We, as some of you know, were in Lexington this weekend, and having been in Lexington, I think we’re obligated to post a look at Kentucky’s NIT chances, speaking both practically and spiritually.
Practically, sure, they have an NIT chance. The SEC has enough good teams that can beat them and enough mediocre teams they can beat that the Cats can probably grab a winning overall record with enough problems on the résumé to find themselves close. It isn’t all that likely, since Kentucky should be pretty good, and it might be harder than it is for, say, Tennessee due to the other tournament’s selection committee’s propensity to give the benefit of the doubt to big brands (see: State, Michigan), but Kentucky can make the NIT. Practically speaking, their chance isn’t that much worse than even that of our preliminary NIT favorite, the Bonnies of St. Bonaventure. Part of this, though, is because it’s just hard to make the NIT. Nobody enters the year with even a 50% chance of making the field. It’s too narrow. It’s so hard to thread the needle. That’s a lot of what makes the NIT so much more prestigious than that other tournament in the first place. With the other tournament, you know a lot of the teams who will make it entering the year. With the NIT? We are guessing, friends. We are guessing.
Spiritually…
I don’t know. Lexington didn’t match my perception. I was expecting more of a genteel vibe, something a little more like Oxford, Mississippi. I thought Kentucky would be on the white-collar side of the SEC. Instead, it felt like it was on the blue-collar side, past even Knoxville. Maybe it’s because it was gray and cloudy. Maybe I didn’t get west enough in downtown. Maybe it’s because students were allegedly on a fall break of sorts (respect to Kentucky students for presumably going nuts enough over Halloween that the school now sends them away for it). But the place had a lot more grit than I expected.
Sometimes, grit can work in an NIT program’s spiritual favor. We love Mississippi State, for example, and Mississippi State’s the grit captain anywhere east of Shreveport and south of Memphis. Other times, though, grit adds a desperation to a program that prohibits it from actually failing too severely. Bloomington’s pleasant enough that the basketball team doesn’t have to win. Austin’s comfortable enough that the football team doesn’t have to win. Kentucky, though? That place loves basketball, and not in a way where they just enjoy it. They need it. The NIT isn’t a funny disappointment. It’s a brutal disappointment. No wonder those dudes lost to Robert Morris.
Overall, then, yes, of course Kentucky can make the NIT. Anyone can do it (outside of most of the Big Ten, but that’s another matter). But they’re not going to make it with their hearts. Which is to say, they won’t just be bummed if they’re with us. They’ll be enraged.
