A statistical crime was committed last night, and the victim was Joe Kelly’s ERA.
In the eighth inning against San Francisco, the Dodgers found themselves in a tough spot. They trailed 4–1, the bases were loaded, nobody was out, and the bullpen was fatigued. Obviously, they turned to that bullpen’s workhorse and best weapon, an icon who has carried multiple franchises through situations just like this.
Joe Kelly did his job. He induced a pop out. He induced a groundout. With runners then on second and third, the call came from the dugout to intentionally walk LaMonte Wade Jr., creating a force opportunity at all bases. From there, Joe Kelly only induced more ground balls until he struck Michael Conforto out. Solid inning, solid outing, crisis averted. The Dodgers trailed 8–1, but there was no crisis. As I said: The crisis was averted.
There was the one crime, though, and that was this: Because Wade scored during the ground ball fest, and because Joe Kelly was technically the pitcher who allowed Wade to reach base, Joe Kelly was charged with an earned run. His ERA jumped from 3.94 to 4.50 because of it. That’s a big difference! When a reliever comes in with a 3.94 ERA, fans say, “This is a solid relief pitcher.” When a reliever comes in with a 4.50 ERA, fans squeal, “Eek! I’m nervous!”
ERA is lying to Dodgers fans.
Here’s my stance on the matter, as a Joe Kelly expert:
- If we’re going to have earned runs, they should be charged to the pitchers who earned them. In this case, that was Yohan Ramírez. Nothing against Ramírez, but the Dodgers wouldn’t have walked Wade had Ramírez not left the bases loaded. Remember: I’m thinking of the fans here.
- Since ERA is inaccurate, we should probably get rid of it. Since the scale is the same, it should be an easy transition to FIP, where Joe Kelly’s 2.58 is in the top seven percent of the league. Most serious baseball people are using FIP already anyway. And in this case, even FIP punishes Joe Kelly for the walk! Really, Joe Kelly’s FIP should be in the top six percent of the league. Still, it’s more fair than ERA. Joe Kelly is not a 4.50 pitcher, and it’s disrespectful to the sport to call him that.
