Archie Miller might soon be on the hot seat.
Over his three seasons in Bloomington, the angry young wizard’s crowning achievement is an NIT quarterfinal appearance, and while that’s a lot to be proud of, Indiana University is not a quarterfinal-appearance kind of school. Or at least, it doesn’t want to be.
It’s no secret that there are greater ambitions in the cradle of American basketball than to win just two games in the latter half of March, no matter the grandeur accompanying those victories. The Hoosier athletic department has made it clear that if you don’t win an NIT, you will get fired, and if you do win an NIT, you’ll still get fired, but only after about two NIT-less decades and one very publicly choked amateur athlete.
Nevertheless, the draw is mighty. Winning an NIT at Indiana makes you a legend. Want proof? Think of the four biggest names in Indiana hoops. What do they all have in common? That’s right. Bob Knight, Mike Woodson, Ray Tolbert, and Butch Carter were all part of that 1979 team that took down hated Purdue on sport’s greatest stage, with Carter’s jumper with five seconds remaining grabbing the school what remains, to this day, its basketball program’s only title.
Miller can’t be Woodson, or Tolbert, or Carter. But he can be Bob Knight.
After ’79, Knight had just one more brush with glory in Indiana. No, beyond the near miss in 1985, the coach didn’t do a whole lot in the postseason. Still, he’s a titan in the state—presumably, the kind of figure Miller aspires to be. It’s attainable. No one would argue that Indiana winning an NIT is impossible. But it’s a difficult task, especially when you consider that putting your program in a position where it might win an NIT is yet another thing that can get a Big Ten coach fired.
What, then, does Miller need to do?
Well, he may need to act now.
Not now now. It’s May. But this coming season.
The dance can only go on so long before the powers that be in Bloomington go searching for its next pulsing mass of fury that’s capable of wearing a suit and pacing a sideline. At some point, Miller’s leash will run out, and while he can prolong it by missing the NIT on the high side, the longer one does that, the riskier it becomes that a program will never get back to the sweet spot it previously occupied.
Yes, 2020-21 might need to be the year for IU. Frankly, this year may have needed to be the year, but that’s out the window at this point, barring dramatic advancements in the realm of time travel and highly specific decisions made by those making those advancements.
What, then, needs to happen for Miller to do what he needs to do?
Nothing impossible. But it’s a narrow needle to thread.
The locker room doesn’t need to hang together the whole season. If there are problems, they can fester for a bit. But the locker room does need to come together early in March. You can’t win an NIT if players don’t want to be there.
Trayce Jackson-Davis and Khristian Lander need something to prove. They need to be on the court for Indiana to have a shot at winning the thing. Miller has a good enough track record on this piece, having gotten Romeo Langford at least near the court during the 2019 NIT, but it’s not going to be easy, especially while, again, playing badly enough to make the NIT in the first place. Which is why…
Maui must go terribly. Losses need to be grabbed when they’re there, especially against fellow NIT hopefuls like Stanford, Alabama, Texas, Davidson, Providence, UNLV, and even North Carolina (yes, it’s a loaded Maui field this fall, friends—which is why we all must socially distance now, to ensure basketball is played as scheduled). The pickings are ripe for Miller’s team. New pieces to fit together. A potential absence of veteran leadership. Mediocre opponents who won’t be known to be mediocre at the time.
In-conference performance must be precise. Entering the heart of the Big Ten season, Indiana will know roughly what mark it needs to earn a high seed in the NIT without risking missing it altogether. That’ll likely be somewhere in the 18-win range, and assuming they take care of business and lose two at the Lahaina Civic Center and one in Indianapolis against Butler, the Hoosiers will need to win a lot at home and very little on the road to land in that window. We’ll know more when the season’s actually underway, but it’s important to be prepared for this stage of the game, because there will be little room for error.
As for right now? It seems like Miller’s playing it perfectly, balancing the downgrades (Justin Smith’s entry of the transfer portal) with the upgrades (Lander’s reclassification). There’s just enough chaos to sow doubt, and just enough to sow hope.
Again, though, it’s only May. He’s got a long way to go.
