A quick disclaimer on this: I haven’t been reading much trade speculation and rumors, so it’s possible an assessment below doesn’t mesh with what’s going on. With that, though: Even at this point, eight days out, a lot can change, and every single player does have an assigned price in the eyes of every single front office, even if it’s so unrealistic that nobody’s going to pay it (so it goes unnamed).
Now. Where every player fits in the Cubs’ trade deadline approach:
Not (Practically) Touchable:
- Seiya Suzuki
- Nico Hoerner
- Christopher Morel
- Justin Steele
- Keegan Thompson
- Scott Effross
- Nelson Velázquez
- Alfonso Rivas
These guys are young and they’re all under club control through at least 2025. They aren’t going anywhere.
Out the Door:
- Willson Contreras
- David Robertson
- Mychal Givens
- Chris Martin
There’s an explanation under which all of these guys but Robertson could stick around. It’s not always that feasible, but, well, that’s why they’re here. Contreras could theoretically get extended, but there’s really no indication that will happen. Givens has a mutual option (thanks to Roster Resource, by the way), and Martin’s under club control through next season, but Martin’s fairly old and both he and Givens are attractive assets. It would be surprising if any of these four stuck around.
Short-Term Spoken For:
- Marcus Stroman
- Yan Gomes
The Cubs could trade Stroman or Gomes—each has (a differing level of) value, neither is under contract for 2025, the first definite contention year—but it doesn’t seem they will. Each is wanted for 2023. Especially Stroman.
No Value:
- Jason Heyward
- Alec Mills
Both these guys are hurt, and neither was performing well before injury.
What-If:
- Kyle Hendricks
- Wade Miley
Miley was signed specifically to be flipped at the deadline. Now…dang. Hendricks, of course, is more interesting, but his injury has also taken him off the list.
Potential Fringe Characters to Move:
- P.J. Higgins
- Jackson Frazier
- Mark Leiter Jr.
- Michael Rucker
It’d be surprising to see any of these four move, for various reasons (Higgins seems like a promising candidate for a platoon with Gomes, Frazier & Rucker & Leiter don’t have much value), but if another team liked any of the four, they could likely have them. With only a slight premium applied to Higgins.
The Possibilities:
- Rafael Ortega
- Patrick Wisdom
- Drew Smyly
- Steven Brault
- Adrian Sampson
- Frank Schwindel
- Rowan Wick
- David Bote
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Ortega has been lumped in with the Contreras/Robertson crew above, and that’s probably correct, but he’s not really that different from Patrick Wisdom except that the Cubs’ upcoming outfield situation looks better than the Cubs’ upcoming infield situation. Were Nick Madrigal healthy and playing well, or had the Cubs spent on Corey Seager this offseason instead of Suzuki, things might be flipped. Not to say Ortega and Wisdom are equivalent in value, but each is an older role player with a lot of club control remaining. Each could fit with the Cubs’ 2023 plans—the Gomes situation—but right now, Wisdom seems like he could fit more. Ortega is probably gone.
Wisdom is a better player than Ortega, quieting a lot of the doubts that accompanied him coming into the season. The Cubs would be selling high on him were he to sell, but that seems to have more to do with his age than his performance at this point.
Smyly pitched well yesterday, showing a lot of promise as he continues to ramp his way up from the IL. There’s a mutual option here for 2023, but the thing with mutual options is that it’s rare for players to be exactly good enough for both them and the club to find the option to be at the right price. Will he go? I don’t know, but he should get a lot of ink this week as a “bargain” option for teams looking for starting pitching.
Brault is also fresh off the IL, but he’s looked good in relief in his three appearances, and while he’s under club control for another year, I would hope the Cubs aren’t trying to finalize their 2023 plans at this point for something as fickle as a bullpen. If an offer is there, my guess is it would be taken, though it would probably be small and therefore not a big priority.
If Smyly’s a bargain option for a rotation upgrade, Sampson’s on the Goodwill rack. Still, he could provide value for somebody willing to bet on him to continue his serviceability, so if someone calls, I’d imagine the Cubs will answer. He’s upwards of 30 years old, and he’s got a lot of club control left but he’s also only been a fringe 40-man player these last couple years.
Schwindel is in the same situation as Wisdom, except he hasn’t been playing well. For a while there, he had a good stat line following the 12-hour demotion, but right now his wRC+ over that stretch is only 90, which for a first baseman is very bad. It would be weird if someone thought him worth trading for, but it’s theoretically possible.
Rowan Wick would be a surprising guy to see traded, but he does have a solid FIP. He’s 29, he’s under club control through 2025, and rare is the reliever who can be counted on to be good many years in a row.
