The University of Mississippi is not very good at football. Its teams have an all-time record of 702–546–35, or about a 7-win season, on average, against a 12 or 13-game schedule like today’s. Its three national championships are far in the past and were all disputed, with the AP and Coaches’ Polls never naming the Rebels their best team in the country. Its conference championships are similarly sparse and distant, with the 2080s closer to today than Mississippi’s last SEC title. The Manning family ties, plus the quintessential Southern-ness of Oxford and the school, sometimes obscure just how little a factor Ole Miss has been in the history of college football. Between Archie and Eli, the best seasons any Manning had under center each included three losses.
There was an air of history last weekend for the Missouri Tigers. For Georgia, it was just another game, but for Mizzou, the showdown in Athens offered an opportunity to become something more than what Mizzou is and has been. Mizzou had a chance last weekend to become an SEC football school, one who plays in national spaces. The situation isn’t all that different this Saturday for Lane Kiffin’s Mississippi. This Saturday, Mississippi has a chance to stop being an also-ran. Mississippi has a chance to get to 9–1, to put themselves one buy game from 10–1 and one Egg Bowl from 11–1, a record which would not only lock the Rebels into a New Year’s Six bowl and mark the most games the team’s ever won in a season, but also keep alive a dark horse playoff path for one of the SEC’s most medium programs.
Lane Kiffin currently ranks eighth all-time in win percentage among Mississippi head coaches. If you take away those who coached fewer games than he has, he ranks second only to the great Johnny Vaught. Lane Kiffin has won more frequently than Hugh Freeze did, and he’s likely doing it in a more sustainable way. Lane Kiffin’s place in Ole Miss history is growing by the day. Saturday, Lane Kiffin and his men have the chance to pour gas on that fire. The odds are long. But that’s usually how it works when there’s a chance to make history.
The Big Ones
The two big ones:
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Michigan @ Penn State (FOX)
Michigan would be the story this week in college football even if they weren’t in the midst of a scintillating sign-stealing scandal. Their closest game of the season so far was a 24-point win over Rutgers. Every other opponent has lost by four possessions or more. Both Movelor and ESPN’s SP+ call Michigan the best team in the country, and FPI has the Wolverines second by only a fraction of a point to Ohio State. Still, we don’t quite know what we’re getting from this Jim Harbaugh team.
It’s a feat in college football to make winning look easy. Few teams do it. Georgia is currently equipped with one of the most talented rosters to ever take a college football field, and winning has not looked particularly easy for Georgia. What Michigan’s doing is impressive. But it is very difficult to measure an elephant with rulers.
Going back to Movelor, SP+, and FPI, Michigan has yet to play any of the 40 best teams in the country. Going back to Movelor, SP+, and FPI, Michigan is about to play a team whose worst ranking still leaves them fifth-best nationally. Penn State has not been quite as dominant as Michigan—that’s why they’re an underdog in this one, even in Happy Valley—but Penn State is nonetheless dominant, with six of their eight wins coming by 23 or more and their only loss coming, in the end, by a single possession on the road against the number one team in the country. Penn State didn’t muster a touchdown until the final minute in their visit to Columbus, but they’ve steamrolled similar competition to what Michigan has steamrolled, and occasionally better competition, considering the pounding they gave Iowa back in September. Penn State is stuck on the doorstep of college football’s elite room. Michigan was stuck there for a long time too. Win, and as for Mississippi, the door opens. Win, and the Nittany Lions have a viable path to a Big Ten title, and possibly a playoff berth even if they don’t get the tie and tiebreak they need. Losing is likelier, but Penn State can win this game.
On the individual level, this game is a big deal for JJ McCarthy’s Heisman chances. Again, it’s not easy to always look good against bad competition—Michael Penix Jr. played Arizona State and did not meet this threshold—but what McCarthy will face in Penn State’s defense is beyond anything he’s seen this year, and possibly better than any defense he’s met in his entire time on Earth. It’s the first leg of a two-game season (three, if you count the Big Ten Championship, but that’s likely to be a formality). Michigan is looking to impress a committee. McCarthy is looking to impress some voters.
Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Mississippi @ Georgia (ESPN)
Down South, it says quite a bit that Georgia is only favored by ten points at home, because while Mississippi is accomplished, they aren’t a great team. They’re on the fringe of the top ten, at best, and while that’s something to be proud of, what we’re seeing from the famously accurate betting lines is that those who know these matchups with precision have lost their confidence in the Dawgs. Yes, Georgia will probably win. But Georgia is capable of obliterating this Mississippi team, just as they’ve been capable of obliterating South Carolina and Auburn and Mizzou. Georgia can play like they’ve been playing and continue to survive, but it’s going to get harder from here, with Tennessee on deck in Knoxville and Alabama lurking in the dugout. Georgia has underperformed to the degree that if they finish 12–1 and don’t beat Alabama, they could realistically be left out of the playoff in favor of another one-loss team. That would have been unthinkable in August.
