We covered this in other ways in this post, but James Madison and Jacksonville State could theoretically clinch bowl berths this week. As our model shows, each is likely to clinch a bowl berth next week, but it could happen this week, so we’re tracking it. Here’s the situation:
58 teams have already secured bowl eligibility, with another 39 still able to meet the bowl eligibility criteria, which is to finish the regular season 6–6 or better with a maximum of one win against an FCS team counting towards that total. Beyond those 39, five more retain a path to six wins. There’s Hawaii, who’s currently 3–7 but gets to play an extra game each season because of an NCAA exception we believe is related to travel costs. There’s Buffalo, who’s 3–7 right now but could theoretically finish 6–7 having won the MAC Championship. There’s Army, who’s 4–6, beat two FCS opponents, and can’t get its sixth win until a week after bowl destinations are determined (because of the timing of the Army/Navy game). There are James Madison and Jacksonville State, who each have already won more than six games but are still completing their transitions from the FCS to the FBS.
The NCAA has a protocol for determining which teams get bowl eligibility in the event there are more bowl slots than teams to fill them. As of 2019, the order went:
1. Teams with six wins who beat two FCS opponents.*
2. Teams who finished 6–7, including conference championship games.
3. Teams in their final year of transitioning from the FCS to the FBS who have otherwise met all requirements.
4. Teams who finished with five wins but have a good APR** score.
*There is other language here about the FCS opponent in question, so it’s possible this wouldn’t apply to Army, but Army is already an odd case for a different reason.
**APR stands for Academic Progress Rate. It’s an NCAA metric related to…academic progress.
The only teams in a straightforward position here are Hawaii and Buffalo, and some sources say Hawaii is fully bowl-eligible with a 6–7 finish. Either way, Hawaii and Buffalo are ahead of James Madison and Jacksonville State in the bowl eligibility pecking order. JMU and JSU only pass those two when and if they reach eight losses.
Army is more complicated. The Black Knights could finish 6–6 with two FCS wins, but they’d be 5–6 with two FCS wins at the time bowl matchups are set. This might leave them behind JMU and JSU, but we aren’t confident enough in our understanding of a 2019 document and isolated moments of precedent to say that for sure. Instead, we’re considering Army to be ahead of JMU and JSU for now, along with Hawaii and Buffalo. (There’s a similar potential situation developing with Navy, who doesn’t have the FCS opponent issue but is currently 4–5 with only two games remaining before bowl selections. Army and Navy may both be 5–6 when they play.)
So, there are 42 teams ahead of JMU and JSU chasing bowl eligibility, and assuming JMU gets picked before JSU, JMU needs 19 of them to not make a bowl while JSU needs 20 to come up short. This week, there are two matchups between 4–6 teams: Western Michigan plays Northern Illinois tonight, and Washington State plays Colorado on Friday. In each of those games, two more teams will become bowl-ineligible, which means JMU and JSU are really only worried about 40 teams, with JMU needing 17 of those to not make a bowl while JSU needs 18.
Between teams who could earn their seventh loss this week (or eighth, in the cases of Hawaii and Buffalo) and teams who could guarantee matchups of six-loss teams later in the season, we could guarantee as many as 18 more bowl-ineligible teams if everything went right for JMU and JSU this week. In short, if 17 of the following things happen, JMU is guaranteed of bowl eligibility by the end of the week. If all 18 happen, JSU is also guaranteed bowl eligibility. Here are the 18:
Nine of the 18 are straightforward. If these teams lose, they drop to 4–7 with no path to reaching 6–7:
- Eastern Michigan (plays Akron tonight—Tuesday)
- FAU (plays Tulane on Saturday)
- Mississippi State (plays Southern Miss)
- Rice (plays Charlotte)
- Colorado State (plays Nevada)
- TCU (plays Baylor)
- Old Dominion (plays Georgia Southern)
- Cal (plays Stanford)
- South Carolina (plays Kentucky)
In addition, there are Hawaii and Buffalo, who could each earn their eighth loss and eliminate any chance of finishing 6–7:
- Buffalo (plays Miami–Ohio tomorrow—Wednesday)
- Hawaii (plays Wyoming on Saturday)
Next, there are situations where a five-loss team right now and a six-loss team right now are scheduled to play next week (or later). If the six-loss team loses, they’re bowl-ineligible, checking another box on behalf of JMU and JSU. Even if they win, though, the five-loss team losing would guarantee a matchup of 5–6 teams, one where only one team would be able to reach 6–6 themselves. In these four situations, JMU and JSU need only one of each pair to lose:
- Army OR Navy (Army plays Coastal Carolina on Saturday; Navy plays East Carolina)
- Wake Forest OR Syracuse (Wake Forest plays Notre Dame; Syracuse plays Georgia Tech)
- Western Kentucky OR FIU (Western Kentucky plays Sam Houston; FIU plays Arkansas)
- Houston OR UCF (Houston plays Oklahoma State; UCF plays Texas Tech)
Last, there are teams whose losses could guarantee future matchups between six-loss teams, matchups that will, like those above, be guaranteed to create one more bowl-ineligible team. Unlike those, these are “AND” situations rather than “OR” situations. They include pairs of 5–5 teams, rather than a 4–6 team and a 5–5 team. Here are the three:
- Northwestern AND Illinois (Northwestern plays Purdue on Saturday; Illinois plays Iowa)
- Arkansas State AND Marshall (Arkansas State plays Texas State; Marshall plays South Alabama)
- Minnesota AND Wisconsin (Minnesota plays Ohio State; Wisconsin plays Nebraska)
It is very unlikely that 17 or 18 of these 18 scenarios all work out in JMU and JSU’s favor. So, there are additional rooting interests. These eight teams are all 5–5. The more of them that lose, the better for JMU and JSU:
- Central Michigan (plays Ohio tomorrow—Wednesday)
- USF (plays UTSA on Friday)
- BYU (plays Oklahoma on Saturday)
- Virginia Tech (plays NC State)
- Louisiana (plays Troy)
- Boise State (plays Utah State—both are 5–5, but Utah State has the easier game next week)
- Florida (plays Missouri)
- San Jose State (plays San Diego State)
Overall, between this week and next week, James Madison and Jacksonville State are highly likely to receive the help they need. But, it’s fun to cheer for things. We’ve put together the following checklists for anyone wanting to follow along at home. Good luck.
