The Indiana Hoosiers were 15-4 on January 23rd. They’d just beaten Michigan State at home, another feather in a cap that included those of Ohio State, Florida State, and no one else of very much note. Still, it was a good-looking cap. Our King, Joe Lunardi (separate entity from Our Prince, Joe Stunardi, but just as handsome), who dedicates much energy to keeping the people informed about the degree to which various teams will miss the NIT, had IU something like 11 or 14 spots above the fabled tournament.
Things did not look good.
But then, Indiana took a day off defensively against Maryland, dropping a must-lose game by just one point. From there, they took care of business on a trip out east, scoring just 49 against Penn State before losing comfortably to Ohio State. Returning home, they pissed off Bob Knight in Assembly Hall for the first time in a while, losing to Purdue. Finally, they beat Iowa and then lost yesterday to Michigan, by 24.
“Congratulations,” you say. “You just read us Indiana’s schedule. What’s the point of all this?”
Before I answer, let me say thank you—we’ve been working on my reading around here ever since I misunderstood a Bitcoin price and cost us forty-five dollars last August. Now, the answer:
Indiana is in NIT contention.
That’s right, friends and fryers. The Hoosiers are back for more after having all that fun last year and none of that fun in 2017 under Tom Crean. But they’re not safe yet.
Our model has the Hoosiers projected to land a few spots above the NIT cut line. It also expects them to go something like 3-5 the rest of the way. All the games are losable. Well, until you get to the Big Ten Tournament, at which point it will be very hard to lose to whichever of Nebraska and Northwestern Indiana will most likely be playing. But before that? They can be lost. The question is whether Indiana will lose them.
Going 3-5, depending how they do it, might be enough to sneak the Big Ten into the NIT, saving the league from what would have been an ignominious collective showing. But it seems a better idea to go 2-6. Lose the next four. Beat Minnesota or Wisconsin at home. Lose to the other one of those guys. Beat Nebraska or Northwestern. Don’t even show up the next day.
It’s not an easy path, but nobody has ever said that the NIT is easy (and if they have, that’s just disrespectful to some very hard-working bloggers and the Pac-12). Archie Miller knew the challenges that would await him when he took the job at Indiana. It’s a hard place to win NIT’s. But he’s got a shot, and frankly, there’s a piece of me rooting for him.
