Warning: This is completely unedited. Notes I jotted down to make a post about this. Then, I looked at the notes and said…cleaning those up seems too time-consuming right now. More posts to be written, games start in an hour and a half. So, just notes on how I picked my NCAA Tournament and NIT brackets. To help me, I ran 10,000 simulations of each tournament (more like 3,000 for the NIT because I had to re-run some due to a home-court advantage error), starting with KenPom but then running them “hot,” meaning I allowed teams’ ratings to move based on results within each simulation. I used these in part to forecast how much chaos there would be in each tournament, aiming to pick roughly half that chaos in an attempt to straddle the line between giving myself a good chance in bracket pools and having fun (you could pick all favorites and have a fine chance, but that would not be very fun, and it’s of questionable value in a pool). The picks overall are:
First Four winners: Texas Southern, Wyoming, Wright State, Notre Dame
First Round winners: Gonzaga, Boise State, UConn, Arkansas, Alabama, Texas Tech, Davidson, Duke, Baylor, UNC, Saint Mary’s, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Purdue, San Francisco, Kentucky, Arizona, Seton Hall, Houston, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee, Loyola, Villanova, Kansas, San Diego state, Iowa, Providence, LSU, Colgate, USC, Auburn
To make Sweet Sixteen: Gonzaga, UConn, Texas Tech, Duke, Baylor, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, Loyola, Kansas, Iowa, LSU, Auburn
To make Elite Eight: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, UCLA, Kentucky, Arizona, Loyola, Kansas, Auburn
To make Final Four: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas
To make Championship: Gonzaga, Kansas
To win Championship: Gonzaga
NIT First Round winners: Toledo, Belmont, Florida, Xavier, Oklahoma, Colorado, Mississippi State, North Texas, SMU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, BYU, Texas A&M, Utah State, VCU, Wake Forest
To make NIT Quarterfinals: Belmont, Xavier, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Washington State, BYU, Texas A&M, Wake Forest
To make NIT Final Four: Xavier, Oklahoma, Washington State, Texas A&M
To make NIT Championship: Oklahoma, Texas A&M
To win NIT: Oklahoma
Now…the notes:
First Four, At-Large Games: Indiana’s justified favorite but overvalued by the market, will take Wyoming. Will take Notre Dame as the favorite over Rutgers – nothing Rutgers does so well ND can’t outplay them overall
First Four, Auto-Bids: Texas Southern’s a pretty big favorite as far as these things go, Wright State and Bryant are about equivalent but Bryant’s more notorious so I’ll go for value on Wright State (even though these don’t count—can’t stop the value-hunting)
First Round – top 3 seeds. Pretty good chance one loses. Aside from Wright State, I could see all the 16-seeds frustrating in some aspect of the game, but overall talent differential seems too strong. With the 15-seeds, Saint Peter’s is strong on defense but Tshiebwe is another thing coming, Jax St can shoot threes but Auburn’s good enough on the perimeter defense, nothing too enthralling about Delaware or CSUF. That leaves us with one of the 14’s, or zero and we carry over the acknowledgment an upset is likely. Wisconsin’s the most likely, and Colgate could wreck them on 3’s. Wreck them. Wisconsin has fine perimeter defense, but this is a risk, and if Johnny Davis isn’t 100%, their offense is in trouble. Yale isn’t inspiring and Purdue can turn to Edey if they need to (might not do it, but should). Montana State might run up the free throw count against Tech but Tech’s deep and overwhelming closer to half court. Longwood’s intriguing with their shooting and rebounding, but Tennessee’s better than a 90% favorite, which feels foolish. Leaving Wisconsin blank for now, taking the other three 3’s.
