College football begins this weekend, and the games are…games. Technically. If you’d like, you can watch them. Even the Mercer one, if you try hard enough.
Let’s go through all fourteen Division-I ‘Week Zero’ contests, grouped by interest:
One Team’s Interesting and We Could Learn Something
- Nebraska vs. Northwestern
Nebraska’s legitimately a team to watch this year, and not just because they’re a dormant power. They could win the Big Ten West. It wouldn’t be that surprising if they won the Big Ten West.
Last year, Nebraska won just three games, and won just one in conference (a 49-point stomping of Northwestern, the very team they’re playing tomorrow). Of their nine losses, though, eight came by one possession, and the ninth was just one point past a one-possession game, coming 26-17 at the hands of Ohio State. They hung with the Buckeyes. They hung with Oklahoma. They hung with College Football Playoff participant Michigan. It was, statistically, one of the unluckiest teams in recent prominent college football memory. It was a shocking display of bad luck.
Now, that doesn’t mean Nebraska’s good. According to Bill Connelly’s, SP+, the best college football rating system I know of, the Huskers are only the 44th-best team in the country. But with no Big Ten West teams in the SP+ top 15, and only Wisconsin in the SP+ top 25? Nebraska’s a sleeper to receive the customary December steamrolling from whichever team wins the Big Ten East.
Northwestern should be close to awful, but they’re a Big Ten team, and the game’s in Ireland, so as a viewing experience, you could do worse. This is what we call a replacement-level game. If we have nothing else you want to do, we watch this kind of thing. If we have anything else we want to do, we don’t.
One Team’s Interesting, But We Probably Won’t Learn Anything
- UNC vs. Florida A&M
- Florida State vs. Duquesne
North Carolina and Florida State are both in the territory in the ACC where, well, it’s sub-Nebraska-in-the-Big-Ten territory. Each is a national brand, though, with the historic interest for FSU and the sleeping power interest for UNC (amplified by Mack Brown’s presence within the program). Florida A&M’s expected to be a decent FCS team, but a quarter of their roster may be ineligible for what might be (this is speculation) administrative errors by the school. Duquesne is expected to be an FCS team with a close-to-fully-eligible roster.
Some Societal Interest
- Howard vs. Alabama State
This is happening at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, which you may know (as I know it) as Turner Field. That’s not the societally interesting thing. Unless you’re really into credit unions and/or naming rights and/or the history of Atlanta, in which case you just hit the interest jackpot.
The game is the HBCU season kickoff (presented by Cricket), and while Jackson State and Florida A&M and South Carolina State and North Carolina A&T are supposed to be the better HBCU teams this year, as opposed to these two, HBCU’s fill a significant role culturally, and college football is a big deal within college academics, and I don’t know I guess every time I get into an HBCU game I start asking a lot of questions about the country and its past and its future, so if you’re looking to spend your Saturday evening doing that, this is a game for you.
Interesting for College Football Nerds, Not for Anyone Else
- Illinois vs. Wyoming
- Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic
- North Texas @ UTEP
- Vanderbilt @ Hawaii
Can Illinois take a step forward in Bret Bielema’s second year? Does Vanderbilt have any hope of being competitive in the next five years? Are you somebody who cares about these questions and also cares about who might step up if a Conference USA favorite falters? You’re going to have a great Saturday.
Interesting for FCS Fans, Not for Anyone Else
- Jacksonville State vs. Stephen F. Austin
Jacksonville State’s on its way out of the FCS (upward movement, though upward to Conference USA so more diagonal if we’re being frank), making it ineligible for the poll of record down there, but Stephen F. Austin’s ranked tenth and Jacksonville State’s often been in the FCS picture over the last few decades. The game’s in Montgomery at the Cramton Bowl, which is where that fight happened in the stands last night at a high school game, the video of which is going a little viral. No promise that you will get to see a fight if you watch this. In fact, if there’s another fight like last night’s, you probably won’t see it. They don’t like to broadcast those kinds of things. They say it encourages that sort of behavior.
Interesting for Fans of the Teams Involved, Not for Anyone Else
- Utah State vs. UConn
- Western Kentucky vs. Austin Peay
- UNLV vs. Idaho State
- Nevada @ New Mexico State
- Mercer vs. Morehead State
Utah State, UNLV, and Nevada are not expected to be factors in the Mountain West. Western Kentucky might be a factor in Conference USA, but 1) it’s Conference USA and 2) they’re playing an unranked FCS team. Mercer is ranked at the FCS level, but Morehead State is not and Mercer’s not ranked very high. Idaho State is not ranked at the FCS level. UConn football is still technically of the same school as the basketball programs, but that’s about all it has going for it. New Mexico State is in Las Cruces, which sounds like a great town based on its name alone but I’m told is not as fun as you would think based on its name alone.
