In each of the first two weeks of this college football season, we have lost and gained a national championship contender. Clemson exited the scene in Week 1, but Florida State stepped into the place the Tigers had been slowly vacating for the last few years. Alabama receded to the playoff periphery in Week 2, but Texas surged into a prominent role. With each transition, it was a traditional power on the rise, but the message is the same: After the long-entrenched combination of Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma started to show cracks in 2021 and 2022, the ice may now be breaking up in a hurry. Movement is again happening at the top of the college football power structure.
A very easy error to make in college football prognostication is to look at surprises, say, “Those were surprising,” and then accept whatever new order they imply as though future surprises aren’t on their way. It’s not that future surprises are guaranteed by past ones, or that surprise begets more surprise, but an environment in which the best teams are losing is an environment in which the best teams are susceptible to being beaten, and that includes the recently ascended, who still have plenty of work to do to establish staying power. There’s a boy–crying–wolf element here too (How many times in the last few years have we heard forced anticipation for Clemson beating the pants off an ACC also-ran?), but when we say that anything can happen, we do mean it. Nobody’s place is assured except for probably Georgia’s, and that goes even for Florida State and Texas, stepping back into power. It’s unclear how thick competition is at the very top—we still don’t have a great sense of how good this particular Georgia team is, or how good they will be when their schedule makes it begin to matter—but below the top, there are at least twelve teams it wouldn’t be surprising to see make this national championship game, from the Seminoles and Longhorns all the way out to Notre Dame and Oregon State. We owe some of this reckoning to last year’s TCU reminding us we used to associate this sport with magic, but the source of the trend is simpler than that: Most of the teams who’ve ruled the recent sport have stepped back, and plenty of programs are concurrently rising. A collision is resulting in the middle.
So, while there may not be a big game this Saturday, the important ones hold their weight. There’s movement happening.
The Important Ones
- 12:00 PM EDT: Penn State @ Illinois (ESPN)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Kansas State @ Missouri (SECN)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Tennessee @ Florida (ESPN)
Penn State, Kansas State, and Tennessee are all in a similar place. Each is currently an afterthought in their own conference, yet a world exists in which they are their conference’s best team. Movelor, our college football model’s rating system, thinks that world is this one for both the Nittany Lions and the Wildcats.
For James Franklin’s Penn State, the road is littered with eleven-win seasons that didn’t result in any greater glory. The 2016 Nittany Lions, the one that beat Ohio State on that return of a blocked field goal, won the Big Ten, but they played Sam Darnold in the Rose Bowl. The 2017 team, the one which so heavily featured Saquon Barkley, smoked Michigan and played Ohio State within a point, but it prepared for New Year’s in Arizona, beating Washington in the Fiesta Bowl. In 2019, Penn State again beat everyone in the Big Ten East besides Ohio State, but it wound up in the Cotton Bowl, running up and down the field against Memphis. It would have been satisfying if last year’s 11-win team was invited to the Orange Bowl, completing the circuit, but it was the Rose Bowl instead, where they comfortably beat a Utah team who’d just pulverized USC in the Pac-12 Championship.
Had Penn State avoided a three-point loss at Pitt in 2016, and a three-point loss at Michigan State in 2017, and a five-point loss at Minnesota in 2019, the Nittany Lions may have been a regular playoff appearer through the back half of last decade. They certainly would have made it in 2016. They would have likely been ranked fifth or sixth in each of 2017 and 2019. The point of this is: Penn State has done enough over Franklin’s tenure that referring to the Big Ten as a three-team league rather than a two-team league is fair, and to make that matter, this might be Franklin’s best team yet. Drew Allar was, for some, the top-ranked quarterback in the high school class of 2022. The defense brought back three quarters of the production from a unit which finished last year ranked around the top ten by systems like ESPN’s SP+. So far, Penn State’s bullied West Virginia—who might make a bowl—and played a nearly perfect game against Delaware, who grades out around Temple when comparing the FCS to the FBS. Is Penn State the best team in the Big Ten? We don’t know. But they might be, and playing a Bret Bielema-coached Illinois team for whom scrappiness is most of the identity is a great chance to continue to make the case. It might not be the first real test, but if it isn’t, that’s going to speak highly of Penn State.
