Willson Contreras homered last night, bringing his wRC+ up to…just 105. That’s a good wRC+ for a catcher—among the 29 with 250 or more PA’s, it ranks twelfth (by the way, Victor Caratini’s at -0.9 fWAR on the year)—but it’s not what you want out of a 29-year-old who was around a 123 in the metric over his first 700 MLB PA’s. Contreras is good. Arguably the Cubs’ best player. But he hasn’t broken out at the plate, just like virtually every other hitter brought up in that era stagnated after initial success. Anyway, just a reminder that moving on from the core that suffered that fate doesn’t make it not a thing.
Ian Happ recorded three more hits last night, and while one was of the luckier variety, one was a long ball, and regardless, his wRC+ is now up to 97. There is a discrepancy between his wOBA and his xwOBA—the former is at .316, the latter is at .300—but Happ’s having sustained success at the plate, now sitting at a 151 wRC+ over his last 153 plate appearances. It’s great news. It’s a great development. And we’re getting close to the point now where Happ might only need to meet expectations to finish the year an above-average hitter. Good place to be.
Rafael Ortega homered and is now at a 125 wRC+, though with all of his career numbers, FanGraphs projects him for just a 95 in that metric over the remainder of the year, something that shouldn’t be expected to rise next season as he passes 30. It’s a similar story for Patrick Wisdom, who’s at 123 right now but is also projected to strike just a 95 over the remainder of 2021. He’s a year younger than Ortega, but there’s a good chance each is underwhelming in 2022, if both are given a chance at all (Wisdom seems more likely to stick around than Ortega, but it also seemed the Cubs would keep Anthony Rizzo for life, so what do I know).
Trevor Megill had a nice outing and is now at a 1.17 FIP over his last nine innings of work. That’s a very small sample, and Megill’s 2021 FIP is 5.94, but he’s only thrown 17.2 innings in total this year, so a flash of dominance is worth noting.
Manny Rodríguez’s rough inning started with a bloop double, and his two strikeouts were encouraging, but he still hasn’t been the guy the Cubs were hoping to see after he pitched in the futures game and posted some really impressive numbers in Tennessee and Iowa earlier this year. He’s at just a 3.63 xERA, which is encouraging, but his FIP is 5.42 and he’s not striking batters out at the clip he managed on the farm. At only 24, I wonder if he could use a little more time in the oven. We’ll see. Harder with relievers, especially with a 40-man crunch, but he’s more of a prospect than so many other guys, so…I don’t know. It’s tough (on the topic of the 40-man crunch—forgot to mention Adrian Sampson yesterday, yes, I think Sampson will be allowed to walk, but then maybe Megill’s heading back so you still probably have only three or four obviously open spots before free agency, and you need a lot in free agency). I don’t think Rodríguez will go, but I think he may be closer to the chopping block than futures-game-reliever would have you think.
***
The Diaspora:
Anthony Rizzo had two more hits for the Yankees. Kyle Schwarber had two more hits for the Red Sox.
Around the Division:
The Reds are now just percentage points behind the Padres for the wild card, with the Cardinals still three and a half back after losing to the Dodgers last night (Albert Pujols notably homered for Los Angeles).
Up Next:
The rubber match.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing across from left to right at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Vladimir Gutierrez
The Opponent:
This will be Gutierrez’s fourth start of the year against the Cubs. In the previous three, he’s averaged nearly six innings of work, striking out five per outing while walking just two per outing. He’s allowed one home run each time.
Overall, Gutierrez’s biggest contribution to Cincinnati’s playoff hopes has been eating innings. He’s pitched at something like a 180-inning pace, and has managed a 5.07 FIP with a 4.31 xERA. Solid. Competent.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +110 underdogs, with the Reds at -120 for an implied Chicago win probability of about 45%. The over/under’s at nine and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Michael Hermosillo is dealing with a forearm issue, and Jason Heyward was scratched with a hamstring problem last night.
Cubs Thoughts:
I want to see a lot more out of Scott Effross and Michael Rucker as we approach these 40-man decisions. It’s similar to Hermosillo and Alfonso Rivas. Let’s see what they’ve got. Rucker’s especially interesting because his ERA/xERA/FIP split (8.38/5.11/3.74) is so wide.
Same goes for Megill. Get him in some high-leverage situations. See if he can keep this up. Basically, I hope we get to see the largest sample sizes possible for guys about whom decisions will need to be made.