Auburn’s Newest Way to Avoid a Buyout
When Auburn saw Tennessee run Jeremy Pruitt out of town without paying his buyout (at least yet, legal action is [as always] pending), they, like most other college athletic departments at this tier, took note. It was a novel concept: If you want to fire a coach, go find a scandal, then fire that coach with cause. It’s college sports. There’s almost always a scandal.
This winter, the thought by many was that Auburn tried this exact method to rid themselves of head football coach Bryan Harsin. It’s entirely speculative, but Harsin did get off to a rocky start, and Auburn did announce they were investigating him, only for the investigation to turn up no public revelations (my memory is that a rumor started going around about Harsin having an affair with a staffer who had been a cheerleader at Boise State while he coached there, which seems like the exact sort of thing Auburn was hoping was true, which makes me personally think it wasn’t true and Auburn fans unnecessarily ran an Auburn staffer’s name through the mud but we are deep into speculation here and we must stress for our own legal protection that absolutely none of this is established fact).
Today, Auburn’s athletic director, Allen Greene, resigned after reportedly being told the school wouldn’t decide whether or not to offer him a new deal until after football season. With his current contract expiring in January—ideally, right around the end of football season—he decided not to risk being walked out in the middle of an academic sports year and chose instead to walk out at the beginning of one.
It’s a weird moment from a weird school, but more than any of the games this weekend, it does make you feel like college football is really back in action. What a sport.
I’m curious what the landing spot is for a guy in Greene’s situation. Also, what does this say about his expectations for the football season? I wonder if the over/under’s moved on Auburn wins this year.
Julio Rodríguez: Star?
Six weeks ago, he got some national attention via the Home Run Derby. Two days ago, he joined the 20-20 club. Today, Mariners rookie centerfielder Julio Rodríguez signed a contract extension that should keep him in Seattle for what sounds to be at least seven seasons after this one, and potentially as many as eighteen (the reports currently say there are both club options and a player option). Without a lot of details, it’s hard to say much about the contract itself, but generally, these are good deals for both the team and the player. The player gets their life-changing money sooner, the team gets the player at a discount, the player doesn’t have to worry about a catastrophic injury leaving them in a bad place, etc. It’s also a good reminder of where the game is shifting, which is in the direction of young players being valuable. We haven’t had any prominent holdouts post-draft so far in baseball, but with the free agency/arbitration system decidedly in the favor of organizations, I wonder if that could change in the coming years, making these sorts of extensions even more common.
On the field (and elsewhere around it):
American League
The Mariners got a win over Cleveland yesterday in Rodríguez’s final pre-extension game. He scored Seattle’s first run, crossing the plate first on Mitch Haniger’s first-inning blast that gave the Mariners a 3-1 lead which held the rest of the game.
Around Seattle in the standings, everyone else won as well. The Red Sox loaded the bases with the game tied in the ninth, but Jordan Romero induced a strikeout and a double play to get out of it, and Toronto triumphed in the tenth. The White Sox carried a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth in Baltimore, but Kyle Stowers homered to tie it after Adam Engel dropped a two-out foul ball, and then Félix Bautista threw two scoreless frames to get the O’s through extra innings victorious. The Rays pounded the Angels, 8-3. With the Twins losing again in Houston, this all leaves Baltimore still two and a half back of Seattle for the last American League playoff spot, with Minnesota and Chicago two and a half back of them and four back of the Guardians in the Central.
In the East, Toronto and Tampa Bay (and Baltimore, I suppose) gained no ground as the Yankees jumped on the A’s in that series opener, winning their fourth straight for the first time since June.
National League
The Cardinals got the Cubs in their five-game series’ finale, Paul Goldschmidt homering twice to lead the charge. With the Brewers idle, this leaves St. Louis in front by six games heading into tonight. It’s a five-game lead in the loss column.
Jacob deGrom was himself in Queens, making Pete Alonso’s third-inning home run decisive as he worked six innings against the visiting Rockies, striking out nine while walking one and allowing a home run. He threw 87 pitches. With Atlanta idle, that lead’s back to a clean two games.
Aaron Nola was his best self in Philadelphia, going all nine innings in a shutout victory over the Reds. Eleven strikeouts. Zero walks. Some late hits, but not enough to bring any runs in. Kyle Schwarber hit his 35th home run. The Padres, like the Brewers, didn’t play, so the Phils’ lead is now two and a half games on the 5-seed.
Newsy Bits
The Rays have extended Tyler Glasnow through 2024. He’ll make $5.35M next year and $25M in his contract’s final season as he works back from Tommy John surgery, from which I’d assume he’ll be back next spring if everything is going as planned.
