Joe’s Notes: College Football Trickles In

The college football buildup is slow, but that doesn’t mean it’s empty. After certain grumpy bloggers lamented last Saturday’s “Week Zero” slate, Nebraska/Northwestern gave us plenty of fun and fodder. So while we don’t get any answers about Ohio State (or Clemson) this evening, I’m willing to enjoy a pair of games if you are.

Pitt was among last year’s fun little surprises, seizing opportunity in Clemson’s down year to become the best team in the ACC. (Was it seizing, or was it creating? Because Pitt’s victory over the Tigers drove in a big nail if the coffin door wasn’t already shut.) Being the best team in the ACC didn’t mean too much—the ACC had the lowest ceiling of any Power Five league last year, and it may have been the worst top-to-bottom as well—but Pitt was a good football team led by a good quarterback, and that’s more than we’ve seen from Pitt since the Marino years (the 2009 team was good, but Bill Stull was no Kenny Pickett). Tonight, they try to embark upon a worthy sequel. The ACC should be better, but it might still be open for the taking. Was a three-loss campaign and ACC contention Pat Narduzzi’s peak? Could the Panthers stay up there?

They play West Virginia, a romantic program stuck in the decent-not-great quagmire so far under Neal Brown. The Backyard Brawl might not be the first rivalry that comes to mind when thinking of college football, but it sure has a great name, and there’s something fun about a reunion eleven years after conference realignment scuttled the annual game (these schools were long both independent, so the realignment piece wasn’t the problem). Even playing in Pittsburgh, the Panthers are only favored by about a touchdown. To be honest, that’s a bit disrespectful.

Elsewhere in the Rust Belt, Penn State goes to Purdue, and while Penn State sure looks undervalued, so did Nebraska by the same token. The Nittany Lions lack the Cornhuskers’ terrifying descent into irrelevance (so far), but they’ve also lost a lot of games they should have won these last two years. Purdue, meanwhile, also looks undervalued? This was a nine-win team last year that was once ranked as high as 19^th (and, according to our model, would have been ranked 21^st heading into bowl games had the College Football Playoff committee followed its own precedent more closely). Their big wins faded over time—Iowa and Michigan State were each good teams, but not top-three by any stretch—but they were good and competitive and scary, and they’ve still got Aidan O’Connell, a top-five quarterback last year by completion percentage and nearly a top-ten quarterback by total yards. Jeff Brohm’s teams have always been high-octane and volatile. James Franklin’s program has oddly struggled these last two years but is still loaded with talent. It’s the undercard, but it’s probably going to be the better game.

Can the Yankees Run Out the Clock?

I’m sorry, we’re going to keep hammering this story.

The Yankees lost again last night, Jimmy Herget picking up the save while looking like a man playing bass in a baseball-themed wedding band. The Blue Jays didn’t win, so the Yankees didn’t lose ground on them, but the Rays did win, pulling Tampa Bay within five of New York in the loss column ahead of three games between the pair this weekend and another five next weekend (between those sets, the Rays host Boston for three and the Yankees host Minnesota for four).

FanGraphs still places the Yankees’ AL East championship probability north of 90%, and it says the Blue Jays have a better shot than the Rays at playing thief (the Rays only play nine of their remaining 33 games against teams outside playoff position, and those are all against the still-competitive Red Sox and Rangers). But. The lead’s down to five in the loss column. The probability of holding on is down to about ten-in-eleven. At one point that probability was above 99-in-100.

This is bonkers, and what’s causing it, and what’s going oddly unaddressed in betting markets (that, or books took on a giant liability on the Yankees back in May) is that this just isn’t a very good roster. Going by FanGraphs Depth Charts, it’s got the tenth-best rotation, the fifteenth-best bullpen, and the third-best lineup. That lineup does a lot of work, but this team just doesn’t have enough pitching. Clay Holmes convincingly playing Gagne for three months might have hurt this team a whole lot. Or, I guess, it could have kept them from trading for Josh Hader. Who knows. That Jordan Montgomery trade looked baffling at the time, but in the opposite direction.

Other baseball:

AL Wild Card Race

The Orioles shut out the Guardians (and got a home run from Gunnar Henderson in his debut—good pictures out there of his helmet failing to contain his hair on the swing), and the Mariners beat the Tigers, and that leaves us with Seattle and Tampa Bay each two games up on Toronto, who is in turn two up on Baltimore. Toronto, we should stress, is the best team on paper of the three, but we’re getting down to small-sample time. One month (plus a few days) left. The leverage is high.

