Saw a lot of teams in the NIT picture lose last night. They don’t call it the NLT, folks. That’s a bible!
Here’s this morning’s NIT Bracketology. And here’s the NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Drake, Indiana, Toledo, Duke
Drake did nothing, but they got bumped out of the bid thieved spot. Indiana lost to Michigan State. Toledo lost to one of the directional Michigans (sorry, I should remember which one). Duke lost to Georgia Tech. Two understandable losses. One loss to one of the directional Michigans. (They aren’t that bad! Just, you know, gotta beat ‘em to make the NIT). The long and short is that Indiana and Duke need to play their way back up whereas Toledo’s probably toast, since they’ll also have to lose in the MAC Tournament.
Moving In: Boise State, Mississippi, Stanford, North Texas
Boise State.
Bravo!
A few weeks ago (maybe even more recently), Joe wrote that Boise State was nearly a lock to miss the NIT. To make it, he said, they’d probably need to lose to San Diego State twice and drop one more.
Well, they did it. And with last night’s home defeat at the hands of Fresno State, the Broncos are back in our part of the world. What a joyous night it was.
Mississippi got a necessary win over Kentucky. If the (redacted)s can just hold serve now, they’re in. But that’s easier said than done.
Stanford and North Texas move in on the movements of others.
Teams Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Winthrop is 77.1% likely to win the Big South Tournament, something that makes our model say, “No NIT for you!” If our model didn’t say that, they’d slot in between Minnesota and Louisiana Tech.
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
Richmond
Duke
Indiana
Marshall
Toledo
Navy
St. John’s
Providence
Belmont
Kentucky
Georgia
Marquette
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
Drake
Wichita State
SMU
Xavier
Colorado State
Colgate*
Rutgers
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
UConn
St. Bonaventure
UCLA
*Colgate is more than 50% likely to win Patriot League Tournament, so you should probably just hope for them to take care of business there if you don’t want them to make the NIT.
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Today’s other notes:
- If we don’t end up getting Josh Pastner, we understand. That tournament can give him something we can’t, which is job security.
- Xavier lost to Georgetown, narrowing the gap between themselves and the field. Deep breaths, guys. You’re almost there.
- Michigan State can get a little more comfortable after beating the Hoosiers. Needed that one.
- The chaos in the HoLo last night did not affect the NIT. *heavy sigh*
- Seton Hall hosts UConn this evening. Can the Pirates keep their toes inside the lines?
- Syracuse hosts Clemson. Risk there, too.
- Minnesota visits Penn State, and I’m told one of the teams has to win. My guess would be that the loser will drop out of our projected field, but it’s possible both could stay if PSU wins, especially if it’s close.
- Providence goes to St. John’s for a bubbler.
- Stanford visits USC. As much as we love seeing Andy Enfield unhappy, we would advise Stanford to not try anything too daring in this one.
- Wichita State goes to Tulane, which is losable enough that dropping it shouldn’t mean leapfrogging the field. It might, though. So proceed cautiously.
- Colorado State hosts New Mexico. On the one hand, as with Wichita State/Tulane, that might be too bad a loss. On the other hand, the Rams are desperate.
Always a challenge, but never moreso than this season.
