There’s a big gap between Mizzou’s résumé and how good we think they are. They’re 7th in KPI right now. They’re 8th in SOR. They’re 34th in KenPom. All of that is after last night’s loss.
The question for Mizzou is whether they’ll do enough the rest of the way to backdoor their way into the NIT. They certainly have chances: They play Mississippi, Georgia, and South Carolina—none of whom are NIT-projecting right now—on the road. They play Mississippi, Kentucky, TCU, and Texas A&M—again, none of whom are NIT-projecting—at home. They might have two more SEC games added. The expectation is that in those seven games they go 4-3 or 5-2. That expectation has them landing something like six or seven seed lines too high. There’s room for growth (a home loss to TCU would drop their projection what, four seed lines?), but there’s not a ton of it.
Which brings us to the next question for Mizzou.
Have they done too much?
The Oregon win was sneaky. It came over a not-the-best version of a not-great Oregon team. The Wichita State win was sneaky. Wichita State started playing a lot better shortly after the game. The Liberty and Bradley wins were sneaky—those are résumé-builders from the bottom. The Illinois win wasn’t sneaky, but at that point, Mizzou was on a tear, addicted to winning basketball games that don’t help teams like Missouri make the NIT. Now, it might be too late.
And yet, they remain a sleeper.
Because the rest of that schedule sure is fertile for bad losses from a just-decent team.
And that’s what Missouri is.
Other notes for today:
- Duke didn’t beat Georgia Tech by much, which should be enough for both of them to roughly hold their positions.
- Memphis beat SMU, keeping their chin above the bar (and probably boosting the confidence a bit).
- Dayton took down returning-to-action Saint Louis, throwing the A-10 race into a bit of chaos. There are seven teams over there with legitimate NIT hopes. One of them is now the Billikens.
- We mentioned Tulsa’s loss yesterday, but we’ll mention it again: Not a good move.
- Clemson probably won’t crack the field just by losing to Louisville tonight, but you never know.
- Seton Hall and Maryland’s hopes aren’t looking great, but they could really get hurt in the next twelve hours: Creighton visits South Orange (technically, Newark). Wisconsin goes to College Park.
- Big opportunity for both Mississippi and Arkansas, with the former visiting the latter. Can they do a pincer maneuver? Is a pincer maneuver a thing?
- Virginia Tech’s got a chance to make a statement, visiting a Notre Dame team incapable of playing defense. Miss shots against those guys and you can do it against anyone.
- Marquette tries to #WinOneTheyShouldnt at Providence, which is something they need to do. Providence could probably go either way on this one.
- Utah State tries again at UNLV. A sweep would really be a disaster, but would also be kind of funny.
- Boise State tries to get back in it from the top, visiting Colorado State, who can probably get away with a win but we aren’t too sure about that.
- Penn State plays at Ohio State. Risk.
