When a college football team goes from winning only two games to losing only two games in the matter of a year, a suspicion accompanies said team. Is Baylor really as good as they appeared in 2021? Our best ratings systems indicate that they are. Adjusting for home-field advantage, betting markets indicate the Bears are roughly a point better than Iowa State, while ESPN’s SP+ and our own Movelor put the gap at 4.1 points and 1.4 points, respectively. Still, it’s hard to know, especially at this early stage.
We’ve spoken previously about having a good idea of Baylor’s ceiling. When we say this, we don’t mean that Baylor can’t get better, or that Baylor can’t play better than they have. We mean instead that we’ve seen Baylor be beaten, so we know how good a team needs to be to beat them. With this also true of that specific opponent, BYU, we have some transitive impressions which say…yeah, Baylor’s probably just about as good as Iowa State.
In short, today’s a pretty even match. Baylor was ferocious against the run in Provo, it was a little more questionable against the pass, and its offense is still not the breadwinner for the program. Iowa State’s defense needs to keep the Cyclones close early—none of this playing from behind we’ve seen the last three years. Iowa State’s offense will be well served if it can establish forward motion on the ground, but it’s well-equipped to attack Baylor where the Bears are vulnerable as well. Xavier Hutchinson, as always, has a lot of leverage on his shoulders, with even more on Hunter Dekkers, the guy throwing him the ball. At a high level, that’s what we’re working with today in Ames.
Feels Like 2005
I’ve been excited for Albert Pujols ever since he started this little habit of hitting two home runs every few games and made it clear he’d challenge for 700. I’ve been excited for him since he and the Cardinals got him back to St. Louis, really. I was still surprised how emotional it was to watch the video of him celebrating last night, and to see the reactions and sometimes distant celebrations from around Major League Baseball.
I was really surprised to feel emotional reading of Roger Federer’s last match, with Rafael Nadal his teammate and the crowd so loud they couldn’t hear each other on the court.
When I was in elementary and middle school, my dad would get me a subscription to ESPN the Magazine every Christmas. I loved it. I loved the long-form stories, and I felt so ‘in touch’ with sports at a time in life when the sporting world seems downright magical. Something about Pujols and Federer grabbing limelight again, unexpectedly for me, on a Friday night, brought up a lot of nostalgia.
The best thing about both of these guys is that they’ve been in the spotlight for nigh on twenty years, and they’ve been class the whole way through. We don’t know what kind of people celebrities are, just as you and I likely don’t know what kind of people each other is, but we have no reason to believe anything but good about Pujols and Federer, and after that much time in our sights, making quite a living in a stressful, emotional way, that is remarkable. When I think of Pujols, for the rest of my life, I suspect I’ll think of all he and his family did and are doing for people with Down syndrome. When I think of Federer, for the rest of my life, I suspect I’ll feel similarly to how I feel about Tom Hanks. Gracious and graceful. What a career.
Other baseball (no other tennis, sorry for the tennis aficionados, also how did you get in here and how do you like the blog):
NL East
The Mets have taken a commanding lead.
After the Phillies jumped on Jake Odorizzi, beating Atlanta 9-1, the Mets jumped on Cole Irvin, taking down the A’s 9-2 and giving themselves a two and a half game division advantage with less than two weeks to go. There’s still a three-game set in Atlanta next weekend, not to mention two more against the A’s and a combined five against the Marlins and Nationals, but the script is advantageous for New York.
AL Wild Card
The Mariners fell to the Royals while the Rays took down the Blue Jays again, and now we’ve got Tampa Bay and Toronto tied a game and a half ahead of Seattle. By my count, the Tampa Bay win also gave them the tiebreaker advantage over Toronto, should it come down to head-to-head results, with the Rays now leading the season series 10-7 with only two left to be played. That would be consequential if these standings held, granting the Rays home-field advantage for the whole of the Wild Card Series.
NL Wild Card
The Brewers kept winning, and though the Phillies didn’t let themselves slip, the Padres did, falling to the Rockies after failing to score in the top of the tenth. That gap is just two games now.
The News
Julio Rodríguez is indeed going on the IL. They’re calling it a lower back strain. He played some Thursday and it evidently seized up on him. Major blow for the team if they don’t get him back at full strength.