Chris Klieman’s Kansas State faces a different pair of ceilings. Kansas State can be the best in the Big 12. They’re overshadowed by Texas, but they’re also the reigning conference champs. The problem is that being the best in the Big 12 doesn’t mean as much nationally as being the best in the Big Ten. Need evidence? Kansas State, reigning Big 12 champions, returning plenty of last year’s roster and obliterating Troy last weekend after Troy went 12–2 in 2022, is only a four-point favorite against a Missouri team who hardly made a bowl last season and struggled last weekend to hold off Middle Tennessee State. It’s an insulting implication, but that’s what the Wildcats have a chance to correct as they visit their biggest rival’s biggest rival. Maybe the Big 12 runs through Austin again, maybe it doesn’t, but Kansas State can’t be counted out unless Kansas State really fails to show up between any storms in Columbia tomorrow.
Josh Heupel’s Tennessee is in a similar place to Penn State, but only in the very recent sense. Heupel hasn’t been in Knoxville for as long as Franklin’s been in Happy Valley, and Tennessee didn’t enjoy as much success last decade as the Nittany Lions achieved. The Vols were good last year, though, sitting with Penn State as a clear-cut top-six team on paper when all was said and done, and there’s reason to believe they could contend again this season. They didn’t impress against Austin Peay, but had the Vols won by 17 against Boston College we wouldn’t have made too much of it, and Austin Peay is about as good as Boston College is right now. Florida is a bit of a mystery, but no matter how good or bad the Gators turn out to be, the Volunteers have a chance to make a statement on Saturday night in the Swamp. Win big, and we’ll start asking the question of whether they could beat Alabama again and get to the Georgia game at 10–0. Given we think they could win big, I guess we’re already asking it.
For all three of these teams, the table is set to announce themselves as a national player. Maybe the narrative will accept them, maybe it won’t, but it is very possible that Penn State, Tennessee, and Kansas State are just as good as Michigan, Florida State, and Texas. In fact, Movelor thinks they might even be better.
The Interesting Ones
- Friday, 8:00 PM EDT: Utah State @ Air Force (CBSSN)
- 12:00 PM EDT: LSU @ Mississippi State (ESPN)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Louisville vs. Indiana (BTN)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Minnesota @ North Carolina (ESPN)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Northwestern @ Duke (ACCN)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Tulane @ Southern Miss (ESPNU)
- 5:00 PM EDT: Washington @ Michigan State (Peacock)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Georgia Tech @ Mississippi (SECN)
- 7:30 PM EDT: BYU @ Arkansas (ESPN2)
- 10:00 PM EDT: Colorado State @ Colorado (ESPN)
- 10:30 PM EDT: Fresno State @ Arizona State (FS1)
First, we should mention that this list isn’t exhaustive. There’s interest all over the place, from the Rio Grande Rivalry to Stanford head coach Troy Taylor facing his former team, FCS contender Sacramento State. This is college football: Almost every game presents some interest. Everyone is trying to get somewhere.
Second, were it not for the Mel Tucker scandal, Washington’s trip to Michigan State would look a whole lot like those three games we just talked about. The Huskies are trying to break into the national consciousness, and with their four games against the Pac-12’s other powers split evenly between the road and home, they better be good enough to handle Michigan State if they want to be a figure of interest in even their own conference.
Beyond that, we have a mix of happenings. Fresno State, Air Force, and Tulane are Movelor’s best picks to earn the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid, something which effectively constitutes mid-major football’s national championship. Fresno State appears to be in the most danger of the three this weekend, despite Tulane still potentially missing Michael Pratt. This isn’t a great reflection on the Group of Five’s overall strength—if the Group of Five favorite isn’t a slam dunk to win at Arizona State right now, those five conferences are lacking top teams—but Oregon State and Washington State are on their way, and we’re heading towards a more gradient lineup of conferences anyway, where the AAC is closer to the ACC in practical senses than it is to the MAC.
In that ACC, Louisville and North Carolina and Duke are each making a case as the conference’s second-best team, and while Duke has to do more against their Big Ten foe if they’re going to impress—given they’re playing Northwestern, the Big Ten’s worst team—each is facing a test and an opportunity against a Big Ten opponent.