Zack Wheeler is going on the IL for the Phillies with forearm tendonitis. He’s having another strong year this season after carving up the National League last year. Anything with forearms makes me wince because the word is so associated with Tommy John, but I don’t know if that’s the right reaction here. Hopefully it isn’t.
There’s a big load of DFA’s today as noncontending teams try to get their larger-contract guys claimed on waivers, saving them the price of those September paychecks while getting them to opponents in time to be eligible for the playoff roster. None of that so far from the Cubs, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Maikel Franco and Jesús Aguilar are the two I’ve seen this happen with so far, to give you an idea of what kinds of players are on the block.
Four Days ‘til Cuts
Final cuts are due in four days for NFL rosters, and after the Packers’ final preseason game last night, most of the hay is in the barn. As we’ve been saying, it’s not impossible that these make a difference—every player does matter. But when we hash these out, it’s mostly because we’re waiting on something bigger within the NFL world to grab our attention.
Blaney vs. Truex vs. Jones vs. Wallace vs. Buescher vs. McDowell vs. Keselowski vs…
The NASCAR regular season ends tomorrow night, and the situation is as follows:
If Ryan Blaney or Martin Truex Jr. wins, the two take the final two playoff spots.
If a repeat winner (this season) wins, Blaney and Truex still take the final two playoff spots.
If there’s a new winner (this season) and that winner’s in the top thirty in points, that winner takes one playoff spot and the other goes to whichever of Blaney and Truex finishes ahead in points (Blaney enters the weekend 25 ahead of Truex).
This all leaves the following 15 drivers racing for two playoff spots, not to mention a premier win:
- Ryan Blaney
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Erik Jones
- Aric Almirola
- Austin Dillon
- Bubba Wallace
- Chris Buescher
- Justin Haley
- Michael McDowell
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Cole Custer
- Brad Keselowski
- Harrison Burton
- Ty Dillon
- Todd Gilliland
Of those 15, at least ten have been described at some point in mainstream NASCAR discourse as being strong at superspeedways, which might partially be a function of how wide-open superspeedway races are, as competitions. Blaney isn’t in win-at-all-costs mode, but the other fifteen are. Truex gains nothing from a clean race unless Blaney wrecks out first or Truex smokes him in stage points.
On the F1 side, the race is in Belgium, and evidently it’s a more competitive track because a lot of teams are using this week to pass the limit on engines used during the season. So, there’ll be some big names starting from the back, notably not including Lewis Hamilton, who I believe I’m seeing is only 32 points shy of second place in the standings with tons of season left.
Updates: Models, Bets
Our college football model is still supposed to come back at its joint 2018/2019 level this year, which means we’re planning to publish week-by-week probabilities on who’ll make the College Football Playoff and who’ll win each conference title, in addition to FCS Bracketology. It’s looking like we should be able to publish all of those before next week’s games, plus median win-loss totals and bowl projections (new outputs!), but that could change. Setbacks happen, and we’re always fitting model work in around the writing portion of this blog (which is comparably necessary for growth), other endeavors with the site (merchandise, social media, etc.), and our own personal and non-blog professional responsibilities. We’re improving at getting attention to the modeling, but we’re not where we’d like to be on that yet.
With that, it seems worthwhile to give our latest update on models overall, and because our models tie into our betting, we’ll also give an update on that.
As it stands, we have three models: Our college basketball bracketology model, our college football model, and Gelo—our NHL model. All three of those should be in operation for the 2022-23 season, with growth expected for all three (the aforementioned improvements in college football, similar improvements in college basketball, and a full season of Gelo instead of just the playoffs). Behind those, our priorities are, in order: A women’s college basketball model, our MLB trade calculator, motorsports models, and other college sports models. Beyond that, others are in the queue, but they’re years away unless something dramatically changes. So, once we get the college football model fully functional, it’s on to tidying up the NHL one so it’s ready to go in October, followed by the college basketball blitz ahead of November. If we get all of that done ahead of schedule, we’ll look into college hockey or volleyball, but we would have to exceed our own often overly optimistic expectations for that to be on the table.
Where this ties into betting is that we do very well on futures picks and we’re mediocre (but streaky) on single-game picks. Our best futures portfolio, year over year, is our MLB one, and we’ll continue to use FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds model as the basis for that. We’ll also continue to use FiveThirtyEight’s SPI for our test soccer portfolios. We’re planning on picking NFL and NBA futures this year, and we’re undecided on a model for those but for at least the NBA, we’ll probably go with FiveThirtyEight as a starting point, since it’s helped us out privately before (see: 2019 Toronto Raptors). Our impression is that while having a good model is key, there’s also a lot you can do with your portfolio that’s equally if not more important—utilizing leverage, pairing semi-hedge bets, etc. We haven’t been doing this long enough to be confident in that, but that’s our general impression. For college football, college basketball, and the NHL, we’re going to use our in-house models (with KenPom as an input for college basketball and the market’s season points over/unders as an input for Gelo). We’ll still likely be picking some individual games, but the focus is going to be a lot more largely on futures. Futures are our future, we believe, on that side of the business (and that’s not a small side of the business—if we’re winning picks, we’re also making real-world money).
