Apologies for yesterday’s unexpected absence—sometimes, we have to remind ourselves this isn’t a full-time job yet. Getting there, though. Getting there.
We have all sorts of things to get to, having not written these since Friday, but we’re going to start with the Cubs, since last night was fun and that marks eight days of fun for this team on the heels of that depressing week against the White Sox and Dodgers.
The recent string of wins (five in the last seven) is nice, but it doesn’t change things much for this team’s season-long outlook, only bumping up the projected win total to 73.2 entering tonight’s game. There’s a lot more that needs to happen before considering getting excited about 2022 again. In the meantime, it’s ok to get excited about 2023 and beyond, and that starts with…Willson Contreras?
I know, I know. The narrative is that the Cubs will not hold onto Willson Contreras, and the foundation of that narrative is reasonable. Contreras and the Cubs are rather publicly not discussing a contract extension, and the fact the two sides went to arbitration this offseason (that hearing actually still has to happen) points to a possibility of legitimate bad blood between the camps. If you can’t come to an agreement where one party has to sacrifice a million dollars or so, it’s not a great indicator for your extension status, where disagreement on value is a whole lot wider. Add in that the Cubs are trying to get younger and that Contreras is a 30-year-old catcher (not an easy position at which to age gracefully) and, well, like we said: The foundation of that narrative is reasonable. But let’s consider a few things:
The first is that Willson Contreras has not yet been traded. This, despite the conventional wisdom that starting catchers are hard assets to deal at the deadline because of the importance of familiarity between a catcher and a pitching staff, something an offseason is a helpful tool in creating. Were the Cubs hell-bent on trading Contreras, it was a big risk to not do it in March.
The second is that the Cubs lack a long-term catching plan beyond Willson Contreras. Yan Gomes is 34. Miguel Amaya is in the early stages of recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Cubs could commit to a long-term platoon, something that’s been pretty successful around the league in recent years, but a platoon with Contreras would be better than most platoons without him.
The third is how well Contreras is hitting the ball. The man’s 158 wRC+ is 17th in the Majors among qualified hitters. The man’s .425 xwOBA is tenth in the Majors among qualified hitters. The next-closest qualified catcher xwOBA is Daulton Varsho’s .348, and Varsho’s been spending a lot of time in the outfield (Varsho is also the only other qualified catcher with an above-average wRC+). This may just be a hot start, but it also might be some positive regression, or a breakthrough. Contreras has been an above-average hitter every year of his career, and often comfortably so. This year is far and away his best, so far, and years like this change the outlook for a player long-term. If the Cubs’ reticence to extend the guy comes from concerns about how he’ll age, this (and the addition of a DH in the NL and Contreras’s ability to play a little first base, where the Cubs currently have a long-term hole) helps assuage that.
A trade remains the likeliest scenario, and it’s possible that could be coming by the end of the month, as the Cubs try to capitalize on the hot start while avoiding any late-season-catcher-learning-curve discount. But don’t rule out an extension just yet. There’s a lot of time for that to materialize.
In other Cubs news:
- Seiya Suzuki reentered the lineup on Saturday and has now played three full games in a row. With any injury, it’s hard to feel secure, but we’re at least at the stage where he’s on the field, and he’s had some great moments in those three games.
- Nico Hoerner is indeed on the injured list after the bizarre sprained ankle in San Diego, with Andrelton Simmons coming off the injured list to take his place. Simmons’s presence in the infield doesn’t change the outlook of the Cubs at present too terribly—Hoerner’s been a better hitter (as nearly everyone in the Majors has been in recent years compared to Simmons), but his history isn’t established enough to make expectations as high as his year-to-date performance. In the long run, it does hurt to have Hoerner missing more time, but it’s more developmental than present-tense. Hopefully his return is as quick as it’s sounding like it could be.
- Frank Schwindel hit the eventual game-winning single in the top of the ninth on Sunday, but even with that and his big double on Wednesday against the Padres, the guy has mounted just a 52 wRC+ so far since the demotion fiasco. On the bright side, his average exit velocity’s been 90.3 mph, and with that his season-long average exit velocity’s now higher than it was in 2021. There are launch angle considerations to be considered, but hitting the ball harder is not a bad thing.
- Christopher Morel and Brandon Hughes are being called up to the Majors today, with Jason Heyward going to the IL (with “no designation,” which implies Covid) and Conner Menez heading back to AAA. Hughes will be joining the 40-man as well as the 26-man. Morel’s already on the 40-man. Morel is not a top prospect, but he’s a believable one and has long been believable. Only 22, he can play all over the field and he’s been posting a .306/.380/.565 slash in AA, good for a 150 wRC+ at that level. He’s a high-strikeout guy with power, which can go a lot of different directions (Patrick Wisdom’s around league-average at the plate right now, by the way). Hughes isn’t much of a prospect himself but has been striking batters out all over the place for a couple years now, and pure relief pitchers are rarely considered prospects due to how low-impact most turn out to be, at least through the WAR lens (WPA can be another story, but that’s another conversation).