The Good Ones
Seven more good games:
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Alabama @ Kentucky (ESPN)
Letdown games have been a theme this last month, and that’s what Alabama needs to avoid as they head to Lexington. The Tide are playing better these days, but so are the Cats, and the echoes of those early-season struggles in Tuscaloosa aren’t distant enough to be written off. The job’s not done for Nick Saban’s team, and it’s not only the Iron Bowl and the SEC Championship they need to worry about.
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Utah @ Washington (FOX)
We’ve been waiting on a Washington disaster for a few weeks now, and it seems the committee is waiting as well. The narrow escapes from ASU and Stanford undid any belief Washington generated with its 6–0 start, and USC is reeling enough that the classic last weekend didn’t clean the slate. Utah has made a living in recent years off of not being consistent enough to do anything of national note themselves while simultaneously being good enough and nasty enough to mess things up for the rest of the Pac-12. This is a chance for Utah to do its thing on the road, and that makes it another opportunity for the Huskies to prove themselves.
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Tennessee @ Missouri (CBS)
Tennessee will enter this game with the narrowest SEC Championship path, but an SEC Championship path nonetheless. If Tennessee wins and Georgia falls to Mississippi, the UGA–Tennessee game will be a de facto SEC East title game, so long as Tennessee doesn’t go on to lose to Vanderbilt. So, Tennessee has a whole lot to play for. Missouri? Not quite as much, but there’s a potential Cotton Bowl trip (or something of that stature) and a 10-win season and pride and belonging and all the rest on the line. Two good teams, playing a good game.
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Oklahoma State @ UCF (ESPN)
Oklahoma State has put itself in great position to make the Big 12 Championship, but they can only afford to lose one more time, and this is not the only dangerous game awaiting the Pokes. Letdown games are one thing when you hold on and win. They’re another when you don’t.
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Rutgers @ Iowa (BTN)
Iowa is still one step ahead of the tie in the Big Ten West, and they’re looking to stay there at home against a Rutgers team that’s either taken a massive step forward and can now hang with Ohio State or nearly pulled off the greatest upset of all time, depending who you ask about the Scarlet Knights’ 19-point defeat to the top-ranked team nobody will call the best in the country.
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Texas @ TCU (ABC)
It broke minutes ago that Quinn Ewers is going to start this game for Texas, which flips the question from whether Texas can survive another Maalik Murphy start to whether Quinn Ewers is 100% and what that means for the Longhorns.
TCU isn’t bad. They aren’t good, but they aren’t outright bad. This is dangerous for Texas, and the psychological danger is thinking they’re in the clear or looking ahead to the game in Ames or the Friday game against Texas Tech. Texas and Washington might be the likeliest sources of chaos and clarity this weekend.
Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT: USC @ Oregon (FOX)
Alex Grinch is gone, but we would imagine USC’s defensive woes won’t immediately dissipate. Oregon has rolled Utah and Cal these last two weeks, but the job, as with Alabama, is far from finished. On the Heisman front: Bo Nix could use a victory in a Caleb Williams duel.
The Important Ones
Dormant volcanoes:
- Thursday, 7:30 PM EDT: Virginia @ Louisville (ESPN)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Miami @ Florida State (ABC)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Michigan State @ Ohio State (NBC)
I don’t believe Louisville could clinch an ACC Championship spot as soon as tonight, but that’s not the primary concern for the Cardinals anyway. They have a shot at being a one-loss Power Five champion, and that often comes with a playoff berth. Florida State and Ohio State face a pair of struggling rivals, trying to pad stats and not make anything interesting.
The Group of Five National Championship race:
- Friday, 9:00 PM EDT: North Texas @ SMU (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: Old Dominion @ Liberty (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: UConn @ James Madison (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: Troy @ Louisiana Monroe (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT: Fresno State @ San Jose State (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 11:00 PM EDT: Air Force @ Hawaii (The Team1 Sports app on your phone, no this is not a joke)
Unless James Madison is granted that bowl exemption from the NCAA, we don’t have a Cinderella candidate from the Group of Five right now, and even JMU—whose lone power conference win came by one point over Virginia—more fits the bill of a team thrilled to make a New Year’s Six Bowl than one really knocking on the playoff door. Still, in the race for that spot, we have six legitimate contenders. Seven if you count JMU.
