Yes, many of these games are underway as this is posted.
But that’s why you need to know what’s going on!!!
35 big games today as we hunt our 32 NIT teams, plus 10 deep cuts for fans on the Lower Bubble:
Play-In Games (4)
- 11:00 AM EST: Toledo vs. Miami Ohio (ESPN+)
- 11:30 AM EST: VCU vs. Davidson (USA)
- 3:00 PM EST: UC Irvine vs. Cal State Bakersfield (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EST: Utah Valley vs. Tarleton (ESPN+)
Four teams could clinch automatic bids today. Toledo, VCU, UC Irvine, and Utah Valley.
We’re at a point where the expected number of automatic bids is starting to recede. It hasn’t passed from 12 down to 11 yet, but if all four of these teams win their quarterfinal today, it might get there. If one loses? Not great for teams on the Lower Bubble.
2-Bid Dreaming (3)
- 3:00 PM EST: Sam Houston State vs. Cal Baptist (ESPN+)
- 4:00 PM EST: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (ESPN+)
- 5:00 PM EST: Dayton vs. Saint Joe’s (USA)
The WAC, MAC, and A-10 are all currently projected to get one NIT bid in our bracketology. That bid, for each, is an automatic bid. In each, though, a second team could join the regular season champion, which makes these a big deal for teams seeking an NIT home. NIT Bubbler fans, you would like Sam Houston State to take care of business, you would like Kent State to lose badly, and you would like Dayton to lose badly and get out of the picture. A zero-bid WAC isn’t looking possible, but a zero-bid MAC or A-10 could happen with the right wins and losses.
Fans of teams in the WAC, MAC, and A-10? Imagine the status you will claim if your league sends more teams to the NIT than the Big 12 does.
UNC, Wisconsin (11)
Full disclosure for new readers: We would really like UNC, Wisconsin, and Arizona State to make the NIT, for the sake of the NIT and for our own friends’ happiness (lot of UW friends). That is our focus here.
- 12:00 PM EST: Michigan vs. Rutgers (BTN)
- 2:30 PM EST: UConn vs. Providence (FS1)
- 2:30 PM EST: Duke vs. Pitt (ESPN2)
- 6:30 PM EST: FAU vs. Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
- 6:30 PM EST: Illinois vs. Penn State (BTN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Virginia vs. UNC (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Texas vs. Oklahoma State (ESPN2)
- 9:00 PM EST: North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: Clemson vs. NC State (ESPN)
- 11:30 PM EST: Utah State vs. New Mexico (CBSSN)
- 11:30 PM EST: USC vs. Arizona State (ESPN)
The situations, as we understand them here, are that…
Michigan, UNC, North Texas, Clemson, and New Mexico definitely would need wins to miss the NIT.
Rutgers, Pitt, and Utah State probably need wins to miss the NIT.
Providence, Penn State, NC State, and Oklahoma State might be safe from the NIT with losses, but they could sure use wins, if avoiding the NIT is their goal (it shouldn’t be).
All these teams want FAU to lose so there’s a bid thief so they can make the NIT, but they might want that to happen later so there isn’t a reverse bid thief where FAU steals an NIT bid from under their noses.
Dueling Bubbles (3)
- 1:00 PM EST: Florida vs. Mississippi State (SECN)
- 5:30 PM EST: Oregon vs. Washington State (P12N)
- 5:30 PM EST: Nevada vs. San Jose State (CBSSN)
Mississippi State and Nevada are also in that scrum above us, and Oregon is trying to avoid getting in there, but they each play a team conceivably on our Lower Bubble. Florida and Washington State still probably make the NIT with a loss, so long as it isn’t too ugly, but San Jose State needs to win.
Lower Bubble (11)
- 12:00 PM EST: Marquette vs. St. John’s (FS1)
- 12:00 PM EST: Miami vs. Wake Forest (ESPN2)
- 2:00 PM EST: Saint Louis vs. George Mason (USA)
- 2:30 PM EST: UCF vs. SMU (ESPNU)
- 3:00 PM EST: UCLA vs. Colorado (P12N)
- 3:00 PM EST: San Diego State vs. Colorado State (CBSSN)
- 7:30 PM EST: Fordham vs. La Salle (USA)
- 9:00 PM EST: Boise State vs. UNLV (CBSSN)
- 9:30 PM EST: Creighton vs. Villanova (FS1)
- 9:30 PM EST: UAB vs. Rice (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: Vanderbilt vs. LSU (SEC)
Ok, first, we think Villanova, UAB, and Vanderbilt are probably in the NIT even if they lose, but they aren’t safe enough for us to tune these out or put them in the Upper Bubble spot. Second, we think Boise State isn’t making the NIT, partially because this might count as a road game, since it’s in Las Vegas. Third, Colorado might be safe with a loss but they’re in no danger of missing the NIT on the high side, so they get the mention here.
Fourth:
St. John’s, Wake, SLU, UCF, Colorado State, and Fordham all need wins. The only one of those we could see making it with a loss is Wake, and we think they’d need a lot of help.
Upper Bubble Longshots (3)
- 2:30 PM EST: Iowa vs. Ohio State (BTN)
- 3:00 PM EST: Kansas vs. West Virginia (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Auburn vs. Arkansas (SECN)
We don’t really think Iowa, West Virginia, or Auburn (or Arkansas, I guess) has any sort of NIT hope, but they’ll at least get a look with the right brand of loss here.
Deep Cuts (10)
Not listing out the times or TV for these, in the interest of time, but by conference, fans of teams on the Lower Bubble want the following things:
In the AAC, they want Tulsa to beat Wichita State, eliminating any chance of Wichita State getting in the picture and giving Tulane less upside tomorrow.
In the Big West, they want Hawaii, UC Davis, and Cal Poly to win, making the path as easy as possible for UC Irvine to not get an NIT automatic bid.
In the MAAC, they want Niagara and Marist to win, making the path as easy as possible for Iona to not get an NIT automatic bid.
In the MAC, they want Buffalo to win, eliminating any chance of Akron getting in the picture and raising the possibility of Kent State missing the NIT in one direction or the other, thereby lowering the risk of a 2-bid MAC. You want MAC volatility, Lower Bubble fans.
In the MEAC, they want Morgan State and Coppin State to win, making the path as easy as possible for Howard to avoid an NIT automatic bid. (We view Norfolk State and NCCU as comparably difficult opponents for Howard.)
And in the WAC, they want Utah Tech to win, making the path as easy as possible for Utah Valley to meet Sam Houston State in the conference championship, thereby making the WAC only a one-bid league.
