Ok, here’s the deal with the Cubs: The current roster is terrible. As things stand, FanGraphs’s Depth Charts has the team 19 WAR behind the Padres, 13 WAR behind the Cardinals, and nine or ten WAR behind the Brewers. That is not playoff contention without a whole lot of overperformance, and for as much as we can say, “Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner had great years and Seiya Suzuki should be even more comfortable this season,” the reality is that the Cardinals have eight position players at that level or better, and one of them is now Willson Contreras. Even with Jameson Taillon acquired, the Cubs have a rotation worse than every NL team’s but the Pirates’, Nationals’, and Rockies’. Expectations should be medium for the bullpen. This is a team that either needs five or six guys to emerge out of virtually nowhere or it’s a team that’s going to have 81 wins as its ceiling unless it makes legitimately gigantic moves.
Will the Cubs make gigantic moves? I’m not sure. I think they’ll make big ones—they really don’t seem to want to pour any water on the notion that they’ll make at least one legitimately big move this offseason (though Dansby Swanson may qualify as “big” under our working definition, and…more on that below)—but there is radio silence on them with all the real big names.
The remaining potential acquisitions for the Cubs sound to be the following:
- Sean Murphy, for whom the Cubs would need to trade.
- Carlos Correa, whom the Yankees are reportedly pursuing, in addition to the Twins and Giants and perhaps others?
- Kodai Senga, whom many teams are pursuing.
- Dansby Swanson, whom Atlanta is reportedly not pursuing but whom the Giants or Yankees or Twins or many others could pursue.
- Corey Kluber.
- Christian Vázquez.
- Theoretically any number of other players, especially pitchers and Justin Turner, but I haven’t heard much on any of those. I’m thinking Ross Stripling and Chris Bassitt here, to name names. None of these guys are even as good as Christian Vázquez on paper. These are role players.
Of those names, I would say only the first four and Carlos Rodón (about whom there’s no Cubs smoke) would qualify as “big.” The others would be small-to-medium, but looking at the Cubs roster, could still really help. The rotation, as mentioned, is atrocious on paper. First base and the designated hitter position are ridiculously bad. We only have half a catcher. We still need to construct a bullpen, and it’s unlikely we’ll have as good of luck at that as we did last year. Small-to-medium pickups in any of those arenas would make a big difference.
But how big of a difference would every pickup make?
It’s not as simple as looking at each player’s projected WAR, because different players generate different ripples when dropped into the Cubs’ current pool. Say the Cubs do trade for Murphy. Yan Gomes’s projected value immediately drops, or Murphy isn’t as valuable as he’s projected to be on the A’s because he’s DH-ing a lot more. Say the Cubs sign Correa. Nico Hoerner moves to second or third, Patrick Wisdom maybe moves to first base, Hoerner’s value decreases notably and Wisdom’s gets even closer to replacement level. The most direct input is something like a Murphy deal that includes Nick Madrigal (I don’t know if the A’s would take this, but they’ve reportedly been interested in MLB players and they’d certainly be buying cheap) and is accompanied by a Swanson signing. If you say that halves Yan Gomes’s projected WAR and eliminates P.J. Higgins and Miguel Amaya from the conversation, while slotting Swanson in at second at full value, you only net four or five wins. That’s two big pickups, and it only halves the gap we’re trying to erase in full. It’s going to take a lot of action if the 2023 Cubs are going to be a contender.
There are two questions that derive from all of this.
The first is, of course, what’s going to happen. If I had to guess, the Cubs will not trade for Murphy, because they want to keep the farm system well-stocked (its strength is in the diversity of its assets), but they will get someone like Vázquez or one of the Blue Jays’ catchers to platoon with Gomes. They’ll let someone else pay Carlos Correa from now until the seas swallow Florida, but they’ll sign Swanson, keeping their implicit promise. They will add Kluber and a handful of bullpen pieces and one more bench player. With the Cardinals making more moves as well, they will enter the season as a hearty underdog behind the Cards, an underdog very reliant upon young players breaking out and breaking through and also one or more of St. Louis, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and San Diego underperforming. They could get to being neck and neck with the Brewers, but if they aren’t getting Correa and/or Murphy and then a lot more, they’re very far away on paper.
The second question is how we got to this spot. I don’t think spending is the biggest problem, personally. The payroll’s been lower the last couple years, but the Cubs are not the Pirates. I think Tom Ricketts is dishonest about the Cubs’ financial situation and is misleading fans, but with a middle-of-the-road payroll, you should be a middle-of-the-road team, and that is something the Cubs are not. The real problem is that the Cubs’ farm system dried up, and not just because a lot of it got traded away and the draft picks were no longer in the top ten. The Cubs got good in large part by drafting really, really well and not messing those draft picks up. It was a string of hits, and it obscured what’s been a disappointing developmental system. Maybe this is changing, maybe Christopher Morel’s for real, maybe we’re about to see the farm system turn on the jets, and hopefully that’s all exactly what’s happening. But that is how we’ve gotten to this point. The Cubs completely butchered their development of young MLB players, they were never great in the minors to begin with, and if you’re going to operate that way, you need to spend like Steve Cohen if you’re going to be a title contender. If I was Tom Ricketts, I’d want to spend like Steve Cohen, but I’d also admittedly be pissed that so many great rookies failed to be great established players. I wouldn’t lie through my teeth about money and push Kyle Schwarber out the door, but I’d want my organization to be functional developmentally. That’s essential. And it’s hopefully where this is headed, but that’s probably still at least a couple years away. That’s how we got here.
