Well, we lost Michigan State. They aren’t in our NIT Bracketology this morning. It’s close as can be, of course, and we do get Drake, but if forced to choose…sorry, Drake. We know who’s drawing the eyeballs.
The NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Michigan State, Stanford
Neither of these teams played. Neither did those who replaced them. But the field is so tight that collateral damage (and collateral benefit) happens. In roundabout ways, things like Duke beating Boston College lift Michigan State up.
Also, because our model’s a Monte Carlo simulator, it always has a little wobbling day-to-day, even at 10,000 simulations a night. If you flip a coin 10,000 times, you’ll always be close to 5,000 heads and 5,000 tails, but there will be noise. Some of this is noise. And it’s close enough in the seed list for noise to be the difference.
So the bigger takeaway? Michigan State and Drake are extremely close. So are Stanford and Toledo.
Moving In: Drake, Toledo
I’ve undersold Toledo’s case for the last week or so. They can make it even if they lose in the MAC Tournament. Our model doesn’t expect them to win the MAC Tournament, and it has them making the NIT, so that’s actually the expectation, in a way (were there percent probabilities, Toledo would still be under 50%, but…you get the idea, and if you don’t, honestly, it’s ok—spend that time somewhere else if you can).
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
Stanford
Minnesota
Providence
Kentucky
North Carolina State
Richmond
Marshall
Dayton
Marquette
Georgia
Belmont
Davidson
Next out of Line:
Above the field, from closest to close:
Michigan State
SMU
Boise State
Colorado State
Syracuse
Wichita State
Maryland
Virginia Tech
UCLA
Louisville
Oklahoma
Rutgers
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Today’s notes:
- Duke avoided disaster yesterday, and avoided disaster by 35 points.
- We’re still counting the Horizon League’s automatic bid streak as intact, because Cleveland State knew they couldn’t get one by losing and therefore won. Just for the hell of it. Nothing else to be gained by means of that win.
- NC State and Syracuse are playing right now. Each are in the NITuation. Each is rather close to the NIT. Can we make it any more obvious?
- Duke plays Louisville, and the Blue Devils may yet need a win to find their way to the field. Hard to say for sure, though. They’re favored, and they’re not comfortably in, which implies winning doesn’t even mean they’re comfortably in.
- Minnesota tries to stay alive and end their eleven-game losing streak, which doesn’t actually exist: They’ve only lost seven straight, but doesn’t it feel like eleven? Impressive they’re so close to the NIT, even having done that. They play Northwestern.
- Marquette might be hot, having won four of five. They also were borderline expected to win three of those five, so let’s cool the jets. They play Georgetown this afternoon, trying to climb the ladder from which they made such a crushing fall.
- Penn State plays Nebraska. We don’t think a loss takes Penn State out of our model’s bracketology, but we’d imagine it does take them out of the NIT, because of the optics thing and their overall W-L. We do not know, though.
- Xavier plays Butler. Not the worst idea to lose.
- Providence plays DePaul. Losing would be the worst idea.
- Stanford plays Cal and needs to win.
- Marshall plays Rice and needs to win.
- Oklahoma plays Iowa State and needs to lose.
- Colgate plays Bucknell and needs to lose (not quite in the NITuation but what a loss that would be, and Colgate, like Penn State, really h*cks up our model).
- North Texas plays MTSU and needs to win.
Bona NIT.
