An argument against the 4-team College Football Playoff has sometimes been that the teams involved are always the same. This is the tenth year of the 4-team format, and we’ve seen just 15 different teams make the cut, or an average of 1.5 new teams per year. A hope some harbor for the 12-team playoff is that it will introduce more variety to the mix.
To some extent, this is definitionally going to be the case. If the 12-team playoff lasts ten years, we’ll see far more than 15 different teams involved. But of the final four teams? We might actually see less variety, not more.
College football is a dynastic sport. It takes a long time to get good, and while it’s hard to stay good, it’s also rare to see a program fall off quickly. Even Clemson’s slide from dominance to the edge of the top 25 began with two national championship appearances going increasingly poorly. It’s hard to get good fast, and it’s hard to get bad fast. College football is a dynastic sport.
It is not hard, though, to lose an individual game. We live in a chalky period of college football history, and still, upsets are all around us. Of this season’s four playoff participants, only one—Michigan—was never under serious threat by anyone other than a fellow playoff contender. Looking back further, the list of disastrous losses by national title hopefuls is long and illustrious.
Where are we going with all this?
A twelve-team bracket may funnel more teams to the top than the old 4-team format.
Partly by letting good teams with bad losses into the field.
Let’s look at FCS semifinalists over the last ten seasons:
| Team | Appearances |
| North Dakota State | 9 |
| South Dakota State | 6 |
| James Madison | 5 |
| Sam Houston | 4 |
| Montana State | 3 |
| Eastern Washington | 2 |
| Albany | 1 |
| Delaware | 1 |
| Illinois State | 1 |
| Incarnate Word | 1 |
| Jacksonville State | 1 |
| Maine | 1 |
| Montana | 1 |
| New Hampshire | 1 |
| Richmond | 1 |
| Weber State | 1 |
| Youngstown State | 1 |
That’s only 17 teams. Of those 17, three took themselves out of the FCS at some point over the decade, and at least one didn’t play one year because of Covid. Had especially James Madison stayed in the FCS universe, it’s possible—likely, even—that the number here would be lower than 17. The FCS’s 24-team format (16 in the 2020–21 season) has not produced the variety 12-team playoff supporters hope.
Narrowing the scope to the national championship game itself, we’ve seen nine different teams reach the FCS championship over the last nine playoffs, and eight reach the College Football Playoff championship. We’ll get a ninth in the CFP this year, thanks to Texas playing Washington, and we could get a tenth if Michigan beats Alabama. We could also get a tenth at the FCS level if Montana beats North Dakota State, or if South Dakota State loses to Albany. Again, three of these ten FCS teams—JMU, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston—have all now left the FCS. Had they stayed, it’s possible the variety number could be even lower.
Part of the issue is how easy it is to make a larger playoff field. North Dakota State lost three regular season games. The consequence? A trio of road games, the third of which finds them about a tossup to make the national championship. When you expand the funnel, you don’t only get new teams. You get some of the old teams on their down years. Once in the field, those power players have an opportunity to bounce back.
The FCS and the FBS aren’t perfect equivalents, and you could argue the FCS is more stratified at the top. South Dakota State is around a 20-point favorite tonight in the FCS semifinals. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a line like that in the College Football Playoff. But if you’re hoping the 12-team format will introduce new characters to college football’s biggest moments, you might want to temper those expectations. From what the FCS tells us, there’s an equal chance the opposite will happen.
The FCS Semifinals, and the Notion of Uncertainty
We have a pretty good idea of how South Dakota State and North Dakota State compare to one another. They played head-to-head, and they each played seven other games against MVFC foes. They’ve each played Montana State. We have a lot of comparable data points against which to compare these teams. Their opponents? Much less data. Albany, who plays SDSU tonight, hasn’t yet played an MVFC opponent this year. Until last week, SDSU hadn’t played anyone from Albany’s CAA. They do now have a common opponent in Villanova, but it’s just one. The situation is similar but a little lesser tomorrow between North Dakota State and Montana.
Where we’re going with this one is that we’re very confident South Dakota State is better than North Dakota State, but we have a very poor idea where Albany and Montana fall relative to the pair. That might make surprises more likely than they’d otherwise be.
Albany has been a force this playoff season, blowing out Richmond and beating Idaho late at night in the Kibbie Dome. They’ve won seven straight, all by more than seven points, and while the CAA isn’t a top FCS league right now, it’s also far from the bottom. The game will have kicked by the time you read this, but the point here is that Albany is not a bad team. If South Dakota State wallops them, as the expectation says they will, this will be more a reflection on just how good the Jacks are than anything necessarily negative about the Great Danes.