AL Central Race

With Cleveland losing, the Twins found themselves with a golden opportunity to pull within half a game of playoff position. Instead, Carlos Correa grounded into a double play against Matt Barnes, the Red Sox held on to a win in Minneapolis, and the gap’s still one and a half. The White Sox did grab a win, holding off the Royals at home, but they only closed their gap to five.

NL Wild Card Race

Having learned their lesson blowing that 7-0 lead on Monday, the Phillies didn’t stop scoring, avenging their 13-7 and 12-3 losses the prior two nights with an 18-2 beatdown of the Diamondbacks. Bryce Harper, who went 3-for-4 and walked twice, is back in the lineup.

The Padres, meanwhile, beat the Giants again, leaving themselves and Philly still separated by just the half-game, with the Phils ahead. The Brewers won their rubbermatch with the Pirates to stay two and a half back of San Diego.

NL Central Race

St. Louis held its six-game lead over Milwaukee, turning to the five-man infield multiple times in its 13-inning victory over the Reds while Andre Pallante kept the ball hit short time and time again. Pallante’s Win Probability Added for the game was 0.75, meaning his performance shifted the game circumstances by three quarters of a win in the Cardinals’ favor. Albert Pujols finally broke the deadlock with a sac fly in the 13^th before Lars Nootbaar went deep with two outs to provide the insurance.

NL East Race

New York and Atlanta matched results, the former besting the Dodgers in one of the most exciting games of the year (Brandon Nimmo made one heck of a catch to get Jacob deGrom out of the game with a lead) and the latter winning against the Rockies.

News

Clayton Kershaw’s back today, starting for the Dodgers while Brusdar Graterol goes on the IL. Brett Baty might be done for the season, undergoing surgery to address a torn ligament in his thumb. The Twins and Orioles have called up Billy Hamilton and Jesús Aguilar, respectively, making quick use of some late-season free agent pickups. Carlos Martínez has been suspended 85 games on top of his 80-game PED suspension—this one comes under the domestic violence/sexual assault/child abuse policy, with no details available on what incident led to the decision. Hopefully everyone’s as ok as they can be.

Michael Conforto didn’t sign with a team yesterday, making him ineligible for the postseason if he signs with one later on. I do not know exactly what’s happening with him—he was hurt, but he’s rumored to have plenty of suitors—but, no playoffs, dramatically changing his market from teams like the Astros to teams like the Cubs. Scott Boras is his agent, which might explain some of the weirdness.

And, speaking of weirdness, Ángel Hernández’s discrimination lawsuit against Major League Baseball has now led to MLB writing, in legal documents, that Hernández was on track to umpire in the World Series in 2018, the year after he filed the lawsuit, but that he then had three calls at first base overturned by replay in a single game in the Division Series, a record. They named four other incidents of concern, ranging from Hernández asking Homer Bailey to autograph baseballs after his 2012 no-hitter to Hernández allegedly eavesdropping on another umpire as that ump was being interviewed about a mistake Hernández made (the baseball equivalent of witness tampering, perhaps).

On one side, you’d think that if a guy umpires for thirty years at the MLB level, as Hernández has, MLB would have plenty to point towards regarding their decision to not let him up the World Series and not make him a crew chief. In other words, they can probably point to incidents with anybody. On a similar side, you’d think that if Hernández was unacceptably bad, MLB would try to fire him with cause. But really, the truth is probably this: Hernández isn’t one of MLB’s better umps. They want to keep him off the big stage. He’s satisfactory enough, though, that he isn’t worth the fight of firing. The umps have a union, after all. He’s a replacement-level umpire.

I will say: A guy who can’t get a crew chief job because MLB says he escalates conflict with managers turning and escalating conflict with Major League Baseball is a funny little bit.

The Cubs

The Cubs avoided the sweep in Toronto, finishing the month of August having gone 6-11 against playoff teams (and 9-4 against non-playoff teams), which is…fine. For a non-playoff team, that’s fine, but the fact it’s felt so good is a little discouraging when one puts the month in focus. 31 games remain, but only nine are against playoff teams. Win their series against the bad teams, lose their series against the good teams, and the team could finish this year…74-88. Those last six games, all against the Reds, might be invigorating but also might be brutal.

