Colorado -20.0 Big Sky 1.9 0.0% 82 Hampton -20.2 CAA 3.7 0.1% 83 Duquesne -20.3 NEC 5.2 11.9% 84 Cal Poly -20.5 Big Sky 2.7 0.0% 85 San Diego -21.0 Pioneer 6.5 13.5% 86 Alcorn State -21.2 SWAC 5.3 5.4% 87 Prairie View A&M -21.4 SWAC 5.5 4.5% 88 Davidson -21.6 Pioneer 7.5 13.3% 89 Tennessee State -22.2 Big South-OVC 4.7 1.1% 90 Northwestern State -22.7 Southland 3.9 0.1% 91 Nicholls -23.1 Southland 3.1 0.2% 92 Texas Southern -23.1 SWAC 4.6 2.5% 93 Brown -23.1 Ivy 2.3 0.4% 94 Colgate -23.5 Patriot 3.6 2.1% 95 Idaho State -23.5 Big Sky 1.1 0.0% 96 Texas A&M-Commerce -23.7 Southland 3.0 0.1% 97 Butler -23.8 Pioneer 6.2 5.8% 98 VMI -23.9 Southern 2.4 0.0% 99 Lafayette -24.2 Patriot 3.6 1.4% 100 Lehigh -24.4 Patriot 3.7 1.7% 101 Sacred Heart -24.8 NEC 4.8 5.3% 102 Alabama A&M -25.3 SWAC 5.3 1.3% 103 Murray State -25.4 MVFC 1.6 0.0% 104 Morgan State -25.4 MEAC 3.2 6.7% 105 Eastern Illinois -25.9 Big South-OVC 3.0 0.6% 106 Central Connecticut State -26.1 NEC 5.0 4.4% 107 LIU -26.4 NEC 3.5 4.0% 108 Drake -26.5 Pioneer 5.1 5.1% 109 South Carolina State -26.7 MEAC 3.6 4.8% 110 Alabama State -27.1 SWAC 5.0 0.4% 111 Stonehill -28.6 NEC 3.4 2.4% 112 Delaware State -28.7 MEAC 3.8 4.5% 113 Valparaiso -29.0 Pioneer 4.8 1.7% 114 Lamar -29.2 Southland 2.9 0.0% 115 Stetson -30.1 Pioneer 4.9 2.6% 116 Bethune-Cookman -30.1 SWAC 3.4 0.2% 117 Grambling State -30.4 SWAC 4.0 0.9% 118 Bucknell -30.4 Patriot 2.9 0.2% 119 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -31.2 SWAC 3.4 0.5% 120 Norfolk State -31.7 MEAC 2.8 1.8% 121 Georgetown -33.0 Patriot 3.0 0.2% 122 Morehead State -33.6 Pioneer 3.3 0.5% 123 Mississippi Valley State -33.8 SWAC 3.1 0.1% 124 Marist -34.0 Pioneer 3.6 0.4% 125 Robert Morris -34.6 Big South-OVC 1.8 0.0% 126 Houston Christian -35.3 Southland 2.1 0.0% 127 Wagner -42.3 NEC 1.3 0.1% 128 Presbyterian -47.8 Pioneer 1.3 0.0%