Tomorrow’s game is anybody’s guess. North Dakota State has been playing much, much better of late, and Montana played what we believe was its worst game in months last weekend (though like Albany against the MVFC, we don’t have a great idea how Furman stacked up within Montana’s Big Sky sphere). It’s supposed to be a little cold, but nothing unseasonable, and without much wind. Fairly neutral weather. Betting markets briefly favored the Bison in the middle of the week, but aside from that, they’ve narrowly stuck with the Griz. NDSU’s head coach has announced he’s leaving for an assistant job at USC, but he’s still coaching the team through these playoffs, so the impact of his departure is hard to parse, and probably minimal. It is really, really hard to separate these two teams on paper.
We will say, though: Montana smoked Montana State to end the regular season, and Montana State had North Dakota State beat until both its quarterbacks came up injured. Montana State also played South Dakota State close in Brookings. This is a small sample of data points, but we understand why bettors like the Griz more than Movelor, which has NDSU favored by a pair.
Big-Time College Basketball
Games this weekend between realistic national title hopefuls:
- Tonight, 10:00 PM EST: UConn vs. Gonzaga (in Seattle)
- Tomorrow, 4:30 PM EST: Arizona vs. Purdue (in Indianapolis)
Other great nonconference games:
- Kentucky vs. UNC
- Alabama at Creighton
- Baylor vs. Michigan State
- UCLA vs. Ohio State
- Texas A&M vs. Houston
This list is not exhaustive.
College basketball is sometimes a little too random for its own good, but in these two weeks of nonconference finales, we’re going to learn a lot. Gonzaga is fringy, but UConn, Arizona, and Purdue are all definitively among the country’s top teams, and there are a lot of power conference contenders in the second group of games. Where the teams involved this weekend stand:
- This is a tougher opponent for Arizona than Duke was on the road. How high is the Wildcat median, and how does Arizona’s approach work against a team as experienced as Purdue?
- Gonzaga is stinging but far from sunk. This is their last game against a power conference team until February, though, when they play Kentucky (and who knows where Kentucky will be by then). Perception always matters for the Zags when it comes to seeding, because they have fewer data points against other top teams. What kind of closing-ish argument do they make?
- UNC’s off to a good start, and it’s a program that was in need of one after the way last year ended. They’ve still got two tough games before really getting into ACC play, though, and depending how you read each opponent, the risk of losing both is that the Tar Heels could come out of the nonconference season just 1–4 against NCAA Tournament teams. Things are going well, but that isn’t a done deal.
- Kentucky and UCLA are both a little in the wilderness, though for UCLA that was more expected. Each could really use a win like this.
- Michigan State and Ohio State are both full-on reeling, with Ohio State’s season going fine but their last game an ugly collapse, while Michigan State’s season is not going fine. Michigan State could especially use the big win, but each is in a troubling spot.
- Houston is, most likely, good enough to win a national championship. Is Baylor? The Bears play Duke on Wednesday, so this isn’t the end of the nonconference tests, but a win would put them that much closer to getting to the new year undefeated.
- Finally, Texas A&M. Weird team, Texas A&M. They haven’t been playing badly—they’ve got wins over Iowa State and Ohio State, plus SMU—but they’ve missed a lot of opportunities lately. This is a neutral-site game, but it’s in Houston. Tough test; big opportunity.
Redshirt Resolution
The NCAA has compromised on the two-time transfer situation in the wake of this week’s restraining order and the accompanying uncertainty. The bottom line is that this year, all transfers can play, even after the 14-day period initially prescribed by the West Virginia judge expires. There’s no longer a risk of a transfer playing, the courts reversing course, and the transfer losing a year of eligibility over just one or two game’s worth of minutes.
Pet Causes This Weekend
The Packers are suddenly in a rough spot, enjoying no margin for error and a lower ceiling on their regular season hopes. The Bucs have won two straight, one over a team who beat the Packers, and while the game’s at Lambeau, it’s not looking like weather will be a home-field advantage. A lot to gain, but a lot to lose.
The Bulls are looking to make it two in a row over the Heat tomorrow night. Big to get last night’s win. Coby White keeps playing great basketball, and Ayo Dosunmu had a good game.
The Blackhawks got rocked last night in Seattle, and now they’re headed home to host the Canucks on Sunday. The Canucks are good. Are they good far from Vancouver, though?
Iowa State’s hosting Florida A&M on Sunday. Shouldn’t be much of note there.
Not a game, but: We’re aiming to have more on Rocco Becht, Hunter Dekkers, and J.J. Kohl early next week. More broadly, we’re due for a college football transfer portal check-in. There’s some Movelor adjusting we’re hoping to do regarding transfers this offseason.
We Haven’t Won a Bet Since…
We had the under last night in Raiders/Chargers, so that was fun. We haven’t won a bet since Saturday, when we hit two college football plays. Go Lobos tonight. Rivalry game.
