Burnley doesn’t play until Monday, but what happens these next three days impacts them, so let’s talk through it.
First, here’s Burnley’s section of the table:
13. Crystal Palace: 38 points, -20 goal differential, 32 matches played
14. Burnley: 36 points, -15 goal differential, 33 matches played
15. Southampton: 36 points, -18 goal differential, 32 matches played
16. Newcastle: 36 points, -18 goal differential, 33 matches played
17. Brighton: 34 points, -6 goal differential, 33 matches played
18. Fulham: 27 points, -18 goal differential, 33 matches played
19. West Brom: 25 points, -34 goal differential, 33 matches played
20. Sheffield United: 17 points, -38 goal differential, 33 matches played
The most consequential place in there is 18th, at and below which three teams will be relegated at season’s end. Burnley can’t technically clinch avoiding relegation this weekend. But they could get to the door.
Crystal Palace and Southampton play one another May 11th in the resolution of that game each holds in hand, so for now, they’re in Burnley’s part of the world, and overall, at least one of them figures to stay in Burnley’s part of the world. They play, respectively, Man City (at home) tomorrow morning (I’m in America) and Leicester (at home) this afternoon.
Newcastle and Brighton are right there with Burnley, each trying to clinch survival themselves. Brighton, the better of the two (that goal differential implies some bad luck for the Brightons), hosts Leeds tomorrow. Newcastle hosts Arsenal on Sunday.
Fulham, trying to climb out of the relegation zone with little hope of doing so, plays at Chelsea tomorrow. West Brom, who still theoretically has a shot at staying on the top tier, hosts Wolverhampton on Monday.
Of all of these teams, only Brighton is a favorite, and it’s more likely that they’ll draw than that they’ll win. Such is life at the bottom of the table. With that, then, comes opportunity for the Clarets. Win on Monday, and they well might be up to 13th, with twelfth not far out of reach (Wolverhampton enters the weekend with 41 points over 33 matches played). Draw, and they figure to be able to hold on to 14th. Most importantly, as long as Burnley at least matches Fulham’s result, the lads should have a shot to clinch survival next Monday at Craven Cottage. West Brom could complicate this—their visit from Wolverhampton and their visit to Arsenal next Sunday are each theoretically winnable (the former much more so than the latter). But overall, the goal for the weekend is to match whatever Fulham does. Get that done, and it’s a good weekend.
