The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin tonight (to echo a common theme: playoff hockey is so fun, everybody), and our NHL Gelo model is live again. We don’t know how good it is—it performs well in backtesting, but the only thing we have to backtest it against is the data we built it off of, so that’s a little circular. We think it’s at least fine, on par with other Elo-adjacent models out there, and we’re trying it out in the betting markets, so we’ll be getting some idea of its performance over the days and weeks ahead.
Hockey is an interesting sport quantification-wise. Baseball is famously extremely quantifiable—a series of individual matchups with binary outcomes. Basketball isn’t incomparable—more happens around the edges (though some happens around the edges in baseball as well, as sabermetrics’ struggles to quantify the defensive side of the game illustrate well), but as with each pitch in baseball, each basketball possession follows one single script: turnover or not, three-point attempt or two-point attempt, foul or not, shot made or not, offensive rebound or defensive rebound, repeat. Football and soccer and hockey are different—there are complexities statistics struggle to distill, and as the smallest industry globally of the three, hockey, by my impression, lags behind a little bit. Which isn’t to say there aren’t awesome hockey stats out there—there are, plenty of brilliant minds are doing brilliant work in this field—but is to say that hockey, statistically, is kind of like a developing country compared to, especially, baseball.
Where does our model fit into this? It’s extremely simple. Extremely, extremely simple, as far as these things go. But it’s a doorway for us into this world, and our hope is that over time, we’ll learn and iterate and improve enough to make it more and more useful. It’ll likely never be as good as the daily betting markets at predicting the outcomes of individual games—it’s extremely rare for a projection system to perform that well, especially one that’s publicly available (because betting markets learn). But if it’s useful for futures, great, and if it can have hot streaks now and then, great, and if it helps enhance hockey fandom for hockey fans, amazing, because that’s ultimately what we’re after.
The Bets Go On
We lost our weekend IndyCar bets, with NASCAR ongoing today due to rain in Dover yesterday afternoon. The MLB futures portfolio continues to fill out, and we began our NHL effort today. Overall, the questions are whether we gain or lose ground in our experimental fields (the motorsports, the hockey) over these next five months while the baseball regular season winds on, and then whether the baseball portfolio will grow strong enough to flip us all the way back profitable in our all-time average results. We may have been too conservative in how many units we dedicated to it, but putting 1,040 units into a bucket of availability for the season after only having bet something like 3,500 units all time prior to the season already feels a little unreasonable. We’ll see. It’s a vain goal, if we’re being honest. But it’s fun to be able to point to an overall track record of profitability. In the meantime, we’ll keep hoping on one of our NASCAR moonshots to connect. Or for Gelo to stun us in its success.
Christian Watson and the Rest
After spending Friday’s notes praising Brian Gutekunst for not reaching on a wide receiver or giving up a lot in a trade to acquire one sooner in the draft, I shut my computer, looked at my phone, and saw Gutekunst had traded the Packers’ pair of second round picks to move up and draft Christian Watson.
Is Watson a reach? I’m not sure. Gutekunst would know better than I, and I’ll defer to him. But there’s clear downside with him (drop concerns, specifically) that’s unsettling, and while his upside is massive (incredible athlete, plenty of things to praise), he’s another specialized weapon in an assortment of specialized weapons rather than an all-purpose target, like Treylon Burks would have been. You can win with that, and the upside is higher, but the downside is lower. We’ll see. Beyond there, it was a fun little draft. A couple more receivers, a lot of offensive line help, more investments in the defense—good stuff. It seems like the position the Packers are in is one in which Gutekunst deserves Packers’ fans trust, the NFC North remains the Packers’ to lose, and we’ll see what happens from there. The team seems to have a pretty high floor as the offseason winds on (and maybe we’re still going to get that coveted safety blanket via free agency or trade).
Breece Hall and the Rest
Four Iowa State players were drafted, beginning with Breece Hall, who went to the Jets early in the second round. Eyioma Uwazurike went in the fourth round to the Broncos. Charlie Kolar went in the fourth round to the Ravens. Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant, heading to the 49ers with the final pick.