The Mets’ Nimmo Deal Is a Steal
The Mets did sign Brandon Nimmo for eight years, and that is a lot of years for a 30-year-old. They also got him for a projected $6.2M/WAR or thereabouts, if he meets the expectations we’re seeing at Roster Resource and ages normally from there.
Quietly a very, very good signing. Majorly impacts the NL East and the MLB scene as a whole. The Mets are going to be great again. Great enough to make you wonder if Atlanta’s about to make a big move to keep up.
Cy-Hawk Gone Wrong
Woof.
And I didn’t even realize Kris Murray was going to be out.
Iowa State ate it hard against Iowa last night, torn apart by Filip Rebraca in the paint. The defense forced enough turnovers to keep the final margin respectable enough, but it was an ugly, ugly night, and while we’ve said before that teams who play messy, like Iowa State does, look especially bad in losses, it was a disappointing effort. Not the kind of thing that says too much over the long term—we’re a bubble team aimed at the right side of the bubble, just as we were—but a disappointment nonetheless, because some games are of comparable importance to that long term.
This concludes the competitive stretch of the pre-conference schedule. The next three games are all buy games at home, and while the Cyclones need to show up, it’s probable that they will. Avoid disaster these next three and enter Big 12 play (with a trip to Mizzou also remaining in the Big 12/SEC Challenge) at 10-2.
What do the Cyclones need to make the tournament? Currently, the median projection on KenPom is to finish the regular season at 17-14, with a 7-11 conference mark that would put the guys at ninth in the Big 12, so let’s call it 17-15 after we assume a first round conference tournament exit. Iowa State probably needs to steal one more, then, because the closer you are to .500, the weirder the committee gets. 18-14 or 18-15. It ultimately depends so much on what everyone is doing around them, but barring disaster these next few nights, there’s no opportunity remaining for a single bad loss, and with most likely three likely NCAA Tournament teams and three likely bubble teams on the nonconference schedule, nothing should hold State back there, either. It’s going to be a fairly conventional résumé, so as long as the margins are within reason (so NET and KenPom ratings stay fine) and the overall win-loss record isn’t unsightly, Iowa State should get in.
Who are the remaining eleven wins? In nine games, Iowa State’s currently a KenPom favorite: These three buy games plus home dates against Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. That means they need to pick off two more wins, with the best opportunities, per KenPom, the visit from Baylor and the hypothetical Big 12 Tournament opener against…somebody (KenPom’s got four teams tying for 5th-8th right now). Really, we don’t need to choose. There are roughly ten games where Iowa State’s between a 30% and 49%-probable winner. What the focus should be, if we’re measuring, is winning these next three and then starting Big 12 play 1-2. Do all that and we’ll be in a solid spot, still.
Army vs. Navy, FCS Quarterfinals
The weekend after the conference championship weekend is a great one for a certain type of college football fan. It’s not just the type of fan who loves college football. It’s narrower than that. It’s the fan who loves college football top-to-bottom. The one who loves the history and loves the sport and knows what Mount Union is.
The Army/Navy game is about a tossup, and therefore should be a heck of a game of football. Those option offenses going against each other are fun to watch. Such machines, not in terms of being overpowering but in the way there are so many moving parts visibly working together. The timing is something else. Not a great year for either team, but that’s never mattered before.
At the FCS level, we might not get any good ones. North Dakota State and South Dakota State are each three-score favorites right now, while Sacramento State and Montana State are clear picks to win against Incarnate Word and William & Mary. There’s some uncertainty about those games (that’s what’s keeping them close), which mostly comes back to the question of how good the Big Sky is compared to the Southland (UIW) and the CAA (W&M), but it would be a big surprise to see a single surprise this weekend, at least in my opinion. Still: Fun stadiums, high stakes, outdoor football in Montana and South Dakota in December…that’s a good recipe. Plus North Dakota State is going to do obscene things with fullbacks. What a weekend for the fullback position.
Who Do the Packers Care About This Weekend?
First of all, what a performance by Baker Mayfield last night (and by Sean McVay, and the Rams staff as a whole). Real death blow for the Raiders, one would assume, maybe even as a concept in their current iteration. You can’t be taken seriously if you’re losing games like that and it’s mostly unsurprising.
