The Pac-12’s hopes of ending its playoff drought took a hit Saturday night, with Oregon falling in Tempe. The Ducks weren’t in a great spot to begin with—they had Utah looming, and no guarantee that winning out would be enough to trump a one-loss Alabama, or a one-loss Oklahoma, or even a one-loss Baylor (though that last one was close to guaranteed). Still, they entered the weekend one of the favorites to grab the fourth spot, which still is up for grabs. They left with only Rose Bowl hopes and a chance to play spoiler.
Here’s how that shook up the race, and everything else this weekend’s games changed, through the eyes of our model:
Utah: Playoff Favorite?
Unless you’re defining favorite in a deterministic method in which the better team wins each remaining game, Utah is not a playoff favorite. They are, however, still very much alive, and by extension, the Pac-12 is very much alive. Utah enters the penultimate week of games with a sizable lead over Alabama and Oklahoma in playoff probability (26.3% for Utah, 16.5% for Alabama, 14.5% for Oklahoma), despite still having a lower conference championship probability than the Sooners (56.7% for Utah, 68.2% for Oklahoma).
It’s far from guaranteed that victories over Colorado and Oregon would be enough to get Utah in the field. It likely depends in part on how the Utes look against each (a close game against Colorado could spell trouble), as well as how Oklahoma plays in Bedlam and against Baylor, and how Alabama performs against Auburn. It obviously depends in larger part on other results. A Georgia victory over LSU could be disastrous for Utah, as could the Big Ten West champion knocking off a previously undefeated Ohio State.
We don’t know how close Utah is to Alabama right now. Our model thinks the gap isn’t very large (more on that below), but there’s no way to know for certain. Barring a surprise in the rankings, we won’t learn more this week either.
The Big 12
Oklahoma won again, keeping it in the race. Baylor also won, helping keep Oklahoma in the race. I phrase it that way because our model still sees little real hope for Baylor. Their nonconference schedule was weak. They’ve had a lot of narrow escapes. Even with the committee reversing course last week and erasing what had been a surprisingly (relative to precedent) harsh evaluation of the Bears, they’re far from in good shape in the playoff race. Our model has them at only 0.3% likely to make the field, and that could evaporate as error margins tighten following another round of rankings tomorrow night.
What Baylor does do, though, is give Oklahoma a potential two-time two-loss opponent that’s only lost to them. Our model clearly believes Utah is better positioned to make the field if both teams win out, but it’s giving Oklahoma a chance.
Number One
Even with Ohio State notching another impressive victory, our model expects LSU to retain the number one ranking. It does, however, believe LSU and Ohio State have been treated contrarily by the committee relative to precedent, with LSU getting more credit than most teams have with similar résumés, and Ohio State getting less credit than their historic equivalents. Noteworthy results have a way of erasing those prior treatments, though, and while our model would be surprised if the Buckeyes jumped Baton Rouge’s finest, it’s also surprised they aren’t ahead to begin with.
Does a Two-Loss Georgia Have a Chance?
Our model says yes, but not a good one. The Dawgs are 48.0% likely to make the field, though only 43.2% likely to win the SEC. This is a small enough probability that it likely depends on three or more of the following happenings: Oklahoma losing, Utah losing, Alabama losing, Clemson losing, a beneficent committee evaluation. That’s far from impossible, but also far from likely.
A One-Loss Minnesota Is In…Right?
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The truth is that we don’t really know. It appears more likely than not (Minnesota’s playoff chance is 3.7% alongside Big Ten title odds of 4.8%), but the door is open for Minnesota to beat Ohio State and still find themselves left out.
Big Ten fans can take comfort in the fact that the league is only entirely left out of the playoff in 0.7% of simulations, implying some of the Gopher gap comes from simulations in which Minnesota beats Ohio State but the Buckeyes stay ahead of the Gophers (a possibility that stems from disparities in strength of schedule and margin of victory, requiring the committee to either change its behavior from the past or get blasted for “ignoring” the most recent result). Overall, however, Minnesota is hugely unlikely to defeat both Wisconsin and Ohio State. Wisconsin’s Big Ten title probability is nearly twice that of their neighbor to the northwest. Ohio State’s, of course, is almost 18 times that of the Gophers.