4-seeds. Highly unlikely UCLA loses, should get one loss from the other three. Akron does play slow and shoot a lot of threes, but it’s their ability to keep UCLA from pouring in buckets close to the hoop that’s suspect. Can see it, but overall probability is too high. Let someone else take that risk. Chattanooga could do it against Illinois, but they’ve failed to click so often and Silvio De Sousa doesn’t get to the free throw line as much as you’d hope. Vermont and South Dakota State are each very much in winnable probability territory. Probability says two of them and Colgate will win. Case for Vermont and South Dakota State both is their offense, but SDSU’s defense is rough, and they had a hard time in nonconference play keeping it close against decent teams. Providence can defend the perimeter, don’t like the luck to run out (well, I like it to run out, but not quite yet). Think Arkansas can escape Vermont by turning up the pace. Taking all the 4-seeds, wiping out Wisconsin on the other side of the luck equation (which I also like for LSU, as I’ll explain below). On track with half-chaos.
5-seeds. One of the four should lose. Iowa’s susceptible on defense, but Richmond doesn’t extend possessions or shoot all that efficiently. New Mexico State could cause UConn problems around the basket, but UConn should be able to out-tough them. UAB is good, but feels overpopular, and our questions about Houston’s defense are bigger when they’re playing a more multidimensional offense. Saint Mary’s has a good matchup with Wyoming in our bracket. Doing the thing where you don’t take any 12-seeds and hope for that to be the surprise. Carrying over the knowledge of one outstanding upset to the 6/11 line, though.
Expecting 6-seeds to go .500, and will pick as such, having left out 5-seed upsets. Colorado State’s luck hasn’t gotten as much attention as Wisconsin and Providence’s, but it’s high, and this’ll probably be an effective road game against a talented team. I don’t trust Iowa State’s offense to handle LSU’s aggression, and I think LSU can tear Iowa State apart on the offensive glass. Don’t feel like Will Wade’s a good-enough in-game coach to make this not happen, and Eason’s too big for Kalscheur to be a good option to stop him. Eason over Brockington. Believer in Virginia Tech, not a believer in Texas’s perimeter defense doing enough. Texas’s offense never fully found its groove, and they give up too many second-chance looks. Like Alabama over Notre Dame. Alabama’s defense is weak, and ND limits second chances, but the Tide might score in bursts against the Irish in transition, and if it’s Rutgers, Alabama will be a pretty big favorite.
7/10 and 8/9 are pretty much tossups, but looking ahead, we’re looking at 2.6 double-digit seeds in the sweet sixteen, so keeping that in mind with the 10’s…
I like Loyola and Murray State as KenPom favorites. Loyola has more options, and while E.J. Liddell’s probably underappreciated, don’t think he can do it all against a defense this good. Murray State/USF’s just a great matchup all around, but trust that San Francisco’s the better team, and no funky early tipoff time or anything like that. Late game Thursday night in Indy. Nonbeliever in Miami, so taking USC there, even though USC’s underwhelming. MSU/Davidson’s very much a tossup, will take Davidson as the more chaotic option.
Like San Diego State a lot against Creighton. Pretty big favorite on paper. Like Boise State as a value KenPom favorite against Memphis. Defense is really good and offense does enough. North Carolina’s a good bit better than Marquette, should give Marquette trouble on the boards. Seton Hall and TCU’s a tossup, but Seton Hall’s defense should make it too hard on TCU, even if TCU will get a zillion rebounds.
Second Round: Expecting one 1-seed to drop. Kind of like TCU over Arizona here because of the offensive boards and Kerr Kriisa’s injury, but Arizona has all that length, making one ask where TCU will put it once they do grab boards. Taking all the 1-seeds, though worth noting Gonzaga’s the only one more than 50% likely to make the Elite Eight out of the four.
Expecting 1.6 2-seeds to lose, and on top of the ignored probability of one 1-seed dropping, we should probably take at least one of them to go down. Like Auburn to beat USC on the basis of USC underwhelm. Think Kentucky’s really freaking good, so like them to beat San Francisco, though San Francisco does pop up a lot in our sim’s. Loyola’s actually more likely, at least in our simulations, to make the Sweet Sixteen than any 7, 8, or 9-seed, and that’s telling. Villanova might be only a three or four-point favorite here. We’ll ride the Ramblers. Then, there’s Duke. Duke’s defense is pretty rough, but Davidson’s is rougher. Could see Davidson shooting 60% from 3 and taking Duke down, but like Duke to score too much.