Looking at this weekend, I’m a little curious to see what Desmond Ridder does in Atlanta and I’m a lot curious how the Ravens will look with Tyler Huntley in for Lamar Jackson. Mostly, though, the focus is on the door staying cracked open enough to have a little bit of Packers hope. Just a tiny bit, please.
Ostensibly, the relevant teams in the playoff race are all the teams between the Cowboys and the Packers, but at this stage, really, we don’t need to worry about the Lions. Not because the Lions are bad or because the Lions won’t finish ahead of the Packers, but because the Packers control their fate with that one. They still play the Lions one more time.
The three, then, are the Giants, Seahawks, and Commanders, and of those three, only the Giants and Seahawks play this week. Both games are on Sunday, the Giants hosting the Eagles and the Seahawks hosting the Panthers, I’m confused about why the Seahawks/Panthers line is only four points but it’s close enough to offer some shred of hope. Entering the weekend, FPI’s got the Pack with a 5.7% playoff chance, and that’s with it giving Seattle a 69.2% chance of picking up this coming win. The Panthers could really help us out here.
Catching Up on the Bulls
My basic conception of the Bulls is that they have a pair of sidekicks each tasked with being the go-to guy, and that the supporting cast isn’t what it needs to be for the team to be good. Pretty direct line from there to mediocrity, which appears to be what we’ve been seeing. Of course, admittedly very out of the loop, we’re trying to get back into the loop, but someone correct me if I’m missing something about this team. It continues to tread water. That’s all there seems to be to say after almost a third of the season.
Croatia Came Through
Big hit for our World Cup futures this morning, with Croatia cashing in at 9-to-1 to likely lock us into profitability for the tournament. We’re in on England to win tomorrow, and we have Morocco to win as well but we do have a play on Portugal to win it all, so that one’s a win-win and a lose-lose.
With our 50-to-1 future from earlier on Croatia to win it all, the question now is going to be how much of our all-time deficit we can carve off. We’re about 96 units from being back even all-time, so even the ideal situation (Croatia over Morocco in the final, or Croatia over England after England beats Morocco) wouldn’t get us back, which means we’ll probably be working some hedges. We’re getting closer. Definitely getting closer.
We Had a Gelo Issue
We found an issue with Gelo, so our apologies for that. It’s been fixed, and ratings have been updated to account for last night’s games.
**
Viewing schedule for the weekend:
College Basketball of National Interest (and Iowa State)
- Friday, 9:00 PM EST: Washington @ Gonzaga (ROOT+)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Penn State @ Illinois (BTN)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Yale @ Kentucky (SECN)
- Saturday, 2:15 PM EST: Purdue @ Nebraska (BTN)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: San Diego State vs. Saint Mary’s (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: Alabama @ Houston (ABC)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: Xavier @ Cincinnati (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EST: Memphis vs. Auburn (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 5:15 PM EST: Kansas @ Missouri (ESPN)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: UAB @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 6:30 PM EST: Arizona vs. Indiana (FOX)
- Sunday, 2:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State vs. Virginia Tech (ESPN2)
- Sunday, 4:30 PM EST: Tennessee vs. Maryland (FS1)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: McNeese @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 6:30 PM EST: Wisconsin @ Iowa (BTN)
- Sunday, 6:30 PM EST: Seton Hall @ Rutgers (FS1)
College Football
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Samford @ North Dakota State (ESPN2)
- Friday, 10:15 PM EST: William & Mary @ Montana State (ESPN2)
- Friday, 10:30 PM EST: Incarnate Word @ Sacramento State (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Holy Cross @ South Dakota State (ESPN)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: Army vs. Navy (CBS)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Heisman Trophy Presentation (ESPN)
NHL, Best Game Each Day
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: New York Islanders @ New Jersey (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Calgary @ Toronto (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 8:00 PM EST: Boston @ Vegas (NHLN)
NBA, Best Game Each Day Plus the Bulls
- Friday, 10:00 PM EST: Milwaukee @ Dallas (ESPN)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Dallas @ Bulls
- Saturday, 8:30 PM EST: Boston @ Golden State (ABC)
- Sunday, 3:30 PM EST: Phoenix @ New Orleans
- Sunday, 6:30 PM EST: Bulls @ Atlanta
NFL, Playoff-Relevant Football
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: New York Jets @ Buffalo (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Cleveland @ Cincinnati (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ Detroit (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Jacksonville @ Tennessee (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Philadelphia @ New York Giants (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:05 PM EST: Kansas City @ Denver (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: Carolina @ Seattle (FOX)
- Sunday, 8:20 PM EST: Miami @ Los Angeles Chargers (NBC)
World Cup
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Morocco vs. Portugal (FOX)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: England vs. France (FOX)
EFL Championship, Best Game in Each Open Viewing Window
- Saturday, 7:00 AM EST: Preston @ Blackburn (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 8:00 AM EST: Burnley @ Queens Park Rangers (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 10:00 AM EST: Hull @ Watford