Jon Heyman is reporting that Nolan Arenado is going to stay in St. Louis this offseason, even if he uses his opt-out to prompt contract renegotiations after overperforming expectations this year (I made fun of that deal—the Cardinals have been proving people like me wrong a lot this season). A little blow for the Cubs, but he is aging. Everybody ages. Even Albert Pujols, as hard as that is to believe from these last few months.
The Dodgers are taking Craig Kimbrel out of the closer role, and given his career numbers outside of save situations, I wonder if they’d consider keeping him off the postseason roster altogether. It’s sad, since he’s seemed (at least to me, from his time in Chicago) like a good dude, and it’s also very 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers. These guys are loaded and yet their rotation is hanging on by various threads and they have no go-to ninth-inning guy. FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds system loves the Mets. Maybe we all should.
Byron Buxton’s going to have his knee surgery, as the Twins wave the white flag. It isn’t supposed to be terribly significant, but I’d imagine that guy has a lot of rest and rehab awaiting him this offseason. Just so much health to regain.
The Cubs
I didn’t get to watch last night, but it’s exciting to see ten hits and nine walks in the box score. Looks like Javier Assad came back to Earth a little bit, but there’s a possible advantage in guys like him not being too good, which is that it removes the cover should ownership try to be stingy this offseason. Right now, the Cubs have Marcus Stroman and then no other starting pitchers they can be confident about. Justin Steele is the next-best thing, and he’s had just this one good year, a 119-inning performance. 119 innings is not as many as the Cubs will hope to need from him next year, nor is it necessarily a defining sample at the point Steele’s at in his career.
We got more information about Seiya Suzuki, and it’s good news: His move from the Paternity List to the Restricted List was just because the baby hadn’t (maybe still hasn’t) come yet. It makes me happy that the Cubs put him on the Paternity List preemptively. That is both a good thing to do and a smart thing to do. Give these guys as much family time as you can.
Down in the minors, Tennessee won their Division Series and will now play for the Southern League Championship, taking on the Marlins’ Pensacola Blue Wahoos in a series that appears to begin tomorrow.
Even More Notes
We’re running out of time, so we’re going to get to the viewing schedule and come back tomorrow to talk about your family, your religion, and the Green Bay Packers. Until then, friend.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
College Football (of interest, possibly worth watching)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Baylor @ Iowa State (ESPN2)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Clemson @ Wake Forest (ABC)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Duke @ Kansas (FS1)
- 12:00 PM EDT: TCU @ SMU (ESPNU)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Florida @ Tennessee (CBS)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Texas @ Texas Tech (ESPN)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Notre Dame @ North Carolina (ABC)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Michigan State (BTN)
- 3:30 PM EDT: James Madison @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Indiana @ Cincinnati (ESPN2)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Oregon @ Washington State (FOX)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Arkansas @ Texas A&M (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Iowa @ Rutgers (FS1)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Wisconsin @ Ohio State (ABC)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Kansas State @ Oklahoma (FOX)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Boston College @ Florida State (ACCN)
- 9:30 PM EDT: USC @ Oregon State (P12N)
- 10:30 PM EDT: Utah @ Arizona State (ESPN)
- 10:30 PM EDT: Stanford @ Washington (FS1)
College Football (to be aware of)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Kent State @ Georgia (ESPN+)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Maryland @ Michigan (FOX)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Central Michigan @ Penn State (BTN)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Rhode Island @ Pitt (ACCN)
- 2:00 PM EDT: UCLA @ Colorado (P12N)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Middle Tennessee State @ Miami (ACCN)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Tulsa @ Mississippi (SECN)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Northern Illinois @ Kentucky (ESPN2)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Southern Miss @ Tulane (ESPN+)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Vanderbilt @ Alabama (SECN)
- 7:30 PM EDT: UConn @ NC State (ESPN3)
MLB (of playoff race and home run chase significance, plus the Cubs)
- 1:05 PM EDT: Boston @ New York (AL), Pivetta vs. Germán (MLB TV)
- 4:05 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Philadelphia, Wright vs. Falter (MLB TV)
- 4:07 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Oakland, deGrom vs. Waldichuk (MLB TV)
- 6:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Tampa Bay, Manoah vs. Rasmussen (MLB TV)
- 6:35 PM EDT: Cubs @ Pittsburgh, Miley vs. Oviedo (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Cincinnati, Burnes vs. Ashcraft (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Seattle @ Kansas City, Gilbert vs. Bubic (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Colorado, Darvish vs. Kuhl (MLB TV)
