Programming note: We’ll have a full recap of College Football’s Week 4 up either later today or sometime tomorrow. In the meantime, here are our model’s updated College Football Playoff Probabilities.
The Pack are back on the field today, and it’s a game that could be largely important, but it’s more a measuring stick check-in than that. The probability of the Packers and Bucs finishing the season within a game of one another is relatively high, and the fact these are teams which should be contending for the NFC’s top seed amplifies the import, but we’re still early enough in the year that more than anything, we’re trying to see how the Green Bay Packers compare to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In the final injury report of the week, David Bakhtiari, Randall Cobb, Marcedes Lewis, and Christian Watson all remain questionable, while Sammy Watkins has gone on the IR with an injured hamstring, calling Patrick Taylor up from the practice squad to take his place on the active roster. I haven’t seen anything regarding Lewis’s likelihood of suiting up, but the reports say that Watson is unlikely to play and Cobb is likely to play, making the Packers’ receiving corps, outside of tight ends, Lazard/Doubs/Cobb/Toure/Winfree/Amari Rodgers, as far as I can tell. That’s a thin crew, and basically, I think it just means you need Aaron Jones to be a big part of the passing game, which is already the case given how much of a difference he’s making these days with the ball in his hands. If Bakhtiari doesn’t play, the offensive line will be the same as it was last week. We can deal with that.
The Bucs’ season is following a similar script to that of Green Bay, but with a slightly better draw affording them more time to figure things out. No losses yet, but the defense looks good and the offense isn’t clicking and the safe bet is that eventually, it will click. Hopefully it’s not today. The over/under on this is low—41.5 is the last I saw—and the spread’s only about a point, so I guess the market thinks the Packers are the better team right now, given the game’s in Tampa Bay, and I guess the market either thinks little of these two offenses or a lot of the defenses. I think a lot of the Bucs’ defense. I’d guess this has something to do with the Bucs’ offense.
So, hopefully the Bucs’ offensive complaints linger for at least another week, and hopefully the Packers can put together an efficient game even with a further slightened set of receivers. It’s a tough task, scoring against this defense and doing it when you’re only firing on a few cylinders. It’s a tough task, stopping Tom Brady when all he may need is 21 points to win.
Sandy Alcantara Is a Steed
I haven’t checked in on the Cy Young odds lately, but if fWAR’s a good proxy there, Carlos Rodón and Aaron Nola have passed Sandy Alcantara in the running. So, in case he doesn’t get his moment, a moment here to appreciate the man with 220 innings pitched already and a FIP/xERA combo only slightly above 3.00. He threw another eight innings yesterday. Struck out eleven. Walked only one. Allowed just three hits, and one earned run on a homer. The guy is electric, and I hope that when the Marlins trade from their rotation depth, they trade him for a haul so we get to watch him somewhere functional. That said, the fact the Marlins have turned him loose may be a sign of where baseball’s going with its approach to young pitchers, and for that, they probably deserve some credit.
Other baseball:
Aaron Judge
No home runs for Aaron Judge yesterday, though I’d imagine a lot of college football fans are more aware of his chase of Roger Maris than they previously were. Gotta love a good-for-the-game afternoon.
NL East
Atlanta won and the Mets lost, pulling this one down to one and a half games again. The Mets have the better matchup today, though it’s easy to underestimate JP Sears. Big day for William Contreras for Atlanta. Three hits, one walk, one home run.
NL Wild Card
Atlanta winning means Philadelphia lost, and with the Brewers staying…hot? (it’s hard to believe)…that gap is also down to a game and a half. It’s a two-loss gap, which is a little wider than a one-loss gap that’s also a game and a half, at least in the upper half of the standings, but it’s tight. The Padres beat the Rockies to move back half a game ahead of the Phils.
AL Wild Card
A win for the Mariners in Kansas City, a win for the Blue Jays in St. Petersburg. The Jays now lead the Rays by a game and the Mariners by a game and a half in the seeding chase.
The News
The Mariners have extended Luis Castillo for five years, keeping him in town through at least 2027, his age-34 season. Their window is opening, and that’s easier to talk about than to capture, but it’s a good time in Seattle.
Kris Bryant is not going to return this year for the Rockies, making his first year in Denver a 181-plate appearance debacle. He did finish with a 125 wRC+, so it’s not like he was bad when he was healthy, but he was rarely healthy. Hopefully the offseason allows him to reset and recover.
Dustin May’s going on the IL for the Dodgers with lower back tightness, as the best team in baseball continues to struggle to stay healthy on the mound. It’s reportedly unknown whether May will be ready for the beginning of the playoffs. Tony Gonsolin’s making a rehab start on Tuesday, and his upside is high, as are the upsides of Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson. But it’s just not the Mets’ rotation, and that’s a little scary for Los Angeles.
The Phillies should get Nick Castellanos back from the IL this week. He’s had a rough go in Philadelphia this year, but this is still helpful. He is still a good player. The injury itself is more a concern than the poor start to 2022.
Spencer Strider is going on the IL with an oblique strain, creating a high risk he’ll be unavailable through the postseason. Terrible timing for a team that has pitching options but isn’t loaded on that front.
Shane Baz is going to have Tommy John surgery, and Brandon Lowe’s officially out for the year, hitting the Rays with both short-term and long-term blows on the same day.
What Kind of Racetrack Is Texas?
NASCAR’s playoffs head to Texas today, and it’s unclear what we’ll find. We saw some bad racing there in the All-Star Race, but it’s an intermediate track, meaning it’s racing quite differently from the tracks we’d expect to compare it with. Brad Keselowski’s on the pole, highlighting the possibility of yet another non-playoff driver winning. With Talladega and a road course race up next this round, this would be, of course, a great one to win, but with that non-playoff driver possibility the importance of points racing is clear. Though I suppose on the other side of things, there are more spots to points race for if another non-playoff driver wins.
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Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
MLB (of playoff race and home run chase significance, plus the Cubs)
- 1:05 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Philadelphia, Morton vs. Gibson (MLB TV)
- 1:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Tampa Bay, Stripling vs. McClanahan (MLB TV)
- 1:35 PM EDT: Cubs @ Pittsburgh, Sampson vs. Ortiz (MLB TV)
- 1:40 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh, Peralta vs. Lodolo (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Seattle @ Kansas City, Castillo vs. Castillo (MLB TV)
- 3:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Colorado, Clevinger vs. Freeland (MLB TV)
- 4:07 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Oakland, Scherzer vs. Sears (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Boston @ New York (AL), Bello vs. Cortes (ESPN)
NFL (of interest)
- 1:00 PM EDT: Buffalo @ Miami (CBS)
- 1:00 PM EDT: Detroit @ Minnesota (FOX)
- 1:00 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Washington (FOX)
- 4:25 PM EDT: Green Bay @ Tampa Bay (FOX)
- 4:25 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Arizona (FOX)
- 8:20 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Denver (NBC)
NASCAR
- 3:30 PM EDT: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 (USA)
