The Padres closed out the Mets, with Joe Musgrove playing hero, and while there’s plenty to say about the 2022 New York Mets season, there isn’t enough time right now. We’ll leave that to those who said it yesterday.
Onto the four Division Series, with looks from FanGraphs’s Depth Charts, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, and the implications we receive from betting markets.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Depth Charts: 54.2% Atlanta
ZiPS: 57.8% Atlanta
Betting Markets: 64.6% Atlanta
This is a wide spread for a series in terms of probabilities. Bettors are high on Atlanta, and they are low on Philadelphia, and to a noteworthy extent.
One explanation that would work in the other direction would be that the projection systems don’t adequately account for how Spencer Strider, a possible Game 3 or 4 starter, will be hampered by an oblique injury we can’t imagine is fully healed. But again, that would work in the other direction. We know that, these objective systems don’t, this makes the whole thing weirder.
I will say: The Phillies only being able to use Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in one start each (unless they throw Wheeler in Game 5 on short rest after he missed time in August and September) is a disadvantage. It puts a lot of weight on Ranger Suárez’s shoulders, not necessarily to win Game 1, but to save bullpen today and then in Game 5 to go out there and win. Suárez is good—he’s got a 3.87 FIP, certainly respectable—but he’s a step behind Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton, and he’s a big step behind Max Fried (or Strider, if he’s himself). From there, it gets even worse, with Kyle Gibson and Bailey Falter the options for Game 4. Would they twist the bullpen on its head and have Zach Eflin open? It’s a lot less favorable to do that with David Robertson now out with a calf injury.
So, yes. Maybe the markets are onto something here. But with Wheeler and Nola pitching Games 2 and 3 and Strider a suspicious inclusion on the NLDS roster, markets may be overweighting Games 1, 4, and 5. Or, more scarily for the South, markets may be underweighting the possibility the Phillies will steal one this afternoon.
Seattle @ Houston
Depth Charts: 58.9% Houston
ZiPS: 59.4% Houston
Betting Markets: 69.2% Houston
Another big gap here, and a similar phenomenon where the Wild Card Series schedule has the Astros staring down a scary situation if they don’t take care of business in Game 1. I would not want to face Luis Castillo in Game 2 down a game already, and having lost home field advantage. That does not sound enjoyable.
One thing I didn’t personally catch when the postseason schedule was released was the day off between Games 1 and 2 of each ALDS. This is going to make the Mariners (and the Guardians) rather well-rested. The Astros have a big advantage whenever Justin Verlander’s on the mound, but it’s not big enough to outweigh how close the other three games are on paper. Seattle has some starting pitching depth, after all. Seattle has one of the best rotations in the postseason.
Cleveland @ New York (AL)
Depth Charts: 59.8% New York
ZiPS: 57.1% New York
Betting Markets: 65.5% New York
Again with the lean towards the favorite.
It’s interesting when ZiPS is more cautious on a favorite than Depth Charts, because I believe Depth Charts doesn’t account for starting pitcher matchups. What does that mean? Cleveland’s in a good spot when Shane Bieber’s on the mound, though to be fair, the schedule *is* condensed enough that Bieber would be on short rest were he to start a potential Game 5.
The deal with the Yankees is that behind Gerrit Cole, it’s hard to trust anyone, and Cole didn’t have his best year. Luis Severino hasn’t thrown much these past few years. Nestor Cortes is getting up there in innings, by his own standards. Both those guys had ERA’s well outpace their FIP’s.
The deal with the Yankees as well, though, is that the lineup is legitimately stacked. It is a very, very good lineup. This doesn’t change as much day-to-day as starting pitchers, and that makes it easy to overlook. The Yankees have a phenomenal offense, and the Guardians have their pieces, but they don’t have the same depth.
If the Guardians win Game 1, the Yankees are in a terrible position. That’s the refrain in all of these series, thanks to the Wild Card Series shifting starting pitching. If the Yankees win tonight, the Guardians are about as reliant on Shane Bieber as a baseball team can be on one single player. It’s a fun matchup, that way.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Depth Charts: 53.9% Los Angeles
ZiPS: 59.9% Los Angeles
Betting Markets: 67.0% Los Angeles
A similar story here, though that Depth Charts/ZiPS gap is interesting. My best figuring on this is that Depth Charts doesn’t know Bob Melvin and the Padres have opted to start Mike Clevinger in Game 1 (and a possible Game 5) rather than Sean Manaea. It’s a weird decision. Clevinger is set to have a huge impact on this series, and Depth Charts does not adequately reflect that, being calibrated to some extent for the Clevinger/Manaea call but not being calibrated for how much less important Yu Darvish and Blake Snell and Musgrove will be (it does this, I think, because they’ll be very important again if the Padres do make the NLCS).
What I think betting markets underestimate is the weakness of the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Yes, the offense is sensational. The lineup is unlike any other in the game, dwarfing even that of the Yankees. But Julio Urías is not quite a world caliber ace, and Tony Gonsolin forces the team to rely heavily on its bullpen when he starts (a bullpen that has lots of assets and is also in some disarray), and Tyler Anderson’s ERA has a lot of numbers around it making it look like a mirage (the same is true of Gonsolin). Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, draws Yu Darvish in Game 2, with the franchise evidently deciding they like Urías better to lock down a win. That, or they’re really not worrying about Clevinger/Manaea, opting to match strength against strength. The result of that does leave them better-equipped for Game 2 than all three other favorites, but they, like the rest, need to take care of business in Game 1 or they’re going to be looking a tough opposing starting pitching situation in the eye.
Housekeeping
We’ll have more on Iowa State and the Packers tomorrow (our Week 6 recap for college football can be found here). We can only hide for so long. We’re also pushing this year’s Gelo launch back at least a day, so apologies to any NHL fans we’re disappointing. This should be a good catch-up week for us, on both notes and our posted bets, where we missed both college football futures and soccer futures last week.
With that, here’s what we’re thinking for our betting schedule for the next few days:
- Wednesday: MLB Futures, NHL Futures, CFB Futures x2
- Thursday: MLB Futures, NFL Futures
- Friday: MLB Futures, Soccer Futures x2
As always, subject to change, but that’s the roadmap at the moment. The notes should be full again tomorrow, but that too is subject to change.
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Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 1:07 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Atlanta, Suárez vs. Fried (FOX)
- 3:37 PM EDT: Seattle @ Houston, Gilbert vs. Verlander (TBS)
- 7:37 PM EDT: Cleveland @ New York (AL), Quantrill vs. Cole (TBS)
- 9:37 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Clevinger vs. Urías (FS1)