Only want one more double-digit seed (Iowa State’s the likeliest behind Loyola, by the way, but that LSU value is too much), and options are Virginia Tech, Michigan, and Colgate. Not taking Colgate. Taking LSU there. Not taking Michigan. Tennessee there. Virginia Tech against Purdue’s nonexistent defense? Pretty fun. That VT defense is weak, but they play slow, and if Purdue has to turn to Edey rather than Ivey…three’s worth more than two. In the 4/5’s and Alabama/Texas Tech, Texas Tech’s the better team by a lot, Iowa’s the better team by a lot, UCLA’s the better team by a lot, Houston’s probably better than Illinois and is therefore valuable, and UConn/Arkansas’s a tossup but UConn has a better overall chance of getting through, and Arkansas might get unnecessary love elsewhere because they’re more fun.
So, in the Sweet Sixteen, our half-chaos view has four 1-seeds, three 2-seeds, two 3-seeds, one 4-seed, three 5-seeds, one 6-seed, one 10-seed, and one 11-seed. There’ll probably be more surprises, but that’s our most realistic guess. Best guess is that two 1-seeds make the Elite Eight, one 2-seed, one 3-seed, one 4-seed, one 5-seed, one between the 7 and 9-lines, and one double digit seed. We’ll take the one double-digit seed, but mostly because we don’t have anyone between the 7 and 9 lines. Tshiebwe presents a more singular problem for Virginia Tech than anyone on Tennessee does for Loyola, so we’ll take Kentucky and Loyola in those two games.
Auburn has a great draw, we’ll take them to the Elite Eight, LSU did fire their coach, after all. Kansas is more well-rounded than Iowa, Gonzaga will be a big favorite against UConn. That leaves Arizona/Houston, Baylor/UCLA, and Texas Tech/Duke as our games.
We get in this situation every year with Houston. We pick them to the Final Four or the National Championship because we like them in early rounds and then their bracket opens up. I don’t want to, but it does look valuable…we’ll come back to it.
Texas Tech is a little better than Duke, but if you think Texas Tech’s going to get away with shit against Coach K…I hope you’re right. I don’t think you are. Love Texas Tech to death, think they’re so valuable, and…oh what the hell. Wouldn’t have either beating Gonzaga anyway. Taking Texas Tech. UCLA should give Baylor a great game, Houston should give Arizona a great game. Not putting myself in a spot to feel like I have to take Houston one step too far again (last year got burned by taking them against Loyola). Erring more conventional this year. Arizona, UCLA. Baylor’s great, but they’re too banged up.
Speaking of banged-up, Kerr Kriisa in the Elite Eight against Loyola…? Will he be back? Taking Gonzaga over Texas Tech because Gonzaga’s too good. Taking Kentucky over UCLA because I like Kentucky’s shot overall and it makes me feel better about picking Baylor to lose. Taking Kansas over Auburn as the better team (and as an erstwhile “Auburn isn’t that good” voice earlier in the year), and…
You’d expect one team seeded 6th or worse to make the Final Four. You’d expect two teams seeded 3rd or worse to make it, making one team 3rd or worse the half-chaos play. With this field, though, taking the best KenPom team in each region might be a better move. Kerr Kriisa’s good, but EvanMiya has him as just their sixth-most valuable player. The path just isn’t there unless Houston beats them, and that’s a stretch that won’t get you that much value in a pool. Hopefully the Kriisa injury’s overblown by the market, Tennessee’s ability’s overblown by the market, and Arizona has the value.
