We thought the college basketball coaching carousel might be effectively over. We were, in the sense we meant it, wrong.
What’s Next for Jonas Hayes?
It’s fashionable every NIT to say that the program that wins it comes away with momentum. I’m not always sure that’s meaningfully true, and I don’t know enough about Xavier’s experience and transfer likelihood to make much of a stance, but it’s overwhelmingly likely Xavier will be fine, at worst. Good programs don’t just wither away without cause, and there’s no reason to not think Xavier will be fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth next year, at worst, unless Sean Miller really decides upon a rebuild.
The biggest immediate question is whether Jonas Hayes will remain with the program, and it’s one of questionable weight for Xavier (he’s not the head coach, after all) but potentially of large weight elsewhere. Georgia State’s a spot where his name’s been thrown around a lot, and now Butler’s job is open as well, with the school firing LaVall Jordan after a long wait in limbo. It’s odd timing for Butler, which does make me wonder if Hayes is a contender there, but that may just be a coincidence.
Texas A&M Is in Great Shape
The Aggies continue to rise, and it’s hard to see Buzz Williams’s team not spending next year scrapping to be in the SEC’s top ranks. They shouldn’t be expected to compete with Kentucky year-in and year-out, and Arkansas and Alabama and Tennessee each have a head start on them, but a top-four finish is a reasonable goal for this program, and I’d bet on them to get there.
A couple weeks ago, a few friends and I played a game I’ll call the Buzz Williams game. My brother asked, referring to Williams, “There’s probably only 20ish schools that wouldn’t take him if their coach abruptly left, right?” and I responded with my list of the power conference schools I thought shouldn’t take Buzz Williams if forced to choose today between Buzz Williams and the field. The list was as follows:
- Kentucky
- LSU
- North Carolina
- Duke
- Miami
- Villanova
- St. John’s
- UConn
- USC
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Arizona
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Ohio State
- Kansas
- Texas Tech (I called this a maybe at the time—I’ll explain)
If we were expanding to schools beyond the power conferences, the list would mostly look the same, but I’d add Gonzaga and maybe Saint Mary’s. I think Williams would fit anywhere in the Atlantic 10 or Mountain West.
The reasoning for most of these is that they could get a great, great coach if they wanted to. That covers a lot of the list. The reasoning for Miami, USC, St. John’s, Oregon, and LSU is that they have recruiting advantages—geographic and/or institutional (St. John’s is mostly geographic, Oregon and LSU are mostly institutional but in very different ways)—that I think lend themselves to a different style of coach than Williams. The reasoning for Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Saint Mary’s is that there’s something working within each of those programs, unique to the program in question, to which I’d think said program should stick. The reasoning for Indiana not being on the list is that I think Williams would be a strong fit there, in a situation that’s not really that different from A&M if you’re willing to look past history: Each school has willing resources at its disposal, each school desperately wants to be good, neither school has natural recruiting heavyweight status right now but each can recruit well because of the reasons listed earlier in this sentence.
To be clear, I’m not saying every school not on this list should fire their coach if Williams is magically up for their job. I’d take Ed Cooley over Buzz Williams at Providence, and Chris Beard over Buzz Williams at Texas. This is Williams vs. The Field, not Williams vs. The Current Coach. But that’s my list, and it’s a game we’ll probably play with coaches and other figures across other sports in the months to come, so it’s nice to have a name for the game.
The Final Four Is This Weekend
Blogging about the NIT really shifts your focus.
There isn’t much I can say about tomorrow night’s games that hasn’t already been said elsewhere, except that I think UNC/Duke might hinge fairly simply on just how many threes UNC makes. They’re kind of a Steph Curry Davidson all of a sudden, meaning they’re just trying to out-make their opponent in this instance. I’m curious how much more significantly Villanova’s narrow rotation is affected by Justin Moore’s injury than a team with a deeper bench would be. That’s the thing that I think takes that game from two or three points up into the mid-single digits or higher. Not a double-digit spread by any stretch, though.
Craig Kimbrel, Jacob deGrom
The White Sox traded Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in exchange for A.J. Pollock, straight-up, in a video game-like move in its simplicity and timing that makes sense for everyone involved. Pollock will be leaned on more in this lineup than he would have been in L.A.; Kimbrel will be a closer, which is the right role for him for some odd mental reason; everybody wins.
Elsewhere, Jacob deGrom’s being shut down for four weeks because of a stress reaction in his shoulder, and…that’s not good. It’s not like he can just slide back into the rotation after those four weeks are up. The Mets, playing in the same division as a surging Atlanta franchise (the defending champions and all) and a desperate Phillies team…are in trouble. The Mets are in trouble. Might end up being fine, but they’re in trouble.
While we’re on the topic of baseball: For those of you looking for detailed Cubs coverage again, it’ll come back. Needed to get through college basketball first.
NASCAR to Richmond, Betting Notes
Our best bets are up for the weekend, and we’re putting a big hedge down on our Villanova futures (which would feel really nice were Justin Moore healthy) as well as a few NASCAR shots. The NASCAR bets are still experimental, and we’re trying to do a good job separating low-confidence bets from medium-confidence bets. Low-confidence will, in all honesty, probably lose on the aggregate, but they’re experimental and you’re welcome to experiment with us. Medium-confidence bets have a good track record. High-confidence bets are rare, but undefeated all time. So, that’s what we’ve got on that front. NASCAR race is Sunday.
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Women’s Final Four tonight and Championship Sunday, NASCAR Sunday afternoon, Men’s Final Four tomorrow, plenty of NBA and NHL games scattered throughout the next three days. Have a great weekend, and we’ll see you next week.
