Well, well, well. They did it. I did it. We all did it.
I waited long enough to write the Senators’ season preview that, lo and behold, they signed Brady Tkachuk! He’ll miss a game or a few, but what are a few games when you have seven more seasons on the contract? (We’ll get to what a few games are.) The black eye has been abated. Life is good once more.
There are a few ways to structure a season preview. One of those is to go through the roster. The problem with that, for me, is that the roster’s always changing and I don’t have a good enough grasp on who does what in hockey (I mean, I know the basics once they’re on the ice, but generally speaking? This stuff’s acquired knowledge, and I’m still acquiring.) to really get a handle on it all. That said, yes, we’ll talk about Zub. I know enough that we must talk about Zub.
So, uh, here are questions I have for the Senators. I don’t think they’re that dumb.
What will the cost of Tkachuk’s absence be?
This is the most immediate question. Tkachuk missed all of training camp, signing only today, the morning of the Sens’ first game. It’s unclear when Tkachuk will first play, and it’s unclear how long it will take to get the team to where it would be were he in Ottawa all along. We won’t know for sure how many points will be cost, but it figures to be at least some, which matters because of…
Will the Senators make the playoffs?
…the biggest question.
The Sens are on the rise, and the messaging is that they’ll be competitive, but the preseason point totals in the sportsbooks had our guys with the fifth-lowest number in the league. Last year, the Senators finished 20th in gelo (we’ll have our gelo model up soon—Joe’s just got to finish putting together the offense/defense ratings and then build the actual simulator), but that’s out of playoff territory, and the Atlantic Division’s tough (look at me knowing that thing). Tougher than the North was.
Based on all of that, including the point total coming from mid-Tkachuk-negotiations, it seems like the ceiling for the team is surprise playoff berth and the floor is fighting it out with the Sabres and Red Wings at the bottom of the division.
For whatever it’s worth, our preseason gelo rankings for the Atlantic, which are heavily based on those Vegas point totals, are as follows:
Tampa Bay: 3.05, 2nd in NHL
Toronto: 3.01, 3rd in NHL
Boston: 2.99, 5th in NHL
Florida: 2.97, 6th in NHL
Montreal: 2.85, 18th in NHL
Detroit: 2.70, 26th in NHL
Ottawa: 2.67, 28th in NHL
Buffalo: 2.61, 30th in NHL
Anyway, if the Sens narrowly miss the playoffs or are in danger of narrowly missing the playoffs after a slow start…the Tkachuk thing is gonna have a little bit of a sour taste, even if it’s accompanied by some optimism.
Is this the core?
Tkachuk. Thomas Chabot. Drake Batherson. Connor Brown. Tim Stützle. Josh Norris. Brown’s an unrestricted free agent after next season, but the other five are likely here for a good while, and the future of the franchise is largely riding on them. Tkachuk, Chabot, and Batherson in particular have been locked up in significant deals. Tkachuk or Chabot is likely to become the captain, a title they’re then likely to hold for a while. A lot rests on these skates.
How much movement will the youth movement provide?
Shane Pinto’s the big one here, joining the team midway through last season after finishing up his college play at North Dakota. Yes, he’s older than Stützle, but Stützle’s more of a known quantity at this point. Pinto’s been there for a smaller sample.
Behind Pinto…who else comes up? Really. I don’t know. Who are the rookies? Who are the potential rookies? Who are the guys who might not meet the rookie threshold but might play some and might then be rookies next year? (I’m assuming the NHL has some baseball-like threshold at which a guy stops being a rookie.)
All square in goal?
Matt Murray and Anton Forsberg are the guys for now, with Filip Gustavsson starting the year in Belleville. I have no idea how good any of them should reasonably be expected to be.
Artem Zub?
I know enough to know that Artem Zub is a thing and that part of the thing is a question. He was a great piece last year, especially in that wild comeback against the Leafs, and he’s a cult hero mostly for being so darn mysterious. The reasonable expectation? He scores 40 goals, finishes with a +25 plus/minus, and kills a man but we later find out it was a noble act of bravery that saved many lives.
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First game tonight. Preview for that later today.
