You’ve seen them, if you’ve been on The Internet™ today. Circa Sports, evidently a sportsbook, tweeted the following late yesterday (hat tip to @mark_talarico for first alerting me to it, and my cousin Aaron via text message for second alerting me to it):
Understandably, The Internet™ is in a tizzy.
What should you make of these odds? How should you react? Should you call every sportsbook in Reno, see if they’re taking action on NIT futures, and start driving west on I-80 unless you’re in California in which case start driving east on I-80?
The answer to that last question is always yes, but as for the first two, let’s talk through some teams.
The Favorite
The Field – 5-to-1 odds (8.1% true probability, per our model)
Compared to the teams listed, yes, the field is the favorite. And that’s not because these guys did a bad job picking who to drop in there. You could make a case Dayton should be listed (because I’ve sent them eight letters a day from different return addresses for the last six months suggesting they stick it to the NCAA and take them to court when forced to accept a bid to that shitty other tournament the bureaucrats put on), but that’s a reach. All the prime contenders really are in there. Credit to Circa Sports. They’ve earned my follow, and no, I don’t expect a follow-back (but it’d be kind of nice).
Back to The Field, though.
This is part of what makes the NIT so undeniably great. Its championship is fewer than three months away, and it’s still nearly thrice as likely that none of the 79 well-chosen teams on this list win it all than it is for any individual one of them to triumph. Teams can never feel secure in their NITitle chances.
The Other Favorite
North Carolina – 12-to-1 odds (1.4% true probability)
Don’t bite on this one. Yes, UNC is looking NIT-bound, but there are two things prohibiting them from being the real NIT favorite right now:
- They won’t make the NIT if they keep playing this badly.
- Our model is low on them and that’s without accounting for the fact Cole Anthony would probably sit the NIT out to prepare for the draft.
- Bonus third thing this might be hard to take, but UNC just isn’t good enough right now to be expected to win five straight against NIT-caliber teams. Sorry.
Hopeless Bets
UCLA – 200-to-1 (0.0%)
Mississippi – 200-to-1 (0.0%)
San Francisco – 300-to-1 (0.0%)
South Carolina – 300-to-1 (0.0%)
Arizona State – 75-to-1 (0.1%)
Kansas State – 200-to-1 (0.1%)
Harvard – 300-to-1 (0.1%)
Really hard to see any of these teams even making the NIT. Harvard’s the most likely, but remember: The Ivy League tournament is happening at Harvard.
Longshot Value
Villanova – 500-to-1 (0.7%)
Wisconsin – 200-to-1 (0.9%)
Duquesne – 300-to-1 (0.6%)
Davidson – 300-to-1 (0.4%)
UNC-Greensboro – 300-to-1 (0.4%)
Ever dream of getting rich quick? These aren’t the highest-value plays out there, but they’re the best among teams who don’t have much of a shot. Duquesne and Davidson are competitive A-10 teams. Villanova and Wisconsin are good enough to win an NIT and bad enough they’d probably play hard in an NIT. UNC-Greensboro presumably has a little bit of the we-got-embarrassed-last-year-when-we-were-overseeded-and-Lipscomb-was-devastatingly-underseeded-and-they-kicked-us-in-the-balls motivation going for them.
The Numbers Like ‘Em, But Would They Try?
Kentucky – 1000-to-1 (1.0%)
Michigan – 1000-to-1 (1.0%)
Seton Hall – 300-to-1 (0.7%)
Speaking of teams that might not play hard in an NIT, Kentucky and Michigan would presumably not show up if they made March’s biggest tournament. It’s possible Michigan would surprise us, but their narrative, as well as the overall sense of unearned elitism that permeates from Ann Arbor, turns this blogger away.
Seton Hall’s in a different category. Myles Powell might surprise and go win this thing himself, but one has to assume his coaches would play it safe and hold him out.