- Wade Miley and Justin Steele have each been great these last two nights, and Kyle Hendricks wasn’t great on Saturday but was much better than he’s often been. This on the heels of a solid outing from Drew Smyly on Friday and that dominant start from Hendricks on Monday. The Cubs’ rotation is still just 25th in fWAR (the bullpen is 4th, the position players are 22nd), but it’s not hard to imagine a routinely solid set of five starters for a bit when Marcus Stroman gets back from what continues to sound like a Covid situation (he’s evidently been cleared but is still on the IL, for whatever that’s worth).
- While we wait for Stroman’s return, Keegan Thompson gets the start tonight against JT Brubaker. The Cubs can pass the Pirates in the standings with a win.
No around-the-MLB on the front end of this week. We’ll do a week-long one on Friday.
The Cyclone Tailgate Tour Is Underway
Not a lot of noise coming out so far from Jamie Pollard, Matt Campbell, T.J. Otzelberger, Bill Fennelly, Christy Johnson-Lynch, and Kevin Dresser’s tour of the state of Iowa this week and next, which is great. Iowa State, athletically, is not in a position of needing to make noise at donor Q&A’s.
Focusing on Campbell and Otzelberger, since football and men’s basketball are two sports we cover closely on this site, what a good combination of coaches to have right now, especially compared to possibilities at Iowa State. There has been legitimate fear for the future of each of these programs within the last twelve months alone, and yet most Cyclones people should (and do, I think) have complete confidence in these two guys. That’s something to appreciate.
Cyclones vs. Duke
In Transfer Portal news, Kevin Sweeney reported yesterday that AJ Green, the Northern Iowa point guard whose dad’s on the staff at ISU, is down to either Iowa State or Duke if he doesn’t go pro (he’s at the G League Elite Camp, which…guy, just come to Ames). Green would be a heck of an addition to the backcourt, carrying a lot of weight offensively while turning Jeremiah Williams into an upside-only guy for this year (you don’t have to play him if he isn’t producing upside) and helping Gabe Kalscheur bear little responsibility for scoring points. A platoon of Green and Jaren Holmes would be a solid platoon at the point.
In other portal news, DJ Jeffries has exited it and will remain at Mississippi State.
Jaire Alexander: Packer for Life?
The Packers have extended Jaire Alexander, and in doing so have cleared up a little more cap space this season while locking up a cornerback who, when healthy, has been a force of nature. Nice to have that settled, and looks promising for bringing in a good receiver still this offseason via free agency.
Sorry, Softball Fans
We talked a few weeks ago about Relo, our hoped-for college softball and baseball model for those postseasons. There’s still a chance we’ll get the baseball one put together on time, but with softball’s NCAA Tournament beginning Friday, that ship has sailed for this year. Just wanted to follow up on that.
Checking In on Gelo
Speaking of our models, Gelo’s on a rough run with the bets, and we somehow missed all five of our first round series plays, which at that point is at least a little bit bad luck. We’re in on the under in both games tonight, and Gelo continues to see the Blues, Oilers, Rangers, and sometimes Lightning as undervalued by the market, though it does agree with the market that the Panthers, Avalanche, and Hurricanes are each series favorites (no such agreement on the Flames).
It’s possible Gelo is just too conservative and its unwillingness to call teams great has it underestimating teams who really are great. It’s also possible the market is getting carried away. We might never know for sure, but we’ll look into it this offseason regardless of how things shake out. Hopefully the Blues, Oilers, Rangers, and Lightning can all keep their series interesting, both for Gelo’s reputation and for the general enjoyment of those series. Based on the first round, you’d think these series would all be competitive, but again—the market disagrees.
The Lottery vs. The Basketball
The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight, as is the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals (Heat vs. Celtics), which leads one to ask which will be a bigger draw for the current diehard NBA fans out there. A legitimate criticism of the current NBA ecosystem is that the on-court action comes second to off-court shenanigans. Jimmy Butler vs. Jayson Tatum is fun, and the Heat and the Celtics are two marquee franchises, but is the game going to draw the same attention as theorizing over who will be drafted first overall based on how the lottery balls fall? In some corners, yes. In others, no.
The Celtics’ comeback against the Bucks was eye-popping, as was the Mavericks’ triumph over the Suns. It was very hard, after Game 2, to see the Mavs pulling that off. It was very hard, after Game 5, to see the Celtics pulling that off. Kudos to the powers that be for the plot twists.
Happier Betting News
We got our biggest NASCAR win of the season, an 18-to-1 play, and through a slight alteration of our approach, that translated to an even bigger net profit than it would have been otherwise. We picked three drivers to win, they finished first, second, and third, it was a fun race. Didn’t win on the IndyCar, but won on the NASCAR, and the ledger needed one of those. Thank you, Kurt Busch.
***
No viewing schedule for tonight. Hopefully the full notes will be back in action tomorrow. In the meantime, I’m gonna publish this before the Cubs trade Contreras and I fall all over myself praising the deal, which I assume will be good for the Cubs if it happens even if an extension would also possibly be good for the Cubs if it happens.
