Well, it’s begun. The Cubs traded Joc Pederson last night. For Bryce Ball, who is now, per FanGraphs, the Cubs’ 17th-best prospect (18th or 19th if the Cubs sign both Jordan Wicks and James Triantos, as is expected).
It’s one of those trades where it seems like the Cubs kind of got a lot for Pederson, especially since the report, as of now, is that they aren’t taking on any of the—I believe it’s $4.5M—that he’s owed (that report could be incorrect). In fact, the return is significant enough that it makes you wonder if there’s something Atlanta doesn’t like about Bryce Ball, especially with the DH likely coming to the National League and Freddie Freeman hitting free agency this offseason, introducing at least a chance that the reigning MVP leaves town.
Atlanta’s in a strange place, though. They’re below .500, in third place in their division, four games back of the Mets, and they just lost one of the best players in the game to a torn ACL. Their playoff chances, per FanGraphs, are just 8.1%, and I don’t know if those simulations included Pederson or not but he doesn’t figure to alter their outlook so significantly as to immediately make them a playoff contender.
With the trade happening so early, perhaps the explanation is that Atlanta, with Freeman hitting free agency, really wants to make a run this year and is willing to flip Pederson for a lesser prospect than Ball in two weeks if they can’t put something together, with the downgrade from Ball to his replacement worth these two weeks of trying. Maybe the explanation is that their calculations include a discount on the Mets based on the Mets’ tendency towards chaos. Maybe they just made a bad trade.
Whatever the case, the Cubs have a left-handed hitting first baseman now with big power potential who could debut as soon as next year. He’s not a top-100 prospect, but he’s in that range where his mean expectation is to produce something like half a WAR over his career, bolstering that block of guys (the 10th-19th range in the Cubs’ system) by that much more through diversifying assets (his upside is much higher than half a WAR, of course).
Ball could, theoretically, be part of the replacement for Rizzo if Rizzo lands elsewhere after this offseason, but it’d still be pretty surprising to see the captain moved. More likely, Ball’s upside fit is to start spelling Rizzo at first base next year or the following year so the big guy can DH more.
As for Pederson: The Cubs didn’t get a lot out of him on the field overall. He was a below-average hitter and just a slightly above-replacement level player, clocking in with a 95 wRC+ and a 0.2 fWAR. He was a lot of fun, though, and he materialized into this high-round-draft-pick equivalent who isn’t far from major league ready. That’s a good use of whatever they spent on him, which seems to be about $5M or $7.5M.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers bought Kyle Lobstein from the Nationals this week to add to their relief pitching depth. The 2008 second-round pick has thrown nearly 130 innings over parts of four non-sequential major league seasons, and he has a 4.49 FIP and a 5.22 ERA to show for it. He goes to their minor league system. Just some depth.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 53-39, 80.5%
2. Cincinnati: 48-42, 15.3%
T-3. Cubs: 44-46, 2.5%
T-3. St. Louis: 44-46, 1.6%
5. Pittsburgh: 34-56, 0.0%
Adrian Houser vs. Tyler Mahle in Cincinnati tonight. Kevin Gausman vs. TBD in St. Louis.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Arizona
When:
8:40 PM Chicago Time
Where:
The desert.
Weather:
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed all weekend.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Madison Bumgarner
The Opponent:
The Diamondbacks have been, to date, the worst team in baseball, with a 26-66 record that puts them on pace to win fewer than 50 games, and nearly fewer than 45 games. On paper, though, they’re a 71-win team, so look the heck out. They’re missing Carson Kelly, Asdrúbal Cabrera, and Ketel Marte, with only Marte seemingly possible to return this weekend. They’re also missing some pitchers, including Zac Gallen.
Bumgarner has also been hurt, and will be making his first start since June 2nd. He’s had a weird year. The seven-inning no-hitter came amidst a five-start stretch in which he allowed just three earned runs, posting a 0.90 ERA and a 2.16 FIP. In the four starts following that, though, he lasted just an average of four innings per outing while allowing eighteen earned runs, for a 10.13 ERA backed by a 7.29 FIP. Then, the injured list.
We’ll see what we get from the big fella tonight.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -145 favorites. The Diamondbacks are at +120. That works out to about a 57% win probability. The over/under’s at nine and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Jason Adam has been re-signed to a minor league deal. Matt Duffy began his rehab assignment. And, as mentioned, Joc Pederson has been traded. We’ll see who takes his spot on the active roster. Eric Sogard might be eligible to come off the IL today. Might be tomorrow, though, and he might not be ready either way. We could also see a pitcher, and the Cubs then just playing with twelve position players for a bit. The plan is to have Duffy and David Bote back soon, but this does lessen the roster crunch a bit, potentially keeping Sogard and Rafael Ortega in the organization depending upon a whole lot of trade and injury variables. One would assume Duffy will take the 40-man spot shortly, assuming there aren’t any setbacks.
Cubs Thoughts:
As the worst team in baseball to date, the Diamondbacks are beatable, and I think the Cubs would do well to win two or three games this weekend. Ideally three, but that’s a lot to ask against anybody, especially now that you’re officially a seller.
If you want to cling to hope, the Cubs do get to play the Diamondbacks again next weekend too, and they play the Cardinals in between those, and the Brewers play the Royals after the Reds but then they have to host the White Sox, so there is a path for a rebirth over the next ten days. It’s just a very narrow path. And it comes while the team has already traded away one eighth of the starting lineup and some guys may already be giving up.
