Getting on this early because, well, it was an early game.
The thoughts:
1. That play.
If you haven’t watched it…
This could be its own lengthy post, but let me just say that our favorite parts over here, beyond the play itself, were Anthony Rizzo’s reaction and Jim Deshaies yelling that Báez was invisible.
It ended up being enormously consequential. The Cubs scored two runs thanks to it—one on the play, one when Ian Happ singled in Báez. The Cubs also won by two runs. It doesn’t exactly work like that, but it also doesn’t exactly not work like that.
2. Kyle Hendricks did the home run thing again.
But he didn’t do too much of it. Strong results from the starter, who did his job even if it wasn’t his best day ever (and he was probably a bit lucky with home run timing).
3. Patrick Wisdom!
The Cubs are digging deep into their minor league depth right now, so it was fun to see some of that depth come through with the home run. And a bit comforting, considering we seem to be about to see a lot of Patrick Wisdom & Co.
4. Kris Bryant: MVP contender.
We’ve stopped reacting as much to Bryant’s great games (he hit another home run today, with a single thrown in there for good measure), but he’s still right up there near the top of the National League in WAR, and even before today, he had a 142 wRC+ since taking that pitch to the hand in Cleveland earlier this month.
5. Ryan Tepera: Former MVP Vote Recipient.
Maybe Tepera’s been showing Bryant how it’s done.
The reliever, recipient of an accidental placement on an MVP ballot last season, came through in a big way, getting the four-out save to preserve the sweep. And what a happy sweep it was.
***
Around the Division:
The Reds did lose that suspended game from yesterday, and have yet to play tonight. The Padres and Brewers are tied at five in the eighth as this is typed. The Cardinals have yet to play.
Standings right at this very moment:
T-1. Cubs: 27-22
T-1. St. Louis: 27-22
3. Milwaukee: 24-25
4. Cincinnati: 21-26
5. Pittsburgh: 18-31
Tomorrow (since we’re previewing tomorrow’s game today), the Brewers take the Reds’ place in Washington with Brett Anderson set to face Jon Lester. The Cardinals will have their second game in Arizona, with Johan Oviedo pitching for the Cards and the Diamondbacks’ starter officially TBA. The Reds, of course, are playing the Cubs, and the Pirates will host the Rockies for some commiseration.
Up Next:
Game 1 against the Reds back at Wrigley.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
It’s looking cool and rainy at the moment, with temperatures around 50, the wind howling in from center, and rain probabilities upwards of 50%. It’s possible there will be holes in the rain and we’re just too far out to see them, and it’s supposed to be light rain, but should be a nasty, nasty day. Winds in the 25 mph range.
Starting Pitchers:
Vladimir Gutierrez vs. Adbert Alzolay
The Opponent:
It’s Gutierrez’s MLB debut. The 25-year-old served a PED suspension last year, so you may hear some about that.
He isn’t a significant prospect for the Reds, but he’s got a good arm and something of a solid pitch assortment. The Cubs should be able to hit him, but we’ll see how healthy they are, and we’ll see what the weather looks like.
As for the Reds as a team: Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, and Nick Senzel are all on the injured list. It sounds like Moustakas could be back this weekend. Unclear about Votto from my cursory search. Senzel had a minor knee surgery and is going to be out for a while yet.
The Numbers:
No line yet on the game, but I’d expect the Cubs to be valued at roughly 60% likely to win by the market, so something like a -160 moneyline might be in order. The over/under is hard to predict, with the wind, but maybe somewhere around seven?
Cubs News:
Anthony Rizzo sat again today with the bad back, and David Ross made it sound like a no-brainer pregame, which is concerning. The Cubs are in this boat where they have to cut a pitcher to add a position player if they want one, so Rizzo going to the IL seems unlikely, but he may miss a few more days. Also might be back tomorrow. We don’t know. Backs are weird.
Cubs Thoughts:
We said this morning that 45-36 was the goal by the end of June now, and that was with a 3-1 mark combined against the Pirates and Marlins. One of those is down.
If the game gets in tomorrow, the Cubs would do well to win it, as they would with every game. You want to take the home series from the Reds before this brutal stretch coming up, and this is the most advantageous matchup of the weekend (provided, again, that it happens). It’s a take-care-of-business day. (And hey, Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Chafin should be available again!)
Final thought is that we might hear a lot about all these day games this next week and we might see a swoon in a week or two that has some tie to missed sleep right now. Weird thing, but a thing nonetheless. Big shift to the schedule playing all these afternoons. So keep an eye on that, and win a bunch of games now so that if you have to recombobulate later you’ve got some cushion to do it.