Among undrafted players, Mike Rose signed with the Chiefs, Chase Allen signed with the Bears, Andrew Mevis signed with the Jaguars, and Jake Hummel signed with the Rams. Of the eight Cyclones new to NFL squads, Hall is going to see touches right away, Kolar and Uwazurike seem likely to play a lot of snaps this fall, and the rest are bigger question marks. Best of luck to them. They all did good things in Ames. Purdy getting to be the third-string guy for the Niners would be a fairly solid outcome for him at this stage.
Jordan Addison, the Transfer Portal, and Tampering
Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison drew some attention late last week when ESPN reported that Pitt, Addison’s (former?) team, suspects USC of “tampering,” encouraging the star to transfer to Los Angeles before he was in the transfer portal. There’s a lot of speculation happening, but the speculation that makes the most sense (which isn’t to say it’s true, or that other speculation is false) is that Addison’s relationship with Caleb Williams, the new USC quarterback who—like Addison—hails from the D.C. metro area, is playing a role.
The tampering question is a legitimate one with the current transfer setup. It’s a messy issue. On the one hand, players being constantly recruited from the moment they emerge as a prospect until the moment their eligibility is no more sounds absolutely exhausting. On the other, who’s going to manage policing the thousands upon thousands of college athletes to ensure none tamper? The NCAA? A “nonprofit” (seriously, in this case, it does cost money to investigate things) famous for its inconsistency and incompetence in investigating recruiting and other rules violations? This isn’t the NBA, where there are only a few hundred players. This isn’t the NFL, where there are only a few thousand players. This is college sports, where individual programs sometimes have upwards of one hundred athletes within them, there are more than one hundred FBS football teams, and you’re dealing with a lot of 18-year-olds. Good luck. I’d just legalize it all and allow schools to hire more coaches. Personally.
The Transfer Portal Has a New Top Player (and Other Headlines)
While college football, to get back to our discussion about stats, has a little less of a transfer portal for us to wrap our heads around, the databasers and reporters that be have made it very easy to follow the college basketball transfer season. God bless you, Evan Miyakawa. God bless you, scoops guys.
New five-star entries to the portal:
- Matthew Mayer, that big old ugly guy for Baylor who, for Austin folks and Drew Brees/Nick Foles fans, went to Westlake, is into the portal. The new top player available. Great scorer, strong defensive numbers, one of the best players in the country, period, and a tough loss for Baylor if they lose him, though they may lose him already as he’s also going through the NBA Draft process. One of those all-options-open things, but he’s not a definite draft pick and he’s in the portal, so we’re going to talk about him.
- Keyontae Johnson, the Florida standout who collapsed on the court in December of 2020, is into the portal. He’s yet to be medically cleared to play and he’s also the subject of an ongoing sexual assault investigation, but he’s in the portal.
- Keion Brooks, who started every game for Kentucky, is into the portal. Good forward, multiple years of eligibility remaining.
- New Mexico State guard Teddy Allen, who made some waves in March with his scoring, is into the portal. Like Mayer, he’s also in the NBA Draft mix.
- Western Kentucky big man Jamarion Sharp is into the portal. Fairly well-rounded, could fit on just about any team.
Five-star transfer commitments:
- Johni Broome is headed from Morehead State to Auburn. Averaged a double double last year for the OVC team.
- Big man Efton Reid is headed from LSU to Gonzaga. Gonzaga transfers are funny because I sometimes say, “Come on, the guy’s not that good,” and I’m talking about one of the 100 best players in the country.
- Former Mississippi State guard Andersson Garcia is staying in the SEC, joining Buzz Williams’s program down in College Station.
Other transfer bits:
- Baylor Scheierman is down to Arkansas, Clemson, Creighton, Duke, and Nebraska, and he’s made it about explicitly clear that this is about money, or so are the reports. (Hilarious line from Kentucky waterboy Jack Pilgrim earlier today saying dealing with NIL demands is “not a road UK will go down.” Do the boosters prefer it more under the table, Jack? Who’s your audience here?) Scheierman might stay in the NBA draft, too.
