The Athletic ran a piece yesterday about a potential Group of Five playoff. A key passage:
The administrators, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, made clear that nothing is imminent and they haven’t been presented with any numbers yet. But conversations are more real than they’ve ever been.
CBS has reported on this as well, but interestingly, I haven’t yet seen anything from ESPN on the topic, which points towards this either being something ESPN opposes or something that’s not deemed smoky enough to warrant a deeper dive. It’s always a little suspicious when private equity is the genesis of these ideas, because the incentives for private equity are different than those for schools and conferences. Private equity can afford to swing and miss a lot. Their industry is based on upside. Schools and conferences cannot afford to strike out.
Regardless of whether this is legitimate or not, a thought:
This is a bad idea.
But there is a way to change that.
If the Group of Five is going to make its own playoff for teams who didn’t make the College Football Playoff, the result is going to be a tournament a lot like the FCS’s existing playoff, minus the part where the winner claims a national championship at their level. Comparable football with lower stakes. If the Group of Five wants to formalize the divide between itself and the power conferences? Then sure. Add a mid-major national championship-ish thing, except you can’t call it that because one of your teams is in the real Playoff. If the idea, though, is to elevate mid-major FBS football, then the move should be to hold this playoff in November.
Here’s the concept:
Shorten the core conference schedule from eight or nine games to six or seven. From that, use some a committee or some rating system (our model’s proxy for the CFP rankings extends all the way through the FBS, if anyone’s interested) to pick the eight best Group of Five teams. Put those teams into a single-elimination bracket. Fill out the schedule with third and fifth and seventh-place games, and with continued conference play for teams who didn’t make the cut of eight. You could still have conference championship games if you wanted to, just for teams outside of the final two in the single-elimination bracket.
Would it be unusual to have so much of the schedule undetermined at the time the season begins? Yes. Would it raise travel costs for teams? A little, for some. Would it require NCAA approval? Maybe, but then again, maybe not, because the CFP itself is independent from the NCAA. What makes those things worth it is that this version of a Group of Five playoff would raise the likelihood the mid-major representative in the CFP is the Group of Five’s best team. That, in turn, would raise the likelihood of the Group of Five representative winning a CFP game, something that would actually move the Group of Five forward rather than signal an acceptance of relegation, as a true postseason playoff would.
The proposal in question is a lottery ticket for investors who are betting that people like single-elimination college football no matter the teams. The FCS shows us that’s probably a losing bet. The idea, though, has some merit. It’s just getting shoehorned into the wrong place on the calendar.
Will the Bears Stadium Get Built?
The Bears released renderings today for a new stadium still in the lakefront part of the city, but it’s more of a wish list than a plan. The Bears, notoriously stingy (the excuse is that the McCaskeys aren’t wealthy independent of owning the Bears, which is funny given the Bears are worth an estimated $6.3 billion), are asking for $2.3 billion from taxpayers at a time when the state of Illinois is already a high-tax state that is deeply in debt.
I suppose there’s a way this works for the Bears. Maybe Caleb Williams dazzles this fall, people get behind the Bears, and the thought of hosting a Super Bowl in Chicago (the stadium would be domed) is enough to convince some special interests. Maybe the White Sox’ stench (Jerry Reinsdorf would also like two billion dollars for a stadium, please) doesn’t rub off on the football team, and the public views the two requests separately.
In the end, though, it’s hard to believe that this is going to be a smooth process. It’s not supposed to open until 2028. That’s a long time from now, a time within which a lot can go wrong. And this is the Bears we’re talking about.
The Rest
MLB:
- Blake Snell’s already on the injured list, and I wonder how Jordan Montgomery feels about it. It’s an adductor strain, down in the hip area, and I’m unaware of any estimate yet of when he’ll return. If it’s like an oblique injury, it might be a month or two. The nice thing for the Giants is that Snell wasn’t originally a huge part of their 2024 plan, and that Jordan Hicks and Keaton Winn are off to really good starts (on the aggregate—Wicks had a tougher time on Sunday). The bad thing for the Giants is that Snell was a short-term investment. They only have him this year and maybe next year. They were expecting something like three WAR of production from the guy, and three wins could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. Even one win could be that, with how the NL’s shaping up.
The NBA:
- After impressive performances by the Timberwolves, Pacers, and Luka Dončić last night (it’s not that the Mavs played bad, it’s that Luka was especially good as the minutes ticked down), we get our last two Games 2 tonight. They’re the 1/8 matchups, and Celtics/Heat should be a formality, but the Thunder have a chance to assert themselves against the Pelicans, and if you’re a believer in the value of rest between series, the Thunder have a chance to get closer to having some breathing room before playing the Mavs or the Clippers next round.
The NHL:
- It wasn’t like the Jets had the game put away against Colorado, but the speed with which the Avalanche took control of that game was gutting for the home team, especially with Winnipeg now having to go play at elevation in Denver.
- If the Rangers win Game 3 against the Capitals on Friday, that series is going to get rough in Game 4, right? Tough task ahead for the refs?
- What a save by Sergei Bobrovsky. Excited for what tonight brings. Especially in Toronto and Dallas. No offense to the Oilers and Kings. I’m trying to jinx that series into getting good.
IndyCar:
- IndyCar handed out some massive penalties today to Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin, and a smaller one to Will Power. Evidently Team Penske created a glitch in Push-to-Pass which allowed their drivers to use it during restarts, something that’s not allowed. IndyCar discovered it on Sunday morning before the Long Beach race, then went back and reviewed tape of St. Petersburg, last month (this was the last IndyCar race for reasons of IndyCar being a little goofy). They found that Newgarden and McLaughlin took advantage of the glitch and that while Power’s team made it available to him, he didn’t use it. So, Newgarden and McLaughlin were retroactively disqualified and Power was docked ten points in the season standings. Wacky thing. Decent chance it ultimately decides the season championship.
Chicago:
- Cody Bellinger’s rib contusion* will require an IL stint. The bright side is that we get a chance to see Pete Crow-Armstrong, which could result in a revelation that he’s ready and thereby a deeper lineup when Bellinger returns. That is a narrow bright side. This is rough. Hopefully the IL stint is short.
- Great outing by Jordan Wicks, and good win by the Cubs, even if it would have been nice to see them put the Astros’ bullpen through the wringer a bit more.
*Update: He fractured his rib. More than a contusion.