Wisconsin? Oregon? Michigan? Florida? Penn State?
All five of these teams appear in the playoff in at least 0.1% of simulations. We’re justifiably receiving questions about all five. There are two answers to this:
The first is that as our model’s error margins tighten with this week’s rankings (they’ve begun tightening with every week’s rankings, as the rankings eliminate some of the committee’s uncertainty), we may see some of these (Penn State at 0.1%, Florida at 0.3%) disappear.
The second is that each of these teams have enough impressive things about them that if utter chaos unfolds (Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, Clemson loses, LSU beats Georgia, Oregon beats Utah, Baylor wins the Big 12) each could theoretically be in the mix. Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois still looks bad, but it looks better than it did at the time, and beating Ohio State, of course, would be noteworthy. Oregon would have a Power Five Champion argument. Michigan’s road thumping of Indiana impressed our model, which has consistently viewed Indiana as right on the verge of being ranked, and could similarly impress the committee (though a triumph over Ohio State would obviously be the key for them). Florida’s losses came to LSU and Georgia. Penn State’s got a nice victory over Michigan in their column.
All of these are far-fetched, and that’s why they range from one-in-a-thousand (Penn State) to one-in-27 (Wisconsin). They’re possible, though, at least until we receive confirmation that the committee treats a post-Columbus Penn State as our model expects them to be treated.
Where Will the Rankings Fall?
Here’s how our model believes this week’s top 25 will shake out. The number in parentheses is where the team falls on a scale that pegs LSU (the top-ranked team) at 100.0 and UMass (the bottom-ranked team, were these extended through the whole of the FBS) at 0.0. As you can see, the spread between seven and twelve is very, very tight.
1. LSU (100.0)
2. Ohio State (98.7)
3. Clemson (94.8)
4. Georgia (89.1)
5. Alabama (86.7)
6. Utah (85.2)
7. Michigan (84.1)
8. Florida (83.7)
9. Oklahoma (83.5)
10. Minnesota (82.6)
11. Wisconsin (82.6)
12. Penn State (82.5)
13. Notre Dame (80.7)
14. Oregon (80.2)
15. Baylor (80.2)
16. Auburn (79.3)
17. Memphis (77.2)
18. Iowa (76.8)
19. Boise State (76.8)
20. Cincinnati (75.4)
21. USC (72.8)
22. Appalachian State (72.6)
23. Navy (72.1)
24. Oklahoma State (71.9)
25. Iowa State (71.5)
How Good is Everyone?
As far as how the aggregate ratings our model uses to predict games see it, here’s how the country’s best teams stack up. The number in parentheses is the number of points by which Ohio State (the best team) would be favored were each team to play the Buckeyes on a neutral field.
1. Ohio State (0.0)
2. Alabama (3.8)
3. Clemson (4.5)
4. LSU (6.5)
5. Georgia (9.2)
6. Penn State (12.1)
7. Michigan (12.4)
8. Utah (12.4)
9. Oklahoma (12.5)
10. Florida (13.1)
11. Auburn (13.5)
12. Wisconsin (14.6)
13. Oregon (15.5)
14. Notre Dame (15.6)
15. Texas A&M (19.0)
16. Minnesota (19.2)
17. Baylor (19.2)
18. Iowa (19.7)
19. Memphis (20.3)
20. Washington (20.5)
21. Iowa State (20.9)
22. UCF (21.0)
23. USC (21.8)
24. Oklahoma State (23.2)
25. Texas (24.4)
26. Boise State (24.4)
27. Washington State (24.9)
28. TCU (25.5)
29. Appalachian State (25.6)
30. Indiana (25.7)
31. Louisiana-Lafayette (26.5)
32. Cincinnati (26.5)
33. Air Force (26.6)
34. Miami (26.6)
35. Navy (26.8)
36. Kansas State (26.8)
37. Tennessee (27.3)
38. Michigan State (27.4)
39. Virginia (27.5)
40. North Dakota State (27.5)