I’m tempted to take Kentucky over Gonzaga. Will have the winner winning it all regardless. But in the simulations, national champions broke down like this:
- Gonzaga: 15%
- Arizona: 6%
- Kentucky: 6%
- Houston: 6%
- Baylor: 5%
- Kansas: 5%
- Auburn: 5%
- Tennessee: 5%
- UCLA: 4%
- Texas Tech: 4%
- Villanova: 4%
- Iowa: 4%
- Duke: 4%
That says a lot about not only how good Gonzaga is, but how hard the path is for Arizona, Baylor, and Kentucky, the three teams that make the most sense to beat Gonzaga. I’ll take Kansas over Arizona to shake it up a little (and because Kansas has such a good path that they’re the third-most likely team to make the championship), but then it’s Gonzaga all the way. Basically, enough people will pick Kentucky that if Kentucky does win, I’ll still have to compete within those who won, and 1-in-18’s a lot worse than 1-in-7. If Kentucky was at 9% or 10% or was even just the clear second-most likely winner, it’d change things, but they’re one of five teams all around the same national championship probability, and Gonzaga’s more than twice as likely as any of those five to win it all. So, giving myself a 1-in-7 chance of being in the mix, which is actually more like a 1-in-7 chance plus a 1-in-4 chance we get someone completely unexpected who no one in my pools picked plus another 1-in-7 chance the winner is someone like Houston or Villanova or Kansas who maybe only one person picked, leaving me in the hunt for being in the money. A 50% chance, then, of being in the mix, and a 50% chance of getting crushed.
On to the NIT:
Most likely 12 seeded teams win in the first round, picking 13 myself, three upsets will be…
Not A&M, SMU, Xavier (all 90% or better, at least in the sims, which can have some wiggle but are close to the true odds)
Not North Texas (not an awesome matchup but only concern is turnovers)
Not BYU (only concern is a lot of LBSU free throws, but BYU’s depth helps assuage that concern)
Not VCU (Princeton’s got guys in the transfer portal, they can play but the chance of distraction takes some of the appeal away, also feel like their defense will let VCU get away with VCU’s offense)
Yes Toledo (not a great defense, pretty good offense, playing at home and with Dayton without Mali Smith there’s probably value here in a pool setting)
Not Miss State (too much value, don’t have to rain threes to beat this team, ugly but like Miss State with what’s actually an upset)
Yes Belmont (should cause Vandy offense a lot of issues, get away with some of own weaknesses. Might help to not shoot as many threes)
Not Oklahoma (too good overall, no clear route to Missouri State winning even though it’s a tough draw for OU)
Not Washington State (Santa Clara’s rebounding’s going to hurt, could get torched)
Not Florida (I like the matchup for Iona but it feels like there’s probably so much hype because of the surrounding stuff that we’re discounting Florida’s chance)
Not Utah State (better than their results, Oregon’s worse than the results that got attention)
Not Colorado (good matchup, but Bonnies just don’t have much they do that well, forcing Colorado to shoot threes might help Colorado)
Not Wake (should cause trouble inside for Towson)
Yes Northern Iowa (SLU might shoot them off the floor, but UNI should win the free throw battle)
Only 4 top 2-seeds to the quarterfinals – will pick 5; 1.5 unseeded teams, will pick 1
Belmont the choice for the unseeded team, assuming they’re playing at home, fine matchup against Toledo
BYU, therefore, to beat Northern Iowa (where there isn’t much to love on BYU’s side of the matchup)
Of the next six, need four home teams and two visitors
A&M is the safest on paper, even playing good Utah State, so going to trust that
Xavier also very safe, and trust them the most out of the four on this side (Iona just isn’t that good overall, though obviously they could definitely do it)
VCU fairly weak shot, taking Wake even if VCU’s going to make it ugly
Washington State can extend enough possessions
Mississippi State has bad odds because of playing that road game, but if they do get past UVA, like them against North Texas. Better team overall. Also, not too inspired by Colorado’s chances against Oklahoma
Looking like 1.2 1-seeds, 1.0 2-seed, 0.6 3-seeds. This is where Oklahoma finally passes A&M in the odds, taking them over Mississippi State. Taking Xavier over Belmont, because Belmont has too many potential pitfalls (including possible road game in Dayton), will take Wazzu over BYU as the wildcard, and then it’s either Wake or A&M. Either makes sense, Wake’s probably better, A&M’s playing at home, bigger chance Wake has an opt-out we haven’t heard about so I’ll take the Aggies.
Oklahoma over Xavier feels pretty clear. Want to take Washington State over A&M, and think there’s a good chance, but having two road games makes that feel like a bad value play too. Will go with A&M, hope on early round luck to sneak me past the others with an Oklahoma-over-A&M championship (yes, taking the overall favorite).