Finally, David Bote. Bote’s under contract through 2024 (and under club control through 2026), he’s a year or two younger than Wisdom, and his positional versatility leans toward the middle infield rather than the outfield, making him theoretically more valuable for the Cubs’ specific purposes. At this point, oddly, he’s a lesser-known quantity than Wisdom. He’s been off the field so much that it’s hard to know what to expect, but for whatever it’s worth, he’s had a good 48 plate appearances so far this year. It’s really hard to see someone wanting him—as is the case with Wick and Schwindel and Sampson—but it’s not out of the question, and he’s in a place where the Cubs would definitely listen.
Ian Happ:
- Ian Happ
Happ’s the big question mark. He’s having a great year, he’s under club control but only through 2023, and the Cubs’ upcoming strength seems to lie in their outfield, all of which are good reasons to sell high. He seems interested in staying in Chicago, though, he hasn’t turned 28, and if the Cubs want to compete at all next year, it’s hard to see how they do that without Happ as part of the equation. There just isn’t enough production elsewhere, and it would be more expensive to get Happ’s WAR from the free agent market than to get it from Happ. It’s an emotional question, but it really is a tough one if distilled to what most maximizes the Cubs’ championship probabilities over these next five to eight years.
**
How many players are leaving, then? Four seem gone for sure, five if you include Ortega. I’d personally guess Smyly also goes, and that Happ goes (for a great return), but that Wisdom doesn’t—it does sound likely that the Cubs add a shortstop/third baseman this offseason, but that’s not guaranteed, and Wisdom could theoretically make sense as a short-term first base option if the Cubs can’t find a good trade for him in December. All that said: I was pretty confident the Cubs wouldn’t trade all three of Rizzo/Bryant/Báez last year. So, take this with that grain of salt.
A Winning Streak!
It was a good weekend in Philadelphia for these Cubs, who took all three from a Phillies team suddenly floundering. They won in a variety of ways, and while the pitching was good, the offense was downright exciting, between Friday’s explosion and Nico Hoerner’s Saturday heroics and Yan Gomes leading an outright assault on the left field bleachers yesterday. Velázquez had a three-home run weekend. Morel doubled three times and was on base ten times. If Contreras were traded before tonight’s game, his final Cubs weekend would have featured three extra base hits in ten trips to the plate.
Does this change much about this season? No, aside from potentially really boosting Smyly’s trade value. But, on the margins, it improves next year’s outlook. And that of the year beyond next year. And so on, and so forth.
The Red Sox Are a Mess
The All-Star break was a great opportunity for the Red Sox to reset coming off a brutal weekend against the Yankees lowlighted by the loss of Chris Sale. Then the Blue Jays scored 25 runs in the first five innings on Friday night, and beat Boston again on Saturday and Sunday, and even with the Mariners swept and the Rays losing a series to the Royals and the Guardians splitting four with the White Sox, the Red Sox are three games back of a playoff slot, and Cleveland’s a game ahead of them.
Much of the attention on the Red Sox has revolved around their pitching woes, but even after Friday night, the pitching situation is merely mediocre: They’re 17th in FIP. The hitting? Also mediocre: They’re 12th in wRC+. The pitching is definitely a problem, but the hitting isn’t actually that much better. Trevor Story is below average at the plate on the season. J.D. Martinez has slugged, but you expect designated hitters to slug. It’s really just been Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts producing on offense, and while they’ve done heroic work, it hasn’t been enough. This is not a good offensive team. It’s not a good team. And Devers just went on the IL with a hamstring injury.
Elsewhere around the league this weekend:
- The Mets had a wild one. They traded for Dan Vogelbach and Michael Pérez as bench depth, Buck Showalter inexplicably opted to pinch hit Tomas Nido instead of Jeff McNeil, and the fellas from Queens dropped their first two games out of the break before beating the Padres last night. They’re fine—they’re a game and a half up on Atlanta, who took two of three from Anaheim but lost Adam Duvall for the year to a wrist injury—but the thing about hiring these “old school” guys like Showalter and Tony La Russa is that they seem more prone to clubhouse and media meltdowns. That doesn’t mean they are (there isn’t exactly an “old fogie” variable in manager databases), but it’s where the risk lies in what feels like a high-risk, low-reward approach to managerial hiring to this blogger.
- Speaking of media spats, Nick Castellanos heard it from the press and the fans as he continued to struggle in Philadelphia. “See?” Tom Ricketts presumably said to Jed Hoyer. “This is why we can’t sign free agents.”
- Max Meyer, among the Marlins’ top prospects, is going on the IL with an elbow sprain. Jorge Soler is going on the IL with back spasms.
- Mike Trout remains out with his own back issues. There’s no indication yet on when he’ll be activated, though it doesn’t seem to be a long-term concern.