Will we actually be back profitable on the published bets by November 5th, which we list as our current ETA? I’m not sure. We might be, and we’ll almost certainly be closer, but we’re not in a position to guarantee that yet. It’s just our ETA. We need some things to go right (the A’s winning their next three games would be pretty neat). So, watch this space.
Overall, the models and the bets are still a big part of the future, even as these notes gain traction and we prepare for a desired return to more video and audio content. I’d estimate that the models are the core of the future, at least in the most linearly progressing scenario. But because developing them isn’t a core part of our day-to-day output, we’re still struggling to make a habit of fitting that development in. That’s the key struggle we’re working on over here. Bark.
**
Viewing schedule for the weekend, games of note and games of personal interest, second screen rotation in italics:
Friday
MLB of interest:
- 8:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Milwaukee, Steele vs. Peralta (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Miami, Anderson vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia, Wilson vs. Falter (MLB TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Toronto, Detmers vs. White (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Colorado @ New York (NL), Kuhl vs. Bassitt (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Boston, Chargois vs. Wacha (Apple TV+)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Arizona @ Chicago (AL), Henry vs. Cueto (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Houston, Bradish vs. McCullers (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Kansas City, Musgrove vs. Bubic (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Minnesota, Wood vs. Ryan (MLB TV)
- 8:15 PM EDT: Atlanta @ St. Louis, Strider vs. Quintana (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Oakland, Cole vs. Sears (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Seattle, Bieber vs. Gilbert (Apple TV+)
Soccer that matters to our portfolios:
- 3:00 PM EDT: Sheffield United @ Luton Town (ESPN+)
Saturday
MLB of interest:
- 4:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Boston, Springs vs. Hill (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Milwaukee, Smyly vs. Woodruff (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Seattle, Plesac vs. Castillo (FS1)
- 3:07 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Toronto, Ohtani vs. Manoah (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 6:05 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia, Beede vs. Gibson (MLB TV)
- 6:10 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Miami, May vs. Alcantara (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Arizona @ Chicago (AL), Kelly vs. Martin (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Houston, Kremer vs. Urquidy (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Colorado @ New York (NL), Freeland vs. Peterson (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Kansas City, Darvish vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- 7:15 PM EDT: Atlanta @ St. Louis, Morton vs. Montgomery (FOX)
- 7:15 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Minnesota, Cobb vs. Gray (FOX)
- 9:07 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Oakland, TBD vs. Oller (MLB TV)
College football of interest:
- 12:30 PM EDT: Nebraska vs. Northwestern (FOX)
NASCAR:
- 7:00 PM EDT: Coke Zero Sugar 400 – Cup Series at Daytona (NBC)
Soccer that matters to our portfolios:
- 7:30 AM EDT: Manchester United @ Southampton (USA)
- 10:00 AM EDT: Leeds @ Brighton (USA)
- 7:30 AM EDT: Norwich City @ Sunderland (ESPN+)
- 10:00 AM EDT: Everton @ Brentford (Peacock)
- 10:00 AM EDT: Queens Park Rangers @ Watford
- 10:00 AM EDT: Swansea City @ Middlesbrough
Sunday
MLB of interest:
- 2:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Milwaukee, Sampson vs. Lauer (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Atlanta @ St. Louis, Odorizzi vs. Wainwright (ESPN)
- 12:05 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Miami, Urías vs. Cabrera (Peacock)
- 1:35 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia, Contreras vs. Syndergaard (MLB TV)
- 1:35 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Boston, Kluber vs. Pivetta (MLB TV)
- 1:37 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Toronto, Davidson vs. Stripling (MLB TV)
- 1:40 PM EDT: Colorado @ New York (NL), Márquez vs. Scherzer (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Arizona @ Chicago (AL), Davies vs. Cease (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Houston, Voth vs. Verlander (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Kansas City, Manaea vs. Lynch (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Minnesota, Junis vs. Sanchez (MLB TV)
- 4:07 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Oakland, Germán vs. Logue (MLB TV)
- 4:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Seattle, Civale vs. Ray (MLB TV)
Soccer that matters to our portfolios:
- 9:00 AM EDT: West Ham @ Aston Villa (USA)
F1:
- 9:00 AM EDT: Rolex Belgian Grand Prix (ESPN)