Justin Steele won’t start against the Cardinals, with the Cubs opting to go Sampson/Smyly/Stroman through the weekend. This could be a decision to save Steele innings, it could be a decision to keep him in rhythm (I have no idea if teams ever do this, but I wonder if they might’ve had him throw a bigger bullpen yesterday, the day he would’ve started), it could signify that they’re worried about his back from after it tightened up on him in Milwaukee. Whatever the cause, no Steele against the Cardinals.

With rosters expanding, Jeremiah Estrada has been added to the 40-man roster, and David Bote will also be coming back up. Wade Miley went on the 60-day IL to make space for Estrada (who struck out two and walked one while facing four batters on Monday in his lone appearance on the week), but Miley does continue to rehab. Just a possible move that made the necessary space.

Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland

The Cavs are the ones acquiring Donovan Mitchell from Utah, sending Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, and first-round pick Ochai Agbaji west with three unprotected first-round picks and two “pick swaps” (ok you guys lost me now). Cavs keep their core and add Mitchell at its center, Jazz jumpstart the rebuilt but won’t get any of those first-round picks in an actual draft until 2025. Maybe the delayed draft picks is the idea—lose a lot these next three years, stack up the good picks, then contend around the end of the decade—or maybe they’re just good assets to have, so you can trade them in 2025 if you like what you’re working with. I suppose the options are there to do either.

Sexton, meanwhile, has been extended for four years, which is perhaps a clue in that. Sexton/Markkanen/Agbaji isn’t a bad young trio. All 25 or younger. Markkanen’s just moved around a lot, so he seems older.

Quarterbacks: How Old Are They?

With Russell Wilson and the Broncos agreeing on an extension, one that was expected but nonetheless places him in Denver through age 39, let’s look at QB ages, oldest to youngest, across the NFL. This list is starters-only, and it’s the intended starter, meaning we’re including Deshaun Watson rather than…are the Browns going with Brissett?

• 45 years old: Tom Brady
• 44 years old:
• 43 years old:
• 42 years old:
• 41 years old:
• 40 years old:
• 39 years old:
• 38 years old: Aaron Rodgers
• 37 years old: Matt Ryan
• 36 years old:
• 35 years old:
• 34 years old: Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill
• 33 years old: Russell Wilson
• 32 years old:
• 31 years old: Derek Carr, Geno Smith
• 30 years old:
• 29 years old: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz
• 28 years old: Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston
• 27 years old: Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield
• 26 years old: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson
• 25 years old: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray
• 24 years old: Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa
• 23 years old: Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Zach Wilson
• 22 years old: Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence

Median age? 26. And three quarters are 31 or younger. Forgot about the old Prescott/Wentz debate, that’s a fun throwback. You could’ve told me any age for Davis Mills and I would have believed you. Ditto Jared Goff. It is nuts how young Marcus Mariota is. I might need to make this its own blogpost for the SEO gods.

In Packers bits, they signed Rudy Ford and waived Micah Abernathy in their first post-training-camp-cuts roster move. In a conversation with the media yesterday, Brian Gutekunst called Ford “one of the best gunners in the league,” so look for him on punts. Danny Etling, Travis Fulgham, and Tyler Goodson all cleared waivers and are back on the practice squad, among others. Included in those others are reportedly Ramiz Ahmed and Juwann Winfree, after some initial doubt as to whether Winfree had or hadn’t cleared waivers, but those haven’t been announced (so I guess the doubt persists). Ahmed is the hoped-for insurance policy should Mason Crosby not be healthy enough to kick.

Housekeeping: CFB Model Edition

No college football model launch yet. There’s still a chance we’ll have it tomorrow or Saturday, in which case we’ll bet a few futures so long as we can find value in the markets that are still open for the week. We’re making progress on it, but it just isn’t quite there yet. To anyone waiting: Our apologies.

**

Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:

College Football

• 8:00 PM EDT: Penn State @ Purdue (FOX)
• 7:00 PM EDT: West Virginia @ Pitt (ESPN)

MLB (of Significance)

• 1:10 PM EDT: Seattle @ Detroit, Gilbert vs. Rodriguez (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ New York (NL), Kershaw vs. Bassitt (MLB TV)
• 2:10 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Chicago (AL), Mengden vs. Cueto (MLB TV)
• 6:10 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Cleveland, Bradish vs. Bieber (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Boston, Otto vs. Hill (MLB TV)
• 7:20 PM EDT: Colorado @ Atlanta, Kuhl vs. Strider (MLB TV)
• 9:40 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Arizona, Woodruff vs. Kelly (MLB TV)

Soccer (of Significance to Our Futures Portfolios)

• 3:00 PM EDT: Manchester United @ Leicester (USA)