- Kevin McCullar is down to Kansas and Gonzaga if he returns to school. The NBA, Kansas, and Gonzaga is a pretty good list of three options, in my opinion.
For those wondering, roughly half the five-stars currently in the portal have committed. So to put a completion percentage on this process, that’s roughly where we’re at. June 1st is the deadline for players to withdraw from the NBA Draft if they want to maintain college eligibility.
For those also wondering, yes, recruiting is ongoing (lot of 2023 commitments over the weekend), but we’re not covering that in any depth because, like the college football transfer portal, we don’t have the bandwidth or a doable route to cover it efficiently. Also, we don’t know anything about most recruits. We’ve already watched these transfers a good amount. One day. Maybe.
Finally, on the Iowa State side, Xavier Foster is transferring to SMU.
Kyle Schwarber Explodes
No, not an Angel Hernandez thing. Kyle Schwarber exploded in the other way over the weekend, homering thrice in these last two days, including twice last night on Sunday Night Baseball. Unfortunately for Schwarber, his Phillies lost last night, and also on Friday, dropping two of three to the Mets and giving back some of the momentum they’d accrued sweeping the Rockies. It’s early, but it doesn’t feel early in the NL East. The Phillies host the Rangers beginning tomorrow. The Mets host Atlanta beginning tonight.
Speaking of Texas and Atlanta, the Rangers took two of three from the defending champs this weekend, with Corey Seager exacting some personal NLCS revenge with home runs on Friday and Saturday.
The Yankees keep winning, taking three in Kansas City to extend their win streak to nine. Their sweeps have been of the Guardians, Orioles, and Royals over the stretch, which isn’t exactly the most challenging stretch, but winning nine straight in the Majors is nothing small, and the Yankees are hot. Aaron Judge, who homered twice yesterday and once on Friday, is vaccinated and available tonight in Toronto, ending speculation about his vaccination status heading into the series. The Royals are in the midst of a rain makeup in St. Louis as this is written. They’ll host the Cardinals for two more tomorrow and Wednesday.
It was a mixed bag of a weekend for the Cardinals, who split four games with the Diamondbacks. Not a lot to write home about, but Harrison Bader got his first home run of the year yesterday and reached base in seven of fifteen plate appearances over the set. The Diamondbacks are in Miami beginning tonight.
The Marlins continue to not back down, taking their first two against Seattle to stretch a winning streak to seven before losing yesterday. Elieser Hernandez was strong on Friday, striking out five over five innings of work. His ERA’s 5.75 but his xERA’s 3.49 after four starts and just north of twenty innings of work. Not bad for your fifth starter. The Mariners now make their first trip to Houston of the year.
It was a tough visit to Toronto for the Astros, who won on Friday but scored just three runs over the next two days, dropping the pair of games by one apiece. Kevin Gausman struck out ten across seven shutout innings yesterday. He’s now thrown 31 and two-thirds, he’s struck out 41, he’s walked none, his FIP is 0.50, his xERA is 2.64, and his fWAR is 1.9. Not quite the current MLB fWAR leader (Manny Machado’s been on one), but up there, and leading pitchers by a wide margin.
It’s a bummer of a year for the Nationals, but they had a good weekend out west, taking two of three from San Francisco and receiving eight hits from Victor Robles. Robles has looked like a bust these last two years after excelling in 2019, and his xwOBA is currently the worst of his career, but for one weekend at least, the results were there. The Nats now go to Colorado. The Giants head down to Los Angeles.
The Dodgers took two of three from the Tigers, with Clayton Kershaw great yet again in the lone loss. Seven strikeouts and two walks from the veteran lefty, who’s at a 1.75 xERA after 23 innings pitched. The Tigers now host Pittsburgh for a pair, beginning tomorrow.
It’s rarely fun to be the Pirates, and this weekend was no exception, as they dropped two of three to the Padres to fall further from what were likely their last tastes of .500 baseball for the year. Joe Musgrove turned in his fifth straight quality start to open the season, striking out eight and walking none yesterday. San Diego now stops by Cleveland for a two-game set.