Little to Say, Nothing to Play
Furman – 100-to-1 (0.9%)
East Tennessee State – 100-to-1 (0.9%)
Pitt – 200-to-1 (0.4%)
Nevada – 300-to-1 (0.3%)
Temple – 75-to-1 (0.9%)
Miami – 200-to-1 (0.3%)
New Mexico State – 300-to-1 (0.2%)
Liberty – 100-to-1 (0.5%)
Vermont – 100-to-1 (0.5%)
DePaul – 50-to-1 (0.8%)
USC – 50-to-1 (0.8%)
SMU – 75-to-1 (0.5%)
Northern Iowa – 100-to-1 (0.3%)
Belmont – 200-to-1 (0.3%)
Utah – 200-to-1 (0.2%)
Utah State – 25-to-1 (0.9%)
Alabama – 25-to-1 (0.9%)
Georgia – 30-to-1 (0.6%)
UConn – 50-to-1 (0.3%)
Syracuse – 30-to-1 (0.5%)
St. John’s – 25-to-1 (0.5%)
None of these teams are real contenders, and the odds aren’t such that they’re valuable, either. We might talk about them a lot (@Syracuse), but when it comes down to it, they just really aren’t that likely to win the NIT this year. That could change, but for now, respect our wishes and keep reading.
The Price Is Wrong, Bitch
Washington – 50-to-1 (1.9%)
North Carolina State – 30-to-1 (2.8%)
Purdue – 50-to-1 (1.7%)
Tennessee – 30-to-1 (2.4%)
Missouri – 50-to-1 (1.4%)
Iowa State – 30-to-1 (2.1%)
Providence – 50-to-1 (1.0%)
Mississippi State – 20-to-1 (2.3%)
Georgetown – 25-to-1 (1.8%)
Illinois – 15-to-1 (2.7%)
Oklahoma – 30-to-1 (1.4%)
Rutgers – 15-to-1 (2.5%)
LSU – 25-to-1 (1.6%)
Oklahoma State – 20-to-1 (1.8%)
Cincinnati – 30-to-1 (1.2%)
TCU – 20-to-1 (1.7%)
Notre Dame – 20-to-1 (1.6%)
Texas – 25-to-1 (1.2%)
Oregon State – 30-to-1 (1.0%)
All of these teams fall above the arbitrary threshold I’ve set for legitimate NIT contention. Yet with all of them, Circa Sports is trying to nip you in the pocketbook.
Reasons to Doubt
Houston – 100-to-1 (1.6%)
Louisiana Tech – 100-to-1 (1.4%)
Xavier – 100-to-1 (1.4%)
Richmond – 100-to-1 (1.4%)
Stanford – 75-to-1 (1.8%)
Minnesota – 50-to-1 (2.4%)
Virginia Tech – 75-to-1 (1.5%)
Evidently our model has something called an error margin, and that error margin, along with something called “opportunity cost” (Joe started to explain this to me and then said something about it being inexplicable to a man spending his twenties blogging about the NIT) are reasons to not take these otherwise advantageous lines. Thanks, Joe.
Pretty Good Plays
Florida – 200-to-1 (1.4%)
Iowa – 200-to-1 (1.0%)
Indiana – 75-to-1 (2.6%)
Arkansas – 100-to-1 (1.9%)
Colorado – 100-to-1 (1.8%)
VCU – 75-to-1 (2.4%)
These aren’t slam dunks. But they’re pretty good. Each team has the pieces to not only make an NIT, but to win it. Each is undervalued by our new friends at Circa Sports (just kidding we aren’t friends they haven’t followed me back yet). But you can do better.
Pretty Great Plays
Marquette – 300-to-1 (1.6%)
Creighton – 200-to-1 (2.1%)
Penn State – 300-to-1 (1.3%)
Memphis – 200-to-1 (2.0%)
Virginia – 200-to-1 (1.8%)
Saint Mary’s – 100-to-1 (2.4%)
BYU – 100-to-1 (2.3%)
Yale – 200-to-1 (1.0%)
These are slam dunks. All these guys could win it. All these guys have long odds. Three of them would be an absolute riot to watch cut down the nets (I’ll let you guess the other two, but imagine Tony Bennett’s joy as he finally won the big one). Still, believe it or not, you can do even better.
Hope You Like Yachts
Texas Tech – 500-to-1 (1.6%)
Wichita State – 500-to-1 (1.6%)
Ka-wowie, Bob. That’s a lot of money.
No, these guys aren’t the favorites. But at these odds? Tell Reno I’m on my way.
