Well, Monday, this is it. I believe this is the last time all year that you will be the day of the week hosting NIT-impacting games. Possible we’ll get a second-rounder scheduled on a Monday, but I kinda think this is the finale. What fun it’s been. From the Big Mondays to the little ones, thank you for what you’ve done for the NIT.
Let’s get to the games.
The CAA
- 6:00 PM EST: Hofstra vs. UNC Wilmington (CBSSN)
- 8:30 PM EST: College of Charleston vs. Towson (CBSSN)
This spans each of our next two categories, so we’re hitting it first.
Hofstra’s in with a loss. They’re chasing an automatic bid. Simple is simple.
Charleston’s more complicated.
Charleston probably gets an at-large bid if they lose, but we don’t know that for sure. We’d have to see the loss, see how the ratings systems react, ask the wise man in the cave on the edge of town, etc. Towson commands a lot of respect, having played in the NIT last year and therefore being a national (Invitation Tournament) brand, but we just don’t know. So, we wait.
The Lower Bubble
- 9:00 PM EST: Saint Mary’s vs. BYU (ESPN)
- 11:30 PM EST: Gonzaga vs. San Francisco (ESPN2)
This is a little more interesting.
We don’t think San Francisco has a chance. We think they’re too far out. But if they were to smoke Gonzaga, then lose close to Saint Mary’s? Maybe. Also, good excuse to stay up late drinking chocolate milk.
BYU we think does have a chance, but it’s kind of like the San Francisco situation we just described. They have to beat Saint Mary’s, ideally by a lot, and then lose to Gonzaga and hope for very few NIT automatic bids and a committee that looks kindly on how good teams are and unkindly on what they’ve done.
Which brings us to this next part.
Auto Bids on the Table
- 7:00 PM EST: Furman vs. Chattanooga (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Youngstown State vs. Northern Kentucky (ESPNU)
Furman’s in the do–or–die game, which most people call the SoCon Championship. Beat a surging UTC (very different from a surging UTI, but both can sting), and they miss the NIT. Lose, and they make it. It’s that simple.
Youngstown’s only in the Horizon League semifinals, so their situation is the same as Hofstra’s. Win tonight and they get one more chance.
Remember:
Youngstown State is named the Penguins.
Auto Bids in the Oven
- 7:00 PM EST: Oral Roberts vs. St. Thomas (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EST: South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State (ESPN+)
The Summit League’s decision, as we understand it, is to handle St. Thomas’s postseason ineligibility (they’re transitioning to D-I, they haven’t been caught for anything nefarious) by giving the NCA* *********t automatic bid, in the event the Tommies win this tournament, to Oral Roberts, the regular season champions. This means Oral Roberts is not quite playing for an NIT bid tonight, and is merely playing for the chance at one.
Fans of teams on the NIT bubble, you therefore want the following:
You want Oral Roberts to win. If that happens, you then want North Dakota State to win, giving Oral Roberts a harder game to lose in the Summit League Championship, and less of a chance at an NIT automatic bid. If that doesn’t happen, though—if St. Thomas springs the upset—you instead want South Dakota State to win, since they have a better chance of beating the Tommies.
- 6:00 PM EST: Nicholls State vs. McNeese State (ESPN+)
- 8:30 PM EST: Southeastern Louisiana vs. New Orleans (ESPN+)
These are tonight’s Southland Conference Tournament games. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s the team looking for the NIT automatic bid. They play the winner of Nicholls and McNeese tomorrow night, and fans of teams wanting AMCC to win this tournament (leaving that NIT bid for another team) would prefer McNeese win the game tonight. In the other one? It’s less clear. The worst team AMCC could play in the championship game is New Orleans, but the best team is Northwestern State, and that’s who that game’s winner plays next.
**
So, to recap:
We could get as many as three more NIT automatic bids locked in tonight. We could also see BYU and San Francisco effectively eliminated. We could also get very close to an automatic bid from Oral Roberts.
One last time, Monday. One last time.