The Guardians broke out of their funk, bouncing back after seven straight losses to sweep the A’s in Oakland. Good end to a bad road trip. The Guardians have yet to win or lose just one in a row. Andrés Giménez led the charge, hitting a grand slam on Friday and recording two doubles in the three games. Part of the Francisco Lindor return, if you’ll recall. The A’s now host the Rays.
Are the Rays good? Probably. They tend to do that. We’re still asking, though, and we’re asking it as well of the Twins, who took two of three in St. Petersburg over the weekend. Kyle Garlick hit two home runs on Saturday and went to the IL this morning with a calf strain. The Twins now visit the Orioles.
More bad times for Baltimore, who—oh wait, hold up, the Orioles took a series from the Red Sox, who are struggling. Jordan Lyles got it done yesterday, striking out six over six one-run innings. Lyles has just 6.0 fWAR on his career despite throwing nearly 1,200 innings so far. That’s about 0.9 fWAR a year if throwing a full season. It pays to be consistently decent. Boston now tries to be decent against the Angels, who come to town tomorrow.
On the topic of the Angels, the Taylor Ward show has continued, with six more hits from the outfielder in the first three games of a four-game set against the White Sox which concludes today. The Sox will go to Wrigley for two tomorrow and Wednesday.
The Cubs avoided the sweep yesterday, but they did drop two to the Brewers, allowing an unexpected power breakout at The Artist Formerly Known as Miller Park. Hunter Renfroe homered three times and increased his fWAR by 0.4, to 0.4. Brewers now host the Reds for three.
The Reds…youch. Three more losses, these in Denver, to drop to 3-19. The Reds are not this bad on paper, but they are playing astoundingly badly. Elias Díaz enjoyed his diet of Cincinnati pitching, homering on Friday and doubling yesterday.
The Cubs Still Haven’t Been Swept Yet
We’ll have more on the Cubs tomorrow, but for all their struggles, they’ve still managed to avoid being swept, taking yesterday’s game on the back of a lockdown performance from Marcus Stroman, who was in need of one like that. Tough series to score runs, so not one from which to judge an offense, but it was ugly to only score four runs in three days, and the back end of the bullpen couldn’t hold it together on Friday or Saturday, resulting in some lopsided finals.
Speaking of that bullpen: In roster news, Mark Leiter Jr. is down to AAA after throwing some relief innings on Friday. Locke St. John replaced him on Saturday but has already been sent back down as rosters contract from 28 men to 26, with Ethan Roberts moving to the IL with shoulder inflammation in the other move.
Joyce and Concerns
Just kidding, no concerns. Ben Joyce threw gas for Tennessee on Saturday, hitting 105.5 mph on an evidently-reputable Yakker Tech system in the Volunteers’ 8-6 loss to Auburn. It was just Tennessee’s second loss of the SEC season, and the Vols did win the series, two games to one.
Elsewhere around the college game:
- Georgia Tech grabbed two of three from Miami. Big result for the Yellow Jackets.
- Virginia Tech grabbed the road series from Virginia, continuing to impress and move towards hosting a Regional or even a Super Regional.
- Oklahoma State swept Texas in Austin, scoring nearly eleven runs per game and reasserting themselves as best in the Big 12.
- LSU won the series over Georgia, two games to one.
- Florida State took two straight from TCU. No third game finished there due to rain.
- Texas A&M took the series over Vanderbilt on the road, two games to one.
- Coastal Carolina took a road set from Georgia Southern, making a little noise in the Sun Belt.
***
Today/tonight’s best viewing (my preference, anyway), second screen in italics:
- 12:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series at Dover, Rain Makeup (FS1)
- 1:15 PM EDT: Royals @ Cardinals, Greinke vs. Matz (Regional TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Yankees @ Blue Jays, Montgomery vs. Stripling (Regional TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Mets, Fried vs. Bassitt (Regional TV)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Blues @ Wild (ESPN)
- 10:00 PM EDT: Mavericks @ Suns (TNT)