SMU has taken over the place of favorite in the AAC, but they have two losses (OU, TCU) to Tulane’s one (Mississippi), holding them back in the rankings. They’re also not yet 50% likely to win the AAC. It’s a tight race. Both the Mustangs and Green Wave are big favorites, but neither is especially safe.
Liberty continues its undefeated quest, which includes a challenge to win by as many points as possible. You would think the committee would rank a 13–0 team regardless of that team’s conference. Liberty’s four wins away.
Troy might be the best Group of Five team, rated by Movelor as better right now than JMU despite the head to head loss. This is an easier one for the Trojans, but that makes it a chance to impress.
In the late-night action, the Mountain West continues to give us good ones, with Fresno State actually a narrow underdog in San Jose. Air Force—who really made this interesting with that Army loss—goes to Hawaii, and good luck watching that game but it’s an important one for the Falcons, who remain at the front of the Mountain West title hunt.
The Interesting Ones
A real smorgasbord here:
- Friday, 10:45 PM EDT: Wyoming @ UNLV (FS1)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Texas Tech @ Kansas (FS1)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: Arizona @ Colorado (P12N)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: Auburn @ Arkansas (SECN)
- Saturday, 5:30 PM EDT: Stanford @ Oregon State (P12N)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EDT: Duke @ North Carolina (ACCN)
Wyoming and UNLV are having great seasons by their standards, and late-night Wyoming is always fun. Kansas is trying to keep climbing up the rankings and preserve some shot at a Big 12 title game spot if massive chaos erupts. Arizona is in a similar position in the Pac-12, and gets a Colorado team who’s lost the plot. NMSU and WKU play for most likely a spot in the Conference USA championship against Liberty. Arkansas sits at 3–6, trying to pull off an improbable bowl-eligibility comeback while Auburn tries to get to bowl-eligible in Hugh Freeze’s first year. Oregon State has a tiny playoff shot that’s mostly contingent on all sorts of other teams losing but would not be hurt by blowing out Stanford. UNC gets banged-up Duke, trying to keep their sliver of an ACC Championship chance alive.
The FCS
There are only two weeks left in the FCS regular season, and that makes two things relevant: Conference championships and playoff jockeying in the power leagues.
In the MVFC:
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: South Dakota State @ Youngstown State (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: North Dakota @ South Dakota (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Southern Illinois @ North Dakota State (ESPN+)
I’m not as up to date on the FCS playoff picture as I’d like to be (we never did add FCS Bracketology to the model this year), but generally, you can get in as a really good 6–5 team, a solid 7–4 team, or an 8–3 team who doesn’t play in one of the weaker conferences. With South Dakota at seven wins and all of Youngstown State, North Dakota, SIU, and NDSU at six, that creates some high leverage this weekend, especially with NDSU going to the UNI-Dome next week while North Dakota hosts Illinois State. South Dakota State looks to keep rolling—they’re chasing one of the most dominant seasons in FCS history—but the others are just trying to extend their seasons into December.
Other real big ones:
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Holy Cross @ Army (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 12:30 PM EDT: Fordham @ Lafayette (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: Elon @ Richmond (Flo)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EDT: Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin (ESPN+)
The Patriot League has become an interesting beast, with Lafayette nearly clinching it with a win and preseason favorite Holy Cross in desperate need of either a Lafayette loss, an upset of FBS Army, or both. In the CAA, Richmond and Elon are two of five teams sitting at 5–1 in conference play. Elon, though, is 5–4 overall, making winning this a necessity in both the automatic and at-large paths to the playoffs. In the Big South–OVC, SEMO and UT Martin play part of the de facto conference championship, with Gardner-Webb the other team seriously in the mix.
In the Ivy League and MEAC (the SWAC is static until further notice):
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Yale @ Princeton (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EDT: Penn @ Harvard (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: North Carolina Central @ Howard (ESPNU)
The Ivy League remains dramatically close, with Harvard 4–1 in conference play and all of Dartmouth, Penn, Yale, and Princeton 3–2. Harvard still has a chance to win this league outright, and depending how other games go, Harvard–Yale next week could stand in as the Ivy League Championship. In the MEAC, NC Central could clinch the league’s championship and Celebration Bowl berth with a win up at Howard, while Howard could upend the whole situation with the upset, putting themselves in the conference’s driver’s seat and inserting NC Central into the FCS playoff mix.
