The Stanley Cup Finals start tonight, ending a layoff of—what has it been, four days? This is an odd thing about both Finals and the World Series. The playoffs are so whittled down by their end that what was once a smorgasbord is now a small plate. If the matchup’s bad, it feels like getting out of bed after an early evening nap. Is it really worth it to wake back up?
With this matchup, it is, or at least it seems that way for people who really enjoy and follow hockey. For those of us who follow hockey from a distance, it’s not all that compelling. Tampa Bay and Denver have packed a good amount of history into their time in the league, but neither’s an historic franchise, neither plays in a loud market, neither has a star that breaks through into mainstream sports consciousness, and while Denver’s more a hockey place than, say, Kansas City, neither really plays in a hockey town.
For those who follow the sport, though, what a great Finals. The two best teams, as it turns out.
Entering the playoffs, it did not seem these were the two best teams. The Avalanche were rather widely recognized as the best, but the Lightning were behind the Panthers in the apparatus, and probably some others as well. The Lightning were part of the pack, and they have since separated themselves from that pack. This is something that can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are very long.
Hockey is unique in this regard. While the NBA Playoffs are also a season unto themselves, you know who’s good coming in. Changes are more marginal, and more within the realm of expectations. Not that it was outside reasonable thought that the Lightning turned out to be this good—they’ve won the last two Cups, this is the best franchise in the sport right now. But the Rangers? They turned out to be pretty good. The Flames? They turned out to be worse than was thought.
This has been illustrated to me, particularly, though Gelo’s rises and falls. Because Gelo reacts so quickly to incoming results, and because it only really considers margin, it was blown away in the Conference Finals by both teams. This wouldn’t have happened had either series gone seven games. It’s something of a particular circumstance. But each team won rather emphatically, in the end, and even FiveThirtyEight’s similar but more conservative model is showing something similar, something neither sort of model would see so firmly were, to get back to the point here, the playoffs not so long. In basketball? Probably not necessary. In hockey? It makes a lot more sense.
Trimming the Hedges
We placed our latest hedge earlier on the series, and to be honest, I’m not sure how we want this to go. Ultimately, we want the Lightning to win, since we have upside on them and downside on the Avalanche, but because we’re doing a single-game hedge tonight, it raises our best-case if Colorado wins tonight. I’m telling myself it’s a win-win. I haven’t run the conditional probabilities.
The Padres Keep Swinging
But Fernando Tatís Jr. keeps not swinging.
The Padres trail the Dodgers by only percentage points at the moment despite Tatís’s continued absence, and while it’ll definitely help if they can get him back (Dan Szymborski quantified how much over at FanGraphs earlier), it also helps that they’ve played this well so far. They don’t know when he’ll be able to swing again, and getting his bat in the lineup instead of Jake Cronenworth’s, most regularly, would be a big lift, but at the same time: This is working, and it’s worth acknowledging that. Don’t galaxy-brain it and say Tatís wouldn’t help the Padres (I mean, it’s fair to ask what the hell happened with last year’s slide, but the dugout blowup with Machado is easy to overblow), but do acknowledge that this current Padres team is pretty good. I’d sure like Jake Cronenworth in the Cubs’ infield.
Kyle Hendricks!
Speaking of the Cubs, good outing from Hendricks last night, which was most welcome given he 1) was gone so long with what we finally learned was shoulder fatigue and 2) has been struggling on the whole for the last year and a half. He’s had great outings in the midst of these bad stretches, which have sometimes been tantalizing, but still—you’d rather have tantalizing than depressing. Hopefully he can get back to being consistently good. Partially because it would help the Cubs, but also because it would be a sad, strange way for him to fade.
It says a lot that I almost neglected to mention Willson Contreras’s huge night at the plate, and what it says is: Willson Contreras has been hitting so well that a two-home run, three-extra base hit night wasn’t surprising. Contreras is 16th in baseball in fWAR right now, and he outpaces the next catcher on the list by more than half a win. Also, his xwOBA’s even better than his wOBA, meaning he’s been a little unlucky. Does this point more towards the Cubs trading him? Yes. But extending him would make a lot of sense, or bringing him back in the offseason after a rental trade. After all, if the best guess is that they sign two big free agents, and if the rotation is fine enough to let sit for 2023 with Stroman/Hendricks/Steele/Kilian/Mills/Alzolay/1-Year-Free-Agent-Like-Miley, why not add Contreras in addition to a shortstop? He doesn’t displace anybody, and a lot of the prospect strength (not to mention Seiya Suzuki and the hopefully-extended-at-some-point Ian Happ) is in the outfield.
I don’t know. I don’t think him leaving Chicago forever is as likely as the narrative holds, but he’s also setting himself up for quite the payday, and it’s fair that the Cubs might not want to sign two guys in or exiting their prime to long-term deals in the same offseason. That does make sense. (But also, what choice do you have? This is how free agency works and your farm system and analytics team aren’t those of the Rays.)
As Caleb Kilian comes up, Nick Madrigal goes on the IL with a groin strain, and down on the farm, the sizzling Pete Crow-Armstrong (top-50 prospect now, possibly the best Cubs prospect now) has a bone bruise on his hand. Really rough year of health for the next wave of guys. Another thing we were fortunate with the last time through (and why free agency is so valuable, CC: Tom Ricketts).
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Cubs host the Padres again tonight, excited to see what Kilian can do as he possibly enters the rotation full-time. Break the losing streak? It’s a lot to ask, but it’d be a great evening if he did.
Beyond that, we’ve got a good matchup in Queens between Corbin Burnes and the Mets, while Shane McClanahan faces Nestor Cortes in the Bronx, Jack Flaherty returns for the Cardinals in St. Louis, and it’s Reid Detmers vs. Tyler Anderson in Chavez Ravine. Also, of course, the hockey game. Good stuff all around.
