SMU lost yesterday, playing just their 16th game of the season and returning from a month-long absence driven by Covid. At 11-5, with wins over Dayton and Memphis and losses to only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati, they’re in the thick of this morning’s NIT Bracketology, so as long as the committee will take a team that played so few games and the Mustangs are up for playing, the NIT may have a hometown representative.
Ish.
The NIT, as some of you may have realized, isn’t really in Dallas. And it isn’t really in Ft. Worth. It’s up in Frisco and Denton, which—while both part of the metroplex—are suburbs, with Denton the northernmost of those suburbs by the definition that suburbs have to have continuous office parks/strip malls/subdivisions between them and the city center.
This isn’t to hate on Frisco or Denton. It’s just to say that if SMU’s in the NIT, they should get some sort of home-court advantage, but it isn’t like this is being played in Highland Park. In other words, this isn’t going to be your normal NIT home-court advantage, the one with packed or empty or somewhere-in-between gyms in our nation’s not-quite-the-most-storied-but-sometimes-the-most-storied fieldhouses.
The rest of today’s NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Memphis, Toledo
Memphis might drop right back in. The Tigers are the first team out on the high side as things stand. But keep an eye on them. They’re one win away from being done for real, and they play Houston, so there isn’t much they can do at this point to save themselves from uncertainty tomorrow.
Toledo, meanwhile, likely needed one more win, barring opt-outs. They didn’t get it, falling to Buffalo yesterday in the MAC semifinals. Heartbreak for the Rockets.
Moving In: SMU, Georgetown
Georgetown! Now it’s like old times. The Hoyas are expected to lose today and are nonetheless the projected 12th overall seed, with one full normal, four-team seed line of cushion between them and the void. Great spot to be, so long as the committee’s down with a sub-.500 team (and if they aren’t, this whole bracket’s getting shaken up in a big way.
UC-Santa Barbara
The Gauchos, should they lose the Big West Championship tonight against UC-Irvine, may reverse bid thief themselves into the field and bump someone out. Be advised.
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
North Texas
Richmond
Dayton
Kentucky
North Carolina State
Toledo
Stanford
Davidson
Oregon State
Navy
Marshall
Belmont
Next out of Line:
Above the field, from closest to close:
Memphis
Colorado State
UCLA
Drake
Virginia Tech
Utah State
Louisville
Syracuse
Oklahoma
Wichita State
Maryland
Colgate
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes for today:
- Mississippi played a close one with LSU yesterday, and while the risk of getting conscripted into evil is present, our model, for one, thinks Oxford’s guys are coming with us.
- Colorado State lost to Utah State by a dozen. It probably wasn’t enough.
- Georgetown jumped in on the back of their upset of Seton Hall, but they need to avoid beating Creighton tonight to stay with us.
- Louisiana Tech and North Texas played a beautiful, 54-48 game won by the Mean Green. Louisiana Tech’s still just above our cut line. North Texas is still just below it. North Texas is expected to win today over Western Kentucky, though—at least by our model, which doesn’t know Rubin Jones is hurt.
- Oregon State has done all they can. Besides lose tonight to Colorado, of course, which would save them from the gnashing of teeth but still probably not put them in the NIT without some opt-outs.
- It was a loss to Cincinnati that put SMU in.
- It was a win over UCF that took Memphis out.
- Wichita State missed a figurative layup, coming back to beat South Florida and trash their NIT dreams (probably—they might have a shot if they lose to Cincinnati and lose badly).
- Utah State plays San Diego State in the MWC Championship. Aggies are probably toast either way, but they’ve gotta at least give it a shot and avoid the bad place.
One day away from a field. What a wait it has been.