- Paul Goldschmidt homered four times over the weekend for St. Louis as they took one of three from the Reds, but now he and Nolan Arenado will miss the Cardinals’ series in Toronto due to the culture war. Tyler Stephenson broke his clavicle and will return to the Cincinnati IL. Steven Matz tore his MCL and will return to the St. Louis IL. Tyler Mahle returned from the Cincinnati IL.
- The Brewers got three home runs from Hunter Renfroe, sweeping the Rockies and pulling two and a half ahead of St. Louis. Jace Peterson’s onto the IL with an elbow strain. Aaron Ashby’s been extended, with club options keeping him under Milwaukee’s control through the 2029 season.
- The Dodgers swept the Giants, setting San Francisco back two games from St. Louis for the final Wild Card spot, and one game back of Philadelphia. Evan Longoria is going on the IL with a hamstring problem. For the Dodgers, Andrew Heaney is expected to be activated this week.
- Michael King left Friday’s game against the Orioles with elbow pain, and it turned out to be a fractured bone. He’ll miss the rest of the season. The Yankees took two of three on that series. Aaron Judge homered three times and doubled twice.
- Eduardo Rodriguez has reappeared and will begin a throwing program with the Tigers. We continue to hope all parties are ok amidst whatever’s going on there. Meanwhile, Alex Faedo and Kyle Funkhouser are each out for the rest of the season, Michael Pineda just went on the IL with a triceps issue, and Rony García may be joining him with a biceps issue. Wow.
- Byron Buxton received a PRP injection in his knee. The Twins swept a two-game set with the Tigers. With the White Sox and Guardians splitting, Minnesota’s lead extended to three over Cleveland and four over Chicago.
- Jeffrey Springs came off the IL for the Rays, but Tampa Bay lost two of three to Kansas City, treading water in that Wild Card race. Kevin Kiermaier is going to miss the rest of the season with his hip injury.
- Yordan Álvarez and Julio Rodríguez each missed time this weekend with nagging injuries. The Astros swept the Mariners.
- Bryan Reynolds should return soon for the Pirates.
Finally, the international draft will not be happening, and the qualifying offer will remain in place, at least for a few more years. No deal reached between the sides there.
David Bakhtiari: Healthy?
The Packers put David Bakhtiari on the PUP list, sidelining him at least for the start of training camp. It’s unclear how much this means, but really, it’s kind of a gradient thing, right? At some point in the recovery, Bakhtiari was going to be or will be healthy enough for training camp. That point hasn’t happened yet. It’s still coming. Does this mean he’s suffered a setback? Maybe. Matt LaFleur (who got extended, by the way—along with Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball, but none of that’s surprising) said Bakhtiari would be ready for camp, now he’s not. That’s too bad.
Other surprising PUPpers: Mason Crosby, Dean Lowry, Christian Watson. No word on what’s up with any of them, though the lack of news would seem to suggest they should be fine.
The Matthew Tkachuk Trade
I’m going to defer to Gavin Lee on this, because he explained it well and I would not have understood it without someone explaining it to me. Per Lee, the gist of the Tkachuk-for-Huberdeau-and-others trade seems to be that the Flames get better immediately while trading a man who wants a trade and the Panthers dodge some impending salary cap issues without getting too much worse.
How Is Josef Newgarden So Good at Iowa?
First off, glad Newgarden sounds like he’ll be ok. Secondly, how is he so dominant at this one particular speedway? One that’s an oval, no less. I need someone to explain this to me, because my perception is that IndyCar has more passing on ovals than on road courses (as every series does), and IndyCar’s fairly competitive overall. Maybe it’s because the track’s so short?
On the NASCAR side of things, I wonder what the reaction would have been had Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch’s disqualifications resulted in yet another winner, rather than just adding to Chase Elliott’s stockpile. Would NASCAR still have gone through with it? The rules seem flexible in other places, but I obviously know way, way less than many on this, so maybe I’m being too conspiratorial. Another wrinkle there would have been that JGR’s disqualifications could have cost a JGR driver (Martin Truex Jr.) a playoff spot. But, it won’t have impacted that.
In Formula 1, a Ferrari comeback was getting to be a popular prediction after their success these last few weeks, but with Leclerc’s wreck, it’s looking again like Max Verstappen and Red Bull will run away with it. Ten of the 22 grands prix remain, but Verstappen would really have to underperform to leave the window open to get beaten. It’s not as simple as Ferrari/Leclerc controlling their fate.
**
Viewing schedule for the evening, second screen rotation in italics:
- 7:05 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Philadelphia, Fried vs. Suárez (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Baltimore, Kluber vs. Voth (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Boston, Plesac vs. Pivetta (MLB TV)
- 8:05 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Cubs, Brubaker vs. Sampson (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Arizona, Junis vs. Kelly (MLB TV)