In the SEC, Mississippi is trying to establish itself as a team of interest, and this week that involves playing a Georgia Tech team who hung with Louisville on the Friday night of Labor Day Weekend. Lane Kiffin’s group should win comfortably if they want to earn any plaudits, but they very well might do that. Earlier in the day and a little ways across the state, Mississippi State tries to upset LSU, sending Brian Kelly’s program into spirals of speculation and making a case for the Bulldogs as an SEC West sleeper. Finally, Arkansas is hosting BYU in a game which doesn’t mean much practically at the national level but is a little too good not to mention. Count Arkansas alongside Mississippi State as an SEC West team trying to sneak into our sphere of attention. The home–away splits aren’t as favorable for the Hogs, but like Mississippi State, Sam Pittman has a good life when it comes to SEC East opponents.
Finally, there’s the Colorado game against Colorado State. Colorado is the definition of interesting right now. The game might not be much, but it’s hard not to pay attention.
The Dormant Volcanoes
- 12:00 PM EDT: Florida State @ Boston College (ABC)
- 2:00 PM EDT: Weber State @ Utah (P12N)
- 2:30 PM EDT: Central Michigan @ Notre Dame (Peacock)
- 3:30 PM EDT: South Carolina @ Georgia (CBS)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Alabama @ USF (ABC)
- 3:30 PM EDT: San Diego State @ Oregon State (FS1)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Oklahoma @ Tulsa (ESPN2)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Western Michigan @ Iowa (BTN)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Western Kentucky @ Ohio State (FOX)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Bowling Green State @ Michigan (BTN)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Hawaii @ Oregon (P12N)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Wyoming @ Texas (LHN)
Of the 19 teams our model has at 1-in-25 or better of making the College Football Playoff, we’ve already talked about six of them, and USC is off this week, using their extra idle week they gained by playing Week Zero (the other will be Thanksgiving weekend, before a potential Pac-12 Championship appearance). The other twelve can be found here, each favored by 24 or more by the market and 25 or more by Movelor. To give some context on these, here’s how many points worse than Georgia Movelor thinks each of the twelve opponents is:
- South Carolina: 23.1
- Western Kentucky: 30.7
- Weber State: 34.3
- Wyoming: 35.3
- San Diego State: 38.2
- Tulsa: 39.1
- Western Michigan: 40.5
- USF: 41.6
- Central Michigan: 42.9
- Boston College: 43.0
- Hawaii: 45.8
- Bowling Green: 47.4
Credit to Utah for scheduling local foe Weber State. There is not a lot Utah can gain from playing this game.
It’s possible we should have included Georgia’s visit from South Carolina in the “interesting” bucket. We’ll learn something about the Dawgs tomorrow. We might not learn much, but we’re going to learn something. Also, if Tyler Buchner really is going to replace Jalen Milroe under center for Alabama, it might be a shrewd move by Nick Saban. If the Tide finish 11–2 and it’s a soft playoff bubble (say Texas and Georgia have won out and done so mostly convincingly, but Florida State’s got two losses and the Pac-12’s cannibalized itself), there’s reason to believe the committee will forgive the Texas loss more if it came with a guy who’s gone on to become the backup quarterback. All else equal, the system incentivizes changing quarterbacks after a loss.
The FCS (and a little Division II?!)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Holy Cross @ Yale (ESPN+)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Central Arkansas @ North Dakota State (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Southern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Ferris State @ Montana (ESPN+)
The biggest games below the FBS level include a D-II school this week, as two-time defending national champion Ferris State goes to Montana, whom Movelor has ranked 7th in the FCS. I have no idea how that game will go. We do not extend Movelor to include Division II teams. Not yet, anyway. Elsewhere, Yale plays its opener against Holy Cross, who’s trying to bounce back after a heartbreaker at Boston College. Holy Cross is only 19th in Movelor, but they’re high in the FCS polls. Yale’s in the Movelor FCS top 25. Southern Illinois visits SEMO for something Movelor has as a top-20 FCS matchup and one with a line of only 0.6 points. And North Dakota State, trying to get back atop the hill, gets a chance to play what’s probably an overmatched but still top-25 foe as Central Arkansas visits the Fargodome. ESPN+ has it all.